Sun. Aug 19th, 2018

Rainfall Warning – Threat of more Flooding continues – Comparing to 2014 and 2015

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 3:34 PM PDT Saturday 18 August 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Saturday 18 August 2018 - Saturday night: Clear. Local smoke. Low 11. Sunday: Sunny. Local smoke. High 33. Humidex 36. UV index 7 or high. Sunday night: Clear. Local smoke. Low 12. Monday: Sunny. High 34. Monday night: Clear. Low 12. Tuesday: Sunny. High 34. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 13. Wednesday: Sunny. High 24. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 14. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 21. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 13. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    22.4° C
    -1.7 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.82 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 3.2 km/h
    Humidity
    55 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    22.4° C
    Heat Index
    22.4° C
    Dewpoint
    12.9° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 20:35:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:39
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (59% full)
    Civil Set
    21:05
    Day Length
    13:22:59
    Day High
    29.8° C @ 15:23 Tdy.
    Day Low
    11.7° C @ 06:30 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.42 kPa @ 07:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.79 kPa @ 19:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    11.7° C @ 06:30 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    29.8° C @ 15:23 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 16.3km/h @ 16:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1220W/m2 @ 13:26 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    7.8 @ 13:25 Tdy.

We are back into the rain this morning.  The high res forecast shows up to 30mm is expected between 4AM Monday – 4AM Tuesday in the Valley with up to 60mm falling in the Beauforts and Sproat Lake and over 100mm-150mm in the mountains to the West and NorthWest.

Rain Scale

screen-shot-2016-11-07-at-7-55-58-am

I think it is already a little on the dry side though as it is rain pretty hard here in Nanaimo.  VIU has already received 12mm of rain even though the model only predicted a max of 8mm for the entire day so expect this picture to change a little with the morning forecast.

The same rain total patter is expected on Tuesday with 30mm in the valley and 60-100mm in the mountains.  This will all feed into the lakes and rivers.

screen-shot-2016-11-07-at-8-03-06-am

We should get a break on Wednesday, which is good. Hopefully the river levels will start to go down before the 9ft tide on Wednesday afternoon.

Speaking of which… I was at Stamp Falls Provincial Park on Sunday testing out my new Giroptic 360º camera.  If you look at the video below on your iPhone/Samsung or iPad you should be able to see it in ‘360º VR’.

Amazing water levels!  Stay tuned to the Alberniweather Youtube Channel to see more.

Comparing to 2014 and 2015 events.

This is not the first time that we have had our river areas flooded.  The first and worst time in living memory was on December 10 2014. When both the City of Port Alberni and the Tseshaht First Nation were heavily hit.

port-alberni-flooding7

Then again almost exactly a year later on December 7 2015 the river overshot its banks and threatened Tseshaht territory again.

And now here we are again… but instead of December, it is barely the beginning of November.  So lets compare the three events.

Rain Storm totals at Alberniweather December 2014

04     8.1
05     32.0
06     13.7
07     11.2
08     95.5
09    121.4
10    133.9
11     27.2
Total 443 mm

Rain Storm totals December 2015

01     27.2
02     22.6
03     38.9
04     16.0
05     66.3
06     32.0
07     6.1
Total: 209.1 mm

Rain Storm totals November 2016

01     25.4
02    74.2 
03    18.3 
04     27.9 
05    15.7 
06    11.9
Total: 171.4 mm

So we can see that we are approaching the 2015 totals and may have surpassed them now but we have not received anywhere near what we did in 2014 and we are not expected to see that amount over the next few days.  So hopefully that means we should not see major flooding like 2014.  Mother Nature can always throw you a curve ball though!

Happy Monday!