Sun. Nov 18th, 2018

Rainfall Warning Issued – Stormy and Very Wet Week Continues – Flooding Possible

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Saturday 17 November 2018 - Saturday night: Clear. Fog patches developing overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 4 overnight. Sunday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 10. UV index 1 or low. Sunday night: Clear. Fog patches overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 1. Wind chill minus 3 overnight. Monday: Sunny. High 8. Monday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 7. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 6. Thursday: Rain. High 10. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    4.5° C
    -1.5 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.61 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    ESE 3.1 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    Humidity
    91 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    4.5° C
    Heat Index
    4.5° C
    Dewpoint
    3.2° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:56
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (73% full)
    Civil Set
    17:11
    Day Length
    12:04:14
    Day High
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.9° C @ 04:38 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.87 kPa @ 08:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.61 kPa @ 17:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.5° C @ 02:24 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.0km/h @ 17:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    482W/m2 @ 12:21 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.3 @ 11:59 Tdy.

Environment Canada issued a Rainfall Warning at 3AM this morning stating the following:

Rain, at times heavy, continues.

Further rainfall amounts of 30 to 50 mm are expected today due to a slow moving Pacific frontal system. The rain will taper to a few showers early this evening when the front moves to the east.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

The UWash model now has us firmly in the pink region so up to 60mm can be expected to fall in total between last evening 4PM and Thursday 4PM.  We are currently at 43mm since the rain began and 23mm since midnight.

wa_pcp24.24.0000.gif

Keep an eye on the forecast box on the right of the page (or towards the bottom on mobile) to see when/if this warning is ended or any new warnings have been issued.  There is a good possibility we will see more warnings before the end of the weekend.

Thursday night wind in Victoria should miss us.

The low pressure centre that is going to slam into the Columbia River tonight with 120-130kph (60-75knot) winds is now slated to cross over Puget Sound which will cause winds to pick up in the Strait of Juan de Fuca off Victoria.   Strongest winds are in white in the graphics below… the centre of the storm is forecast to go right through Gray’s Harbour and Aberdeen, Washington.  A place much like Port Alberni that I passed through in the summer.

ww_wgsfc.24.0000

ww_wgsfc.27.0000

Once the low comes ashore you can see the wind gusts pick up in Seattle and off Victoria.  Gusts to 120kph/65knot expected off Victoria but nothing here thankfully.

That said, if the low decides to move a little further north, we will be in the crosshairs, so you never know.  As we found out with the rain last night and the snow on Monday, sometimes the weather does not behave exactly like our fancy models suggest.

Even More Rain and possible Wind coming Saturday.

The rain will end tonight around 9PM.  Total for this first storm may reach above 60mm.

Friday should be mostly just showery but the real rain will return on early Saturday morning and last all day and night.  It should stop Sunday morning but not before it dumps up to 100mm of rain on us (in black).

wa_pcp24.84.0000

With the ground already saturated from Thursdays downpours if this rain forecast validates we could easily experience low-level flooding or possibly worse.  This comes nearly on the anniversary of last years flooding that affected areas along the Somass River including the Tseshaht reserve. Please be prepared.

Potential Wind too.

Check out the front charging in for Saturday morning (4AM) and lasting all morning with large pockets of 65knot (120kph) winds in the offshore areas.

wgsfc.60.0000

wgsfc.63.0000 wgsfc.66.0000

It is always a crapshoot on whether that wind will reach into the Inlet and up the Harbour, but it is a possibility.  If it did so, this would potentially cause more water problems as the storm surge push water up the Inlet into the river. Unfortunately high tide is at 8AM on Saturday.

The morning model run is just starting now.  If anything changes significantly I will update this post, otherwise, I’ll likely wait until Friday nights model run to post another update on the Saturday storm.

Have a great Thursday and stay dry out there! 🙂