Wed. Oct 17th, 2018

Rain is Over – Hot Weekend on the Way

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Wednesday 17 October 2018 - Wednesday: Sunny. Fog patches early this morning. High 18. UV index 3 or moderate. Wednesday night: A few clouds. Fog patches developing after midnight. Low plus 4. Thursday: Mainly sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 17. UV index 3 or moderate. Thursday night: Fog. Low plus 4. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 17. Friday night: Fog. Low plus 5. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Saturday night: Fog. Low plus 4. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Sunday night: Fog. Low 6. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 15. Monday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Tuesday: Rain. High 14.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    6.1° C
    0.6 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.34 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    6.1° C
    Heat Index
    6.1° C
    Dewpoint
    5.8° C
    UV
    0.8
    Solar
    156 W/m2
    Last Updated: 9:55:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:10
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (59% full)
    Civil Set
    18:57
    Day Length
    13:04:30
    Day High
    7.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    4.5° C @ 05:19 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.4 kPa @ 00:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.33 kPa @ 07:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    4.5° C @ 05:19 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    7.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    193W/m2 @ 09:48 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.8 @ 09:52 Tdy.

The rain has left and we are now into a pattern of a building high pressure ridge.

You can see the high pressure field out in the Pacific in this forecast image for tomorrow morning.

slp.39.0000

That means the storm track gets pushed North and warm air will invade from the South.  And will it ever be warm… the most uncertain end of the forecast really goes for gold.

UWash Model Forecast temperatures:

  • Thursday afternoon: 17ºC
  • Friday: 17ºC
  • Saturday: 20ºC
  • Sunday: 22ºC
  • Monday: 22ºC+
  • Tuesday: 22ºC+
  • Wednesday: 26ºC+

Here is the standard (similar but less localized than UWash) GFS model.

Screen Shot 2015-04-16 at 7.52.46 AM

Foggy mornings likely.

What you can glean from the graph above is that starting on Saturday morning we will have very cool and likely foggy mornings (notice the blue Relative Humidity is near 100% every morning and doesn’t bottom out until just before noon) and then quickly heat up once the fog burns off.

Pack the sunscreen!

Without a doubt though, it will be sunny.  Pack your sunscreen.  Get out the shorts and T-shirts.  I’m sure someone will even try a dip in the still bone-chilling lake.

It’s going to be a great weekend!

If forecast temperatures change significantly, I’ll post another update, if not… happy sunning! 😀