Tue. Jan 22nd, 2019

Rain is Over – Hot Weekend on the Way

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Tuesday 22 January 2019 - Tuesday: Periods of rain. Amount 10 to 15 mm. Temperature steady near plus 3. Tuesday night: Rain ending late this evening then cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Amount 10 to 15 mm. Temperature steady near plus 3. Wednesday: Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers early in the morning. High 7. UV index 1 or low. Wednesday night: Cloudy. Low plus 2. Thursday: Cloudy. High 6. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 2. Friday: Sunny. High plus 5. Friday night: Clear. Low zero. Saturday: Sunny. High 7. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 2. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 9. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 1. Monday: Cloudy. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    2.2° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.55 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    99 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    2.2° C
    Heat Index
    2.2° C
    Dewpoint
    2.1° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 5:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    4.6 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:26
    Moon Phase
    Full (97% full)
    Civil Set
    17:35
    Day Length
    12:30:48
    Day High
    2.3° C @ 04:55 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.8° C @ 01:00 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    2.3mm/hr @ 01:47 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    102.65 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.55 kPa @ 04:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.8° C @ 01:00 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    2.3° C @ 04:55 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.7km/h @ 01:25 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

The rain has left and we are now into a pattern of a building high pressure ridge.

You can see the high pressure field out in the Pacific in this forecast image for tomorrow morning.

slp.39.0000

That means the storm track gets pushed North and warm air will invade from the South.  And will it ever be warm… the most uncertain end of the forecast really goes for gold.

UWash Model Forecast temperatures:

  • Thursday afternoon: 17ºC
  • Friday: 17ºC
  • Saturday: 20ºC
  • Sunday: 22ºC
  • Monday: 22ºC+
  • Tuesday: 22ºC+
  • Wednesday: 26ºC+

Here is the standard (similar but less localized than UWash) GFS model.

Screen Shot 2015-04-16 at 7.52.46 AM

Foggy mornings likely.

What you can glean from the graph above is that starting on Saturday morning we will have very cool and likely foggy mornings (notice the blue Relative Humidity is near 100% every morning and doesn’t bottom out until just before noon) and then quickly heat up once the fog burns off.

Pack the sunscreen!

Without a doubt though, it will be sunny.  Pack your sunscreen.  Get out the shorts and T-shirts.  I’m sure someone will even try a dip in the still bone-chilling lake.

It’s going to be a great weekend!

If forecast temperatures change significantly, I’ll post another update, if not… happy sunning! 😀