Special Weather Statement
You can see the SWS linked for our area and other areas on the forecasts. These might turn into rainfall and/or wind warnings by Saturday if the forecast continues on its present trajectory.
We’re expecting a moderate Atmospheric River. The image below shows the water vapour in the upper atmosphere being transported across the North Pacific to Vancouver Island on Saturday night. Check out the AR Portal here.
There is an Atmospheric River rating system (similar to hurricanes and earthquakes) described by the NOAA/USGS. However, I have not found a source for what ratings are currently being assigned to this event or others. If anyone has that information, please do let me know!
Saturday Morning Start
The forecast now has pretty steady rain in Port Alberni from Saturday morning onward. Here is the 2-5AM picture. You can see the rain showers centered over Port Alberni.
Expect this to continue through the morning. It might not be solid rain but it looks to be raining more than not. There should be a break of a few hours around noon and the early afternoon but then the main meat of the system will start to impact the entire Island. Expect rain to begin for good around 4-5PM, if not sooner.
The rain will intensify through the evening and overnight. It will end after midnight.
Expect gusty winds and the possibility of power outages overnight as well.
For the full event from Friday to Monday morning you can expect about 50-80mm of rain in Port Alberni. Areas on the West Coast and the North Vancouver will see 100-125mm. The mountains will see up to 200mm or more.
This could cause a flooding event in local rivers
Stay tuned to local broadcasts and information to see if any warnings are issued for local rivers.
For the most part, this should be just another fall storm, but given the precarious and sensitive nature of our landscape out there from the drought, there is cause for concern.
Stay safe out there. Thankfully, Halloween evening still looks good!
PS – Updates to Data View
Oh I almost forgot to include that I have updated the Data View. Details in the tweets below: