Update 11:30AM Monday – Timing – Rain and strong winds to start the week.

Special Weather Statement updated – Could have Wet Snow tonight

Environment Canada just updated their forecast for this afternoon and evening to include the possibility of up to 5cm of heavy, wet snow, particular on the Hump and Sutton Pass.

Beware if you are driving this afternoon. Rain may turn quickly to wet snow. Roads will be very slick.

The warm air will not come until the winds pick up Tuesday morning.

Latest model update provides more timing.

Looking at this morning’s UWash model run I thought I would update this post with when to expect things to start as the storm approaches.

Notice the difference in colour in the image below between warm yellow and cool green. This will be where the wind shifts from relatively light easterlies to strong southwester lies.

That model as that coming in the 4-7PM hour. Earlier in that period for the South Island, later for the Central and after 7PM for the North island. Temperatures should warm to over 10ºC for most regions with that southwesterly wind.

Expect winds to veer a little to the south and intensify through the morning as the low nears the tip of the Island.

I would expect winds to peak on the South Island before 10AM as the low heads further north over the Island and into the Central Coast. We should be able to watch the barometer at Cape Scott Lighthouse dip down to around 670mb as the low moves overtop.

As for an updated look at the rain.

It should already be raining in Victoria and Cowichan.

It will spread across most of the Island this morning but notice the little shadow over the Port Alberni/Alberni Valley area as the winds push East.

That shadow will disappear with the arrival of the southerly winds late this afternoon and evening. There is strong rain in the Valley and across the Island by 5PM.

Rain should end on the South Island by midnight.

But rain will return along with the wind around 7AM-8AM Tuesday morning.


That’s it. Have a great rest of your Monday!

Original Post:

Monday starts pleasant enough but don’t let it fool you. There will be plenty of rain on the way sweeping up from the south. Expect the rain to start on the South Island in the afternoon and work it’s way up

Rain Scale – Millimeters on top, centi-inches on bottom. (1024cin = 10 inches)

Heavy rain will begin on the South Island in the 1-4PM period with 16mm expected in that period in Victoria and Cowichan. You might see some rainfall warnings posted.

Heavy rain will spread across the entire central and south Island by evening with 3hr totals of up to 30mm on the higher terrain. The first wave of rain should end overnight but there will probably be some wind to replace it, and it won’t be long before the second rain wave comes in.

By 7AM Tuesday, the main storm is lurking off the coast. And it’s a doozy. Rain, showers, and wind will lash the coast and Island all morning as a low moves toward the North end of the Island by about 10AM.

It is expected to cross over Cape Scott around noon. Thankfully, if this track stays this far north, the winds should not be as bad as they could be for most populated areas but you should still expect some ferry cancellations.

However, predicting the final position of these low pressure centres is difficult, so expect blustery winds up to 40-50kph and possibly damaging winds over 70kph on the coast, Salish sea and exposed area if the track moves south at all.

There is another chance of wind on Wednesday evening as a weaker low moves across south Vancouver Island.

This will bring some heavy but short lived rain to parts of the Island as well! Finally, the models are also suggesting a strong storm over the South Island next Monday!

In short, batten down the hatches and grab the wind proof umbrellas. It might be a soggy and wind blown week!

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