February 27, 2021

UPDATED 11AM – Possible Active Thunderstorm Day Thursday

UPDATE 11AM Model Backs off on Thunderstorms.

The morning model is out and it has backed off quick a bit from the activity predicted in yesterday evening’s model.

The thunderstorm activity is now forecast to be much more isolated and the only population centre with a likelihood to hear thunder is Campbell River.

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 11.04.57 AM Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 11.05.03 AM Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 11.05.09 AM

 

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There is a good chance for thunderstorm activity all along the East Coast of the Island and in the Central areas from Strathcona to Mt. Arrowsmith as well.

Here are the CAPE forecasts from last nights model run.  I will update the images if they change significantly at the 11AM update.  It is safe to assume locally heavy rain to accompany the cells wherever they may pop up.

Starting from this morning when the activity begins on the West Coast of the Island between 8-11AM.

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 8.37.32 AM

It then moves across the Island with the main focus in the Campbell River Area with some patches scattered throughout the inland high elevation areas between 11AM and 2PM

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 8.37.23 AM

It then spreads east and south along the Coast and near Mt. Arrowsmith between 2PM-5PM.

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 8.35.14 AM

It ends after 5PM.

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 8.37.42 AM

 

There is a slight chance of some thunder activity on Friday but Thursday is the biggest day.