Mon. Oct 22nd, 2018

UPDATED 11AM – Possible Active Thunderstorm Day Thursday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Sunday 21 October 2018 - Sunday night: A few clouds. Fog developing near midnight. Low plus 4. Monday: Fog dissipating in the morning then a mix of sun and cloud. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Monday night: Clear. Fog patches overnight. Low plus 4. Tuesday: Increasing cloudiness. High 16. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 9. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 13. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 8. Thursday: Rain. High 12. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low 8. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 12. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 13.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    11.2° C
    -1.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.52 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    91 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    11.2° C
    Heat Index
    11.2° C
    Dewpoint
    9.8° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 20:00:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:16
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (93% full)
    Civil Set
    18:50
    Day Length
    13:03:47
    Day High
    17.7° C @ 16:16 Tdy.
    Day Low
    6.5° C @ 08:10 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.88 kPa @ 00:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.46 kPa @ 16:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    4.9° C @ 08:13 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    17.7° C @ 16:16 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3.4km/h @ 08:15 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    615W/m2 @ 13:24 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    2.5 @ 13:21 Tdy.

UPDATE 11AM Model Backs off on Thunderstorms.

The morning model is out and it has backed off quick a bit from the activity predicted in yesterday evening’s model.

The thunderstorm activity is now forecast to be much more isolated and the only population centre with a likelihood to hear thunder is Campbell River.

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 11.04.57 AM Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 11.05.03 AM Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 11.05.09 AM

 

_______ ORIGINAL POST ______

There is a good chance for thunderstorm activity all along the East Coast of the Island and in the Central areas from Strathcona to Mt. Arrowsmith as well.

Here are the CAPE forecasts from last nights model run.  I will update the images if they change significantly at the 11AM update.  It is safe to assume locally heavy rain to accompany the cells wherever they may pop up.

Starting from this morning when the activity begins on the West Coast of the Island between 8-11AM.

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 8.37.32 AM

It then moves across the Island with the main focus in the Campbell River Area with some patches scattered throughout the inland high elevation areas between 11AM and 2PM

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 8.37.23 AM

It then spreads east and south along the Coast and near Mt. Arrowsmith between 2PM-5PM.

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 8.35.14 AM

It ends after 5PM.

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 8.37.42 AM

 

There is a slight chance of some thunder activity on Friday but Thursday is the biggest day.