Tue. Jul 16th, 2019

UPDATED 11AM – Possible Active Thunderstorm Day Thursday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 15 July 2019 - Monday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers early this evening with risk of thunderstorms. Low 15. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers in the morning. High 25. Humidex 27. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning in the evening. Low 14. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    15.6° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.65 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    91 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    15.6° C
    Heat Index
    15.6° C
    Dewpoint
    14.1° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 3:00:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    04:49
    Moon Phase
    Full (100% full)
    Civil Set
    22:00
    Day Length
    13:25:19
    Day High
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.7 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.65 kPa @ 02:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 01:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

UPDATE 11AM Model Backs off on Thunderstorms.

The morning model is out and it has backed off quick a bit from the activity predicted in yesterday evening’s model.

The thunderstorm activity is now forecast to be much more isolated and the only population centre with a likelihood to hear thunder is Campbell River.

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 11.04.57 AM Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 11.05.03 AM Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 11.05.09 AM

 

_______ ORIGINAL POST ______

There is a good chance for thunderstorm activity all along the East Coast of the Island and in the Central areas from Strathcona to Mt. Arrowsmith as well.

Here are the CAPE forecasts from last nights model run.  I will update the images if they change significantly at the 11AM update.  It is safe to assume locally heavy rain to accompany the cells wherever they may pop up.

Starting from this morning when the activity begins on the West Coast of the Island between 8-11AM.

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 8.37.32 AM

It then moves across the Island with the main focus in the Campbell River Area with some patches scattered throughout the inland high elevation areas between 11AM and 2PM

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 8.37.23 AM

It then spreads east and south along the Coast and near Mt. Arrowsmith between 2PM-5PM.

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 8.35.14 AM

It ends after 5PM.

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 8.37.42 AM

 

There is a slight chance of some thunder activity on Friday but Thursday is the biggest day.