May 26, 2020

UPDATED 11AM – Possible Active Thunderstorm Day Thursday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 25 May 2020 - Monday night: Mainly cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low 10. Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers early in the morning. Clearing in the morning. High 22. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: A few clouds. Low plus 4. Wednesday: Sunny. High 25. Wednesday night: Cloudy. Low 12. Thursday: Sunny. High 28. Thursday night: Cloudy. Low 12. Friday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 23. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 18.

UPDATE 11AM Model Backs off on Thunderstorms.

The morning model is out and it has backed off quick a bit from the activity predicted in yesterday evening’s model.

The thunderstorm activity is now forecast to be much more isolated and the only population centre with a likelihood to hear thunder is Campbell River.

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 11.04.57 AM Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 11.05.03 AM Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 11.05.09 AM

 

_______ ORIGINAL POST ______

There is a good chance for thunderstorm activity all along the East Coast of the Island and in the Central areas from Strathcona to Mt. Arrowsmith as well.

Here are the CAPE forecasts from last nights model run.  I will update the images if they change significantly at the 11AM update.  It is safe to assume locally heavy rain to accompany the cells wherever they may pop up.

Starting from this morning when the activity begins on the West Coast of the Island between 8-11AM.

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It then moves across the Island with the main focus in the Campbell River Area with some patches scattered throughout the inland high elevation areas between 11AM and 2PM

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 8.37.23 AM

It then spreads east and south along the Coast and near Mt. Arrowsmith between 2PM-5PM.

Screen Shot 2016-09-01 at 8.35.14 AM

It ends after 5PM.

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There is a slight chance of some thunder activity on Friday but Thursday is the biggest day.