Wed. Jun 26th, 2019

Updated 6AM Friday — Plenty of snow in the forecast but probabilities and amounts unsure. Freezing rain possible Sunday Night.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Wednesday 26 June 2019 - Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers this afternoon with risk of a thunderstorm. High 24. UV index 7 or high. Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Rain beginning before morning. Risk of a thunderstorm early this evening. Low 11. Thursday: Rain. High 14. UV index 2 or low. Thursday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Friday: Cloudy. High 20. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Saturday: Sunny. High 23. Saturday night: Clear. Low 10. Sunday: Sunny. High 24. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low 13. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    23.0° C
    1.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.03 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NE 9.7 km/h
    gusting 24.1 km/h
    Humidity
    44 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    23.0° C
    Heat Index
    23.0° C
    Dewpoint
    10.1° C
    UV
    5.6
    Solar
    984 W/m2
    Last Updated: 14:55:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:30
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (36% full)
    Civil Set
    22:13
    Day Length
    13:22:06
    Day High
    23.1° C @ 14:14 Tdy.
    Day Low
    10.0° C @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.29 kPa @ 06:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.03 kPa @ 14:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    10.0° C @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    23.1° C @ 14:14 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 14.5km/h @ 14:45 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1195W/m2 @ 12:28 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    6.5 @ 12:28 Tdy.

Update 6AM Friday

Update: road report: it was snowing and sticking on the west side of the hump. Snow covered. But the east side and all the way to qualicum was clear and just wet. In Parksville it is dry…

2cm on the ground and still snowing. I think EC officially wins! The heaviest precipitation will be around 9AM this morning and there is a chance of freezing rain so be very careful out there.

 

Heaviest precip is likely in the 9AM hour. Watch for heavy snow or possible freezing rain.

 

 

Update 3:15PM Thursday

 

Original post

Environment Canada (EC) has up to 14cm of snow falling overnight tonight and through Friday. We have had big predictions this winter with nothing come of them, but we have some seriously cold air hanging around so the probabilities should be higher this time as long as the precipitation actually materializes… but there’s the rub.

The UWash and other models are very split on whether we even get any precipitation at all.

UWash says no low elevation snow for the Valley at all between now and 4PM Saturday.

And that is probably because it also shows no precipitation at all for any of the populated low lying areas.  Port Alberni shows less than 2mm falling but more if you are in the Sproat Lake or Beaver Creek areas.

So unless these models change drastically this morning I am not expecting 14cm to fall between now and Friday or Saturday in Port Alberni or on the East side of the Island.  I would not expect any at all.  BUT that does not mean we should not prepare for the possibility.

The greater threat for precipitation will be on Sunday night and Monday when a much stronger system comes in from the southwest.

If there is still any cold air around by Sunday evening then this is where we could really get some snowfall and likely some freezing rain too but the UWash has us warming up enough that there is very little snowfall for our area on its charts.

I will leave the snow lovers with some hope though… Here is what the Canadian GEM model says over at SpotX.  And it has been consistent on this for days… but is also rarely right!

One foot (30cm) by Monday and almost another foot through next week.  Hey, you can dream.