Overnight snow threat for east coast remains.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 11:09 AM PST Thursday 22 February 2018

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PST Thursday 22 February 2018 - Thursday: Sunny. High plus 5. Thursday night: Increasing cloudiness. Low minus 5. Friday: Cloudy. Snow beginning early in the morning. Snow mixed with rain late in the afternoon. Snowfall amount 5 to 10 cm. High plus 2. Friday night: Periods of snow. Low minus 3. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 8. Saturday night: Periods of rain or snow. Low zero. Sunday: Showers. High plus 5. Sunday night: Cloudy periods with 40 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 2. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 8. Monday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low plus 1. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7.

  • Today's conditions as of ... time not working right since Tsunami... but data below is fresh. 🙂

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    N 49° 14' 46.1" :: W 124° 47' 60" at 30 m Google View

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If you are planning to go anywhere over the hump on Saturday you will want to keep an eye on the highway webcams and weather reports.  The threat of snowfall anywhere on the east side of the Island remains overnight.  The most likely place for snow right now seems to be in the Ladysmith area or just south.

The models from last night are pretty much bang on with this morning’s radar.

The model shows the front moving away toward the south east.
The model shows the front moving away toward the south east at 7AM.
The current radar picture is nearly identical.  I'd say it is maybe a few tens of kilometres delayed compared to the model, but it's hardly signficant.  Impressive.
The current (6:30AM) radar picture is nearly identical. I’d say it is maybe a few tens of kilometres delayed compared to the model, but it’s hardly signficant. Impressive.

Temperatures are dropping quickly as the front passes and the northwest winds pick up steam.  As you can see on the islandweather.ca map, it is 6°C in Victoria but 0°C in Campbell River.

You can see the front pass on the temperature map at islandweather.ca as well.  Cold coming down from the north.
You can see the front pass on the temperature map at islandweather.ca as well. Cold coming down from the north.

The question is whether the pictures below will pan out:

The flurries begin over the Strait as the wind shift to outflow from the Fraser Valley and Howe Sound around 10PM tonight.
The flurries begin over the Strait as the wind shift to outflow from the Fraser Valley and Howe Sound around 10PM tonight.
he cold air and moisture gains some strength by 1AM. These setups can be very localized. The model is putting the greatest possibility just south of Ladysmith but it will be very localized.
The cold air and moisture gains some strength by 1AM. These setups can be very localized. The model is putting the greatest possibility just south of Ladysmith but it will be very localized.
The cold air and moisture gains some strength by 1AM.  These setups can be very localized.  The model is putting the greatest possibility just south of Ladysmith but it will be very localized.
By 4AM it is starting to wind down as the atmosphere dries out. Nothing predicted to reach the Alberni Valley at all.

 

Here is the total accumulation:

 

The faint grey areas are between 1-10cm.  There are a few spots slightly North and south of Nanaimo that may have a 2-3cm of snow on the ground Saturday.  There is one pocket of purple south of Ladysmith that is in the 10cm range, which could make for dangerous driving.
The faint grey areas are between 1-10cm. There are a few spots slightly North and south of Nanaimo that may have a 2-3cm of snow on the ground Saturday. There is one pocket of purple south of Ladysmith that is in the 10cm range, which could make for dangerous driving.

Enjoy the Christmas-y weather everyone.  Please take your time on the roads if you have to go but maybe even consider if you are shopping out of town if maybe you could find something in a local business or craft fair. 🙂 you might even get a gift from the Alberni Chamber!

Happy Final Friday of November!

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