Mon. Oct 22nd, 2018

Overnight snow threat for east coast remains.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Monday 22 October 2018 - Monday: Cloudy. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud near noon. Fog dissipating near noon. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Monday night: Clear. Fog patches developing near midnight. Low plus 4. Tuesday: Sunny. Increasing cloudiness in the afternoon then showers. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 14. UV index 2 or low. Tuesday night: Showers. Low 8. Wednesday: Showers. High 12. Wednesday night: Periods of rain. Low 9. Thursday: Showers. High 11. Thursday night: Rain. Low 7. Friday: Showers. High 14. Friday night: Periods of rain. Low 7. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 13. Saturday night: Periods of rain. Low 8. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 13.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    7.0° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.61 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    99 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    7.0° C
    Heat Index
    7.0° C
    Dewpoint
    6.9° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    51 W/m2
    Last Updated: 9:35:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:17
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (96% full)
    Civil Set
    18:48
    Day Length
    13:03:38
    Day High
    7.4° C @ 01:51 Tdy.
    Day Low
    6.1° C @ 05:15 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.62 kPa @ 02:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.56 kPa @ 04:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    6.1° C @ 05:15 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    7.4° C @ 01:51 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    54W/m2 @ 09:29 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Note: webcam is offline until further notice due to renovations, current conditions only only between 5PM and 8AM.

If you are planning to go anywhere over the hump on Saturday you will want to keep an eye on the highway webcams and weather reports.  The threat of snowfall anywhere on the east side of the Island remains overnight.  The most likely place for snow right now seems to be in the Ladysmith area or just south.

The models from last night are pretty much bang on with this morning’s radar.

The model shows the front moving away toward the south east.
The model shows the front moving away toward the south east at 7AM.
The current radar picture is nearly identical.  I'd say it is maybe a few tens of kilometres delayed compared to the model, but it's hardly signficant.  Impressive.
The current (6:30AM) radar picture is nearly identical. I’d say it is maybe a few tens of kilometres delayed compared to the model, but it’s hardly signficant. Impressive.

Temperatures are dropping quickly as the front passes and the northwest winds pick up steam.  As you can see on the islandweather.ca map, it is 6°C in Victoria but 0°C in Campbell River.

You can see the front pass on the temperature map at islandweather.ca as well.  Cold coming down from the north.
You can see the front pass on the temperature map at islandweather.ca as well. Cold coming down from the north.

The question is whether the pictures below will pan out:

The flurries begin over the Strait as the wind shift to outflow from the Fraser Valley and Howe Sound around 10PM tonight.
The flurries begin over the Strait as the wind shift to outflow from the Fraser Valley and Howe Sound around 10PM tonight.
he cold air and moisture gains some strength by 1AM. These setups can be very localized. The model is putting the greatest possibility just south of Ladysmith but it will be very localized.
The cold air and moisture gains some strength by 1AM. These setups can be very localized. The model is putting the greatest possibility just south of Ladysmith but it will be very localized.
The cold air and moisture gains some strength by 1AM.  These setups can be very localized.  The model is putting the greatest possibility just south of Ladysmith but it will be very localized.
By 4AM it is starting to wind down as the atmosphere dries out. Nothing predicted to reach the Alberni Valley at all.

 

Here is the total accumulation:

 

The faint grey areas are between 1-10cm.  There are a few spots slightly North and south of Nanaimo that may have a 2-3cm of snow on the ground Saturday.  There is one pocket of purple south of Ladysmith that is in the 10cm range, which could make for dangerous driving.
The faint grey areas are between 1-10cm. There are a few spots slightly North and south of Nanaimo that may have a 2-3cm of snow on the ground Saturday. There is one pocket of purple south of Ladysmith that is in the 10cm range, which could make for dangerous driving.

Enjoy the Christmas-y weather everyone.  Please take your time on the roads if you have to go but maybe even consider if you are shopping out of town if maybe you could find something in a local business or craft fair. 🙂 you might even get a gift from the Alberni Chamber!

Happy Final Friday of November!

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