December 4, 2022

Where’s that moisture?

It looks like the rain either hasn’t come yet or is going to miss us completely. A bummer. I was hopeful this morning when we had some strong winds that it would signal at least some moisture falling from the sky. The picture on Windy is looking pretty dry for the mid-Island aside from the Tahsis and Gold River area.

The Island Weather map shows there hasn’t been any rain recorded on the mid and South Island at all.

One more warm weekend coming, then, a storm?

The good news is it’s going to clear up and we’ll have one more warm weekend with temperatures up to 28ºC on Sunday and Monday before it cools off on Wednesday to more seasonal highs around 15ºC, clouds and possible showers.

The models are showing a possibility of a storm approaching the coast on Wednesday. Where it makes landfall later in the week is still too early to know. Below are two models, the ECMWF and the GFS.

ECMWF model Sept 23 for Tuesday
GFS model Sept 23 for Tuesday

The ECMWF appears to have a slightly weaker system moving on a more southerly course landing in Washington, whereas the GFS has a stronger but more northerly prediction landing on the North or Central Coast of BC. That’s a very big difference so we’ll see how things play out. This could be our first storm of the season, or it might miss us completely.

Falling Barometers around Fiona

There is little uncertainty about Hurricane Fiona hitting the East Coast of Canada. It is a potentially catastrophic storm on par or worse than Hurricane Juan in 2003 (referred to then as a ‘once in a generation’ storm).

Well, here we are, and Fiona might beat Juan as the most devastating storm to ever hit that part of the world. Current winds in the storm are peaking around 200kph as it moves closer to landfall near Cape Breton.

The models are predicting winds off Sydney, NS of up to 115kph and off of PEI of over 100kph overnight tonight.

It will also lash the provinces with rain.

Quite a way to start the fall storm season.

Come say Hi at Tyee Landing.

I’ll be down at Tyee Landing on Saturday at 2PM showing off an idea to restore the Somass Lands to its original Dry Creek Estuary and shoreline. You can find out more information on the AV Transition Town website. See you there!

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