Thu. Sep 20th, 2018

Next up: Jet Stream and Atmospheric River. Special Weather Statement Issued

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 4:25 PM PDT Thursday 20 September 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Thursday 20 September 2018 - Thursday night: Rain at times heavy. Amount 15 to 25 mm. Temperature steady near 12. Friday: Periods of rain. Risk of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Amount 10 to 20 mm. High 15. UV index 1 or low. Friday night: Periods of rain. Amount 10 to 20 mm. Low 12. Saturday: Rain. High 16. Saturday night: Showers. Low 11. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Sunday night: Clear. Low 8. Monday: Sunny. High 21. Monday night: Clear. Low 7. Tuesday: Sunny. High 20. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 8. Wednesday: Sunny. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    13.5° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.76 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    95 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    13.5° C
    Heat Index
    13.5° C
    Dewpoint
    12.7° C
    UV
    0.6
    Solar
    71 W/m2
    Last Updated: 16:45:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    5.1 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:30
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (85% full)
    Civil Set
    19:53
    Day Length
    13:12:31
    Day High
    13.7° C @ 15:31 Tdy.
    Day Low
    11.7° C @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    7.6mm/hr @ 12:58 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.98 kPa @ 08:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.76 kPa @ 16:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    11.7° C @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    13.7° C @ 15:31 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 1.6km/h @ 05:10 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    299W/m2 @ 15:23 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.8 @ 15:22 Tdy.

It has been a glorious Family Day afternoon once the fog lifted!

I hope you were all able to soak up those rays of sunshine, because in the next 24 hours it’s going to be soaking in a different way.

Here is the text from the Special Weather Statement just issued by Environment Canada for Inland Vancouver Island.

A Pacific frontal system associated with a stream of sub-tropical moisture will bring a prolonged period of rain to the BC South Coast beginning late Tuesday, along with the potential for strong winds.

Uncertainty remains concerning the development and track of this frontal system, which are important factors determining the location of heaviest rainfall and strongest winds. However, there is good confidence that heavy rain will begin late Tuesday. Coastal and west facing slopes have the potential to exceed 100 mm of rainfall from late Tuesday through early Thursday.

Freezing levels will remain above 3000 metres at the coast and many alpine areas will see heavy rain. The snowpack is expected to absorb this rain event mitigating river flooding impacts. The River Forecast Centre will be monitoring this rain event and may issue a high streamflow advisory (http://bcrfc.env.gov.bc.ca/warnings).

At lower elevations, especially in the Fraser Valley, local low land flooding could be a concern as melting snow on the ground combines with the expected rainfall accumulations. Keep drains free of ice or debris.

Strong winds combined with heavy rain may lead to power outages.

Here is what the latest from the UWash model says about timing and intensity for Vancouver Island.

Rain is expected to begin before 1PM on Tuesday and will intensify in the 7-10PM period with up to 16mm falling in that 3 hours and every three hours from then until 7AM Thursday,

That means in that 12 hour period between 7PM Tuesday and 7AM Wednesday we could see as much as 64mm of rain.

The image below shows up to 65mm of rain (pink) falling in the 24 hours between 4PM Tuesday and 4PM Wednesday.  Or up to 130mm (black) of rain falling at higher elevations.

It will continue to be rainy and drizzly through Wednesday evening and Thursday but we should hopefully dry out for the weekend.

We might also see some gusty winds, but most of the heaviest winds seem to be focused on the North Island on Tuesday and Oregon and Washington State on Thursday.