Mostly soggy week

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Friday 23 February 2018 - Friday night: A few flurries and rain showers ending near midnight then clearing. Low minus 3. Saturday: Sunny. Increasing cloudiness in the afternoon then 60 percent chance of showers late in the afternoon. High 7. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low zero. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. High 7. Sunday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low minus 2. Monday: Cloudy. High 8. Monday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low plus 1. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 2. Wednesday: Rain. High 7. Wednesday night: Rain or snow. Low plus 1. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7.

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    N 49° 14' 46.1" :: W 124° 47' 60" at 30 m Google View

A warm but soggy week awaits us.

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday Friday rain.

We are in for a straight week of wet stuff.

The models show Monday’s rain starting just after 7AM.

 

7-8AM rain Monday.
7-8AM rain Monday.

it should continue until around 3PM with accumulations around 8mm.

Light showers should begin again late Tuesday morning and lasting through the day with accumulations around 4mm.

A stronger system will arrive Wednesday around noon and deliver more significant contributions through Thursday.

The two day total   from 4AM Wednesday to 4AM Friday will be around 60mm.  With most of that falling Wednesday night into Thursday.

2 day total rainfall 60mm Wednesday through Thursday.
2 day total rainfall 60mm Wednesday through Thursday.

The model sees a slight break in the rain Thursday night but then we are right back into it on Friday with another strong push of rain lasting all the way through the weekend.

Possible severe rain on Weekend.

The model has amounts up to 120mm for the west coast for each of Saturday and Sunday.  So we will want to watch that.  It is still too far in the forecast to be certain.

Temperatures remain too high for snow.

If you are hoping for snow for skiing or for the snowpack in general it doesn’t look good this week.  The first couple waves of light rain might fall as snow in higher elevations but by late week the bigger pushes should be all warm and wet for all areas.

The Jump Creek snowpack monitoring station south of Mt. Arrowsmith remains at zero much like it was last year at this time.

Snowpack (dark blue) measured at Jump Creek south of Mt. Arrowsmith as of Sunday.
Snowpack (dark blue) measured at Jump Creek south of Mt. Arrowsmith as of Sunday.

By this time last year we did have a small amount of snow but the big jump didn’t happen until the 2nd week of February.  Let’s hope we get that jump sooner rather than later.

Have a wonderful week! Umbrellas ready!