Tue. Jul 23rd, 2019

More than 70 entries for the First Snow contest! New prizes and the forecast.

We’ve had the most entries in the contest ever! Thanks everyone.  I did take one late entry from Cathy McDonald who offered up a prize of a 5lb box of frozen blueberries from her Avalon Farms! Thank you so much Cathy! Once I figure out what the prizes are worth I’ll update the contest post with which ones are 1st, 2nd and 3rd prize.  Thank you to Kari, Joanne and Cathy for your donations! We have come a long way since the times when I went and bought snow shovels or Christmas lights! 🙂

So when do I think the first snowfall is going to happen this year? Well here are the dates for the last few years: (I can’t seem to find 2016 and 2009j

  • Dec 18, 2017
  • Dec 21, 2015
  • Nov 28, 2014
  • Dec 19, 2013
  • Dec 18, 2012
  • Nov 16, 2011
  • Nov 25, 2010
  • Dec 12, 2008

Given history it seems a pretty solid guess would be anywhere in the 2nd week of December, or maybe the last week of November.

We often go in cycles of a week or two of rainy warm weather followed by a week or two of cold and dry weather and our best chances for snow generally come on the transitions betweem the two.

Looking at the long range forecast from SpotX, I think it is safe to say we are not likely to get snow before the end of November. We seem to be heading into a warm and wet pattern but we might have temperatures close enough to freezing by the end of the month to give us a chance for snow.

So my personal prediction is going to be December 3rd for the first measureable snowfall of this season. We’ll see! 🙂

Rain coming Tuesday

As for this weeks forecast. Expect rain to start Tuesday afternoon.

We may see as much as 20mm by Wednesday with most of that falling between 1-4PM and 4-7PM in Port Alberni plus a little overnight. 

We shouldn’t see too much rain the rest of the week in the Valley but there will be showers across the Island until Friday. The weekend currently looks dry according to UWash and temperatures are mild.

Have a wonderful Monday!

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