Mon. Sep 16th, 2019

Updated 9PM: More rain off and on, then concerning rain Saturday/Sunday.

Up to 60mm is likely between 4PM Froday and Saturday. Mostly falling Saturday.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Monday 16 September 2019 - Monday: Mainly cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 17. UV index 4 or moderate. Monday night: Cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers this evening. Rain beginning near midnight. Low 12. Tuesday: Rain ending in the morning then cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 19. Thursday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Friday: Cloudy. High 22. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 19. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Sunday: Cloudy. High 18.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    18.1° C
    -0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.77 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSW 3 km/h
    gusting 10 km/h
    Humidity
    65 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    18.1° C
    Heat Index
    18.1° C
    Dewpoint
    11.4° C
    UV
    1.9
    Solar
    292 W/m2
    Last Updated: 15:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    30.2 mm since
    September 12, 2019 00:09
    Civil Rise
    06:23
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (93% full)
    Civil Set
    20:03
    Day Length
    13:14:01
    Day High
    19.2° C @ 13:09 Tdy.
    Day Low
    9.6° C @ 02:35 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    100.98 kPa @ 09:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.77 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    9.6° C @ 02:35 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    19.2° C @ 13:09 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 8km/h @ 14:45 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    958W/m2 @ 12:22 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.9 @ 13:32 Tdy.

Updated 9PM Wed: It may not stop raining.

Seriously, check it out yourself…  The latest UW model indicates less than 1 or 2 one hour periods between Thursday at 11AM and Sunday at 4AM where rain will not accumulate.

The GFS model over at Spotx is a little more kind, but still predicts 100mm between now and Sunday, plus some gusty winds on Thursday and Saturday evenings.

Rainfall amounts rise steadily with bigger pulses Thursday evening and Saturday
Rainfall amounts rise steadily with bigger pulses Thursday evening and Saturday
Gusts around 70kph predicted Thursday and Saturday
Gusts around 70kph predicted Thursday and Saturday

I’ll have another update Friday… but ya, hope you haven’t put away the sou’wester!

However… UWash has backed off a bit on its total rainfall.  Still predicting 30mm between 4PM Thurs/Friday but “only” another 30 Fri/Sat.   We’ll see what we get.

 


 

The rain continues.

It will rain most of the day on Wednesday and finally let up around 6PM tonight.

We should get through most of Thursday dry but by sundown it will begin to rain again, and rain quite hard most of Thursday night.

Totals between 4PM Thursday and Friday:

4PM Thursday to 4PM  Friday totals to 32 mm
4PM Thursday to 4PM Friday totals to 32 mm

32 mm is expected.  I will update this if the estimates change drastically.

We should get a few breaks on Friday but come Saturday and Sunday we can expect even more rain to fall right through the weekend.

Saturday a Concern:

Up to 30-60mm is likely between 4PM Froday and Saturday.  Mostly falling Saturday.
Up to 30-60mm is likely between 4PM Froday and Saturday. Mostly falling Saturday.

The hills and rivers haven’t had a ton of time to dry out from the historic storms of last week, so there should be some concern with the strength of the storm coming on Saturday.  It will linger through Sunday but not with large accumulations.

Again I will update this post if the forecast changes substantially.  And I will have another post on Friday to nail things down.

Thankfully, we should dry right out on Monday and then have a short and less intense rain on Tuesday before Christmas.  It is not looking good for snow on Christmas.  I’d recommend heading up the mountains if you are in need of white. 🙂