Mon. Nov 19th, 2018

Updated 9PM: More rain off and on, then concerning rain Saturday/Sunday.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Sunday 18 November 2018 - Sunday night: Clear. Fog patches developing overnight. Low zero. Monday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 10. UV index 1 or low. Monday night: Clear. Increasing cloudiness overnight. Low zero. Tuesday: Cloudy. High 8. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 4. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Showers. Low plus 5. Thursday: Rain. High 9. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 4. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 4. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    1.9° C
    -0.8 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.17 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    ENE 4.1 km/h
    gusting 6.4 km/h
    Humidity
    96 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    1.9° C
    Heat Index
    1.9° C
    Dewpoint
    1.4° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:55:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:58
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (81% full)
    Civil Set
    17:10
    Day Length
    12:04:26
    Day High
    4.9° C @ 15:31 Tdy.
    Day Low
    0.5° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.56 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.15 kPa @ 18:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    -1.4° C @ 07:48 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    4.9° C @ 15:31 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 4.8km/h @ 18:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    234W/m2 @ 15:11 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.7 @ 11:31 Tdy.

Updated 9PM Wed: It may not stop raining.

Seriously, check it out yourself…  The latest UW model indicates less than 1 or 2 one hour periods between Thursday at 11AM and Sunday at 4AM where rain will not accumulate.

The GFS model over at Spotx is a little more kind, but still predicts 100mm between now and Sunday, plus some gusty winds on Thursday and Saturday evenings.

Rainfall amounts rise steadily with bigger pulses Thursday evening and Saturday
Rainfall amounts rise steadily with bigger pulses Thursday evening and Saturday
Gusts around 70kph predicted Thursday and Saturday
Gusts around 70kph predicted Thursday and Saturday

I’ll have another update Friday… but ya, hope you haven’t put away the sou’wester!

However… UWash has backed off a bit on its total rainfall.  Still predicting 30mm between 4PM Thurs/Friday but “only” another 30 Fri/Sat.   We’ll see what we get.

 


 

The rain continues.

It will rain most of the day on Wednesday and finally let up around 6PM tonight.

We should get through most of Thursday dry but by sundown it will begin to rain again, and rain quite hard most of Thursday night.

Totals between 4PM Thursday and Friday:

4PM Thursday to 4PM  Friday totals to 32 mm
4PM Thursday to 4PM Friday totals to 32 mm

32 mm is expected.  I will update this if the estimates change drastically.

We should get a few breaks on Friday but come Saturday and Sunday we can expect even more rain to fall right through the weekend.

Saturday a Concern:

Up to 30-60mm is likely between 4PM Froday and Saturday.  Mostly falling Saturday.
Up to 30-60mm is likely between 4PM Froday and Saturday. Mostly falling Saturday.

The hills and rivers haven’t had a ton of time to dry out from the historic storms of last week, so there should be some concern with the strength of the storm coming on Saturday.  It will linger through Sunday but not with large accumulations.

Again I will update this post if the forecast changes substantially.  And I will have another post on Friday to nail things down.

Thankfully, we should dry right out on Monday and then have a short and less intense rain on Tuesday before Christmas.  It is not looking good for snow on Christmas.  I’d recommend heading up the mountains if you are in need of white. 🙂