Thu. Sep 20th, 2018

Updated 9PM: More rain off and on, then concerning rain Saturday/Sunday.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 05:42 AM PDT Thursday 20 September 2018

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Thursday 20 September 2018 - Thursday: Cloudy. Rain beginning this morning. Amount 10 to 15 mm. High 14. UV index 1 or low. Thursday night: Rain. Amount 20 to 30 mm. Temperature steady near 12. Friday: Showers at times heavy. Risk of a thunderstorm late in the morning and early afternoon. Amount 25 mm. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Friday night: Showers. Low 11. Saturday: Rain. High 16. Saturday night: Showers. Low 11. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Sunday night: Clear. Low 8. Monday: Sunny. High 21. Monday night: Clear. Low 7. Tuesday: Sunny. High 20. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 8. Wednesday: Sunny. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    13.2° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.94 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    90 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    13.2° C
    Heat Index
    13.2° C
    Dewpoint
    11.6° C
    UV
    1.3
    Solar
    163 W/m2
    Last Updated: 11:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:30
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (83% full)
    Civil Set
    19:53
    Day Length
    13:12:31
    Day High
    13.2° C @ 10:27 Tdy.
    Day Low
    11.7° C @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.98 kPa @ 08:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.87 kPa @ 01:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    11.7° C @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    13.2° C @ 10:27 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 1.6km/h @ 05:10 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    178W/m2 @ 10:44 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.3 @ 11:17 Tdy.

Updated 9PM Wed: It may not stop raining.

Seriously, check it out yourself…  The latest UW model indicates less than 1 or 2 one hour periods between Thursday at 11AM and Sunday at 4AM where rain will not accumulate.

The GFS model over at Spotx is a little more kind, but still predicts 100mm between now and Sunday, plus some gusty winds on Thursday and Saturday evenings.

Rainfall amounts rise steadily with bigger pulses Thursday evening and Saturday
Rainfall amounts rise steadily with bigger pulses Thursday evening and Saturday
Gusts around 70kph predicted Thursday and Saturday
Gusts around 70kph predicted Thursday and Saturday

I’ll have another update Friday… but ya, hope you haven’t put away the sou’wester!

However… UWash has backed off a bit on its total rainfall.  Still predicting 30mm between 4PM Thurs/Friday but “only” another 30 Fri/Sat.   We’ll see what we get.

 


 

The rain continues.

It will rain most of the day on Wednesday and finally let up around 6PM tonight.

We should get through most of Thursday dry but by sundown it will begin to rain again, and rain quite hard most of Thursday night.

Totals between 4PM Thursday and Friday:

4PM Thursday to 4PM  Friday totals to 32 mm
4PM Thursday to 4PM Friday totals to 32 mm

32 mm is expected.  I will update this if the estimates change drastically.

We should get a few breaks on Friday but come Saturday and Sunday we can expect even more rain to fall right through the weekend.

Saturday a Concern:

Up to 30-60mm is likely between 4PM Froday and Saturday.  Mostly falling Saturday.
Up to 30-60mm is likely between 4PM Froday and Saturday. Mostly falling Saturday.

The hills and rivers haven’t had a ton of time to dry out from the historic storms of last week, so there should be some concern with the strength of the storm coming on Saturday.  It will linger through Sunday but not with large accumulations.

Again I will update this post if the forecast changes substantially.  And I will have another post on Friday to nail things down.

Thankfully, we should dry right out on Monday and then have a short and less intense rain on Tuesday before Christmas.  It is not looking good for snow on Christmas.  I’d recommend heading up the mountains if you are in need of white. 🙂