Final final Update – 10AM Sunday – Mele Kalikimaka is the thing to say when it snows the day after Christmas Day.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Sunday 18 February 2018 - Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Low minus 9. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High plus 1. Monday night: Partly cloudy. 40 percent chance of flurries overnight. Low minus 5. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High plus 3. Tuesday night: Clear. Low minus 6. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High plus 3. Wednesday night: Clearing. Low minus 6. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High plus 5. Thursday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 2. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High plus 5. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low zero. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries or rain showers. High 6.

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    N 49° 14' 46.1" :: W 124° 47' 60" at 30 m Google View

Final final update – 10AM Sunday. Official snow measurement. Drying out Sunday/Monday.

Here’s the official Alberniweather ruler measurement! 🙂 8cm. Precipitation should end later this morning and it should be a good day for sliding! Weee! Monday will be dry.

image image

Final Update 6 – 12AM – Latest model run still expects significant snowfall but plenty of uncertainty.

 

Here is the latest model run from the UWash.  It says up to 5in (10-15cm) will fall on Port Alberni between 1-4AM Sunday.

image

Environment Canada says 10cm. However, the high resolution Canadian LAM and US HRR say this will all fall as rain. The NAM says 10cm snow. The GFS says 5cm.

So, we’re all over the map on this one.  Pick the one you wish to happen, close your eyes, and wake up in the morning and we will see what one is right.

Happy Sunday.

 

Update 5 – 5:00PM 10cm expected overnight – Special Weather Statement

The new forecast is out from EC and they are calling for 10cm of snow for Port Alberni especially at higher elevations.

After this short break the snow should begin again there is plenty of moisture on the radar.

image

The main force of rain or snow should start around 1AM tonight but it will snow this evening too.  Here’s hoping we wake up to a bunch of snow in the morning!

 

Update 4 – 1:30PM – A look around the Island and Looking to this evening.

The snow situation is very different depending where you are on the Island. A cruise around the DriveBC Webcams gives us a good indication of how different it is.  Going from North to South, here is Campbell River:

543

South of Courtenay at Cook Creek:

120

The Highway 4 and 4A intersection:

649-2

The Hump:

102-3

And here in Port Alberni.

 

As long as the temperature stays below 1ºC I would and if the heavier precipitation comes as expected this evening, then I would expect a lot more white in those pictures in a few hours.  So far though, it seems like Campbell River and Port Alberni are winning the snow sweepstakes.

If you are out of town and planning on returning to Port Alberni today, I would recommend the earlier the better.

 

 

Update 3 – 11:30AM – Snowy Forecast Update – Brief Heavy Snow possible on East Island.

Environment Canada has just updated their forecast.  Not quite snowfall warning material, but it’s close:

They are calling for 2-4cm today, 5-10cm tonight and another 2cm tomorrow morning.

They have issued a warning for the East Vancouver island area I believe mainly due to the possibility of heavy snow which would reduce risibility significantly.  Accumulation is only 5cm.

9:42 AM PST Saturday 26 December 2015
Snowfall warning in effect for:

  • East Vancouver Island

Snowfall, with total amounts of about 5 cm is expected.

A Pacific frontal system is bringing snow to the northern sections of East Vancouver Island. Total snowfall amount of 5 cm is expected. Snow will transition to rain later today as temperatures rise above freezing. Poor driving conditions can be expected on the Inland Island Highway.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow.

Update 2 – 10:30AM – Use Extreme Caution driving in Nanaimo. Freezing Rain Reported.

From Twitter:

Original Post Below.

I will update this post if EC issues warnings or other notable events happen.  Be very careful on the roads, especially on the East Coast check the Webcam link on the side to see the latest Highway 4 and 19 webcam views.

Well, this was kind of unexpected.

IMG_7090

EC has just posted a Snowfall Warning posted for the East Coast of Vancouver Island.  They have not yet filled in the details so they must still be assessing the situation.

Here in Port Alberni, the current forecast is for 5-10cm of snow tonight with only flurries today.  However, with the snow falling quite convincingly at this moment.  That may be upgraded.  We’ll see.

Why the Hawaiian reference? Well, there’s this:

Screen Shot 2015-12-26 at 9.52.26 AM

Which shows the long tail of the Pineapple Express affecting us this morning… it has already dumped a fair amount of snow on Courtenay according to Gord Korbis who mentioned the counter-intuitive Hawaiian origins. 🙂

Here is a tweet from someone at Sproat Lake.

The Morning Model Run is out, and it has failed.

Here is what was expected for snow, according to the latest UWash model this morning.

wa_snow3.06.0000

Nothing by 10AM.  Wrong.

In fact it wasn’t expected any precipitation at all, which is why I slept in. 🙂

wa_pcp3.06.0000

However, what it does say is that the precipitation, whatever it is, should continue through the afternoon.

wa_pcp3.12.0000

There is also a possibility of windy weather today and through tomorrow.  There is already a wind warning for the North Coast of the Island.

Whether this falls as rain or snow will depend completely on local conditions.  The light flakes falling at 9:30AM are now looking like smaller wetter flakes at 10AM and now big flakes at 10:10AM

The most intense precipitation, is going to be early Sunday morning. And that is when the UWash has expected the most snow to fall at higher elevations expect possibly sea level in the Courtenay area.

wa_snow3.24.0000

Given how close it will be to 0ºC though, this could fall as snow in our area and that seems to be the thought process currently at Environment Canada with their forecast of 5-10cm of snow.

It should snow or rain pretty hard all morning Sunday.

Times to expect snow/rain and other models.

Here are some other models thoughts on the matter they also give a good indication on when we can expect something to fall from the sky. 🙂

Latest nights Canadian High Resolution Local model has us with temperatures just below 1ºC and a mix of rain and snow.  This could easily fall as all rain or all snow.

Screen Shot 2015-12-26 at 10.07.46 AM

The low-resolution (less accurate) Canadian GEM model goes all snow.

Screen Shot 2015-12-26 at 10.09.13 AM

The super high-resolution rapid response and very local US HRRR model has totally failed this morning both for temperature and thus type of precip and precipitation amount.

Screen Shot 2015-12-26 at 10.11.00 AM

This morning’s US NAM model run seems to have captured the situation the best so maybe look to it for a good idea on what will come later.

Screen Shot 2015-12-26 at 10.13.01 AM

The US GFS also seems to have got it, it’s a little colder, so more falls as snow.

Screen Shot 2015-12-26 at 10.14.45 AM

The East Coast is likely going to get a lot more of this snow than us, and particularly in the Courtenay area.  If you are out shopping this morning or tomorrow for Boxing Day, please take care and check the webcam page for the latest images from DriveBC.