Fri. Dec 14th, 2018

May be final day of smoke-reduced temperatures. Smoke impacting Air Quality too.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - WIND WARNING IN EFFECT
    Issued: 3:52 PM PST Friday 14 December 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Friday 14 December 2018 - Friday night: Rain ending this evening then cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Wind east 30 km/h becoming southwest 50 gusting to 90 early this evening then light late this evening. Low plus 3. Saturday: Cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the morning. Rain beginning near noon. High 6. Saturday night: Rain. Temperature steady near plus 5. Sunday: Rain. High 6. Sunday night: Rain. Low 6. Monday: Rain. High 7. Monday night: Rain. Low 6. Tuesday: Rain. High 7. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 7. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 7.

  • Current Conditions
    6.0° C
    -0.4 ° C/hr
    100.52 kPa
    S 15.4 km/h
    gusting 24.1 km/h
    75 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    2.8° C
    Heat Index
    6.0° C
    1.9° C
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 21:35:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    43.9 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (48% full)
    Civil Set
    Day Length
    Day High
    10.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    6.0° C @ 21:30 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    9.1mm/hr @ 08:02 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    100.52 kPa @ 21:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    99.05 kPa @ 14:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    0.3° C @ 17:37 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 39.7km/h @ 17:30 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    32W/m2 @ 14:11 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

We are forecast to reach 35 with a Humidex of 38, but that doesn’t take into account the smoky haze of the past few days.  On Friday I asked around to see where the haze was coming from and got some interesting answers.  Today we have awoken to haze again, so we might not see the 35°C high that is forecast.  However, if we look at the last few days of satellite pictures. It does look like the smoke is dispersing and moving to the south, check it out:

You can see the smoke gathered in the Interior on Thursday the 26th and then get expelled onto the coast and work its way down over the past few days.

This mornings picture directly above shows just the lower portions of Vancouver Island with smoke, so if it continues to move along today, we might get closer to our forecasted high temperatures than we did Friday and especially yesterday when we only barely got over 30°C.

The smoke is also “visible” in the air quality monitoring data at Alberni Elementary.  It is not up enough to cause great concern, but it certainly seems to be there.  These are 24hr average values so it may have been higher or lower during the circled period.

And where is the smoke coming from? Well, most I think is from fires in the interior, but there are other sources further afield.  Remember those big fires last week in Greece, well, it just so happens there was a bit of a path, through Siberia, for that smoke to make it all the way here!

I expect us to get above 30°C today as the smoke clears and tomorrow we should feel the full brunt of our extended heat wave again.  Tuesday will be hot as well but will hopefully also mark the start of a cooling trend back to normal temperature and cloudier skies, though no rain is in the forecast yet for the next 7 days.

One last thing… all these fires… we knew this was going to happen.  Here is a tweet from a former vice-Chair of the IPCC this morning:

Have a great Sunday and see you at PrideFest!