July 2016 Summary – Kinda Ho-Hum but Fall and Winter might not be.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 23 April 2018 - Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low plus 4. Tuesday: Mainly cloudy. High 20. UV index 4 or moderate. Tuesday night: Clearing in the evening. Low plus 5. Wednesday: Sunny. High 24. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 6. Thursday: Sunny. High 26. Thursday night: Clear. Low 7. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 8. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 16. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 7. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 15.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    6.6° C
    -0.8 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.51 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    78 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    6.6° C
    Heat Index
    6.6° C
    Dewpoint
    3.0° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 1:35:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:34
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (66% full)
    Civil Set
    21:01
    Day Length
    13:17:17
    Day High
    8.2° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    6.6° C @ 01:30 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.51 kPa @ 00:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.49 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    6.6° C @ 01:30 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    8.2° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

A very average July.

Again compared to last year’s extreme heat and fire dangers, particularly in the early part of the month, this past July seemed quite dreary and cool in comparison.  But the numbers tell a less pessimistic story.

The temperatures were very close to average for the month and the amount of precipitation was actually only about half of our normal.

The normal-ness was emphasized by the fact we only set one short-term record at the Airport.  It was for a new low on July 10th of 7.0ºC.  That was nowhere near the all time low for the day of 3.3ºC set in 1921.

So in all, it really was just a pleasant month of July even if it wasn’t perfect.

Fire and drought conditions are pretty good across the province for this time of year though we do have what looks like some drier and warmer weather setting up for the next two weeks.

Both the Autumn and Winter outlooks are below as well.  Might be a little stormy?  Make sure you check it all out.

Hope you are enjoy your August!  Regular updates will begin again next week!


Drought Conditions lessen.

This is just a snapshot in time but streamflows have generally improved across the Island compared to last month thanks to our recent rain.  The exception is in the Tofino/Clayoquot area.

Screen Shot 2016-08-10 at 3.53.40 PM

Last Month

Screen Shot 2016-07-08 at 1.24.50 PMScreen Shot 2016-07-08 at 1.24.59 PM

The East and South Island are now in Level 3 Drought condition while the West is in Level 2 which is good news.

Screen Shot 2016-08-10 at 3.56.21 PM

Last Month:

Screen Shot 2016-07-08 at 1.32.09 PM

Things have generally improved across the Province as you can see in the chart below.

Screen Shot 2016-08-10 at 3.57.39 PM

 


Wildfire Situation

Here is the current BC map as of August 10.  While we are higher than we were this time last month, we are still only in the moderate range after having a little time in the high and nearing extreme.  Expect it to go back to high after the next few days.  Generally the province looks pretty good for almost mid-August though the Central and northern Interior but could go bad if it heats up.

dr-8

dr-7

The current  National Map as of August 10.  The drought in Southern Ontario is reminiscent of our drought last year.  Alberta has got soaked but the NWT is still vulnerable.

fdr20160810

fdr20160708


16 day Outlook — Gradually warming and dry.

Here are the 16-day GEPS consensus graphs from SpotX.  It is looking dry and warm and pleasant with a good amount of clear skies but watch out at the end of the month! Some serious uncertainty there. 🙂

Screen Shot 2016-08-10 at 3.44.29 PM Screen Shot 2016-08-10 at 3.44.37 PM Screen Shot 2016-08-10 at 3.44.46 PM Screen Shot 2016-08-10 at 3.44.56 PM Screen Shot 2016-08-10 at 3.45.08 PM


El Niño Discussion from June 9: (new forecast expected next week)

Here is the latest El Niño status bulletin from the NOAA released July 14.

La Niña is favored to develop during August – October 2016, with about a 55-60% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17.

ENSO-neutral conditions were observed during the past month, as indicated by near-to-below average surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean also indicated ENSO-neutral conditions. The traditional Southern Oscillation index was slightly positive while the equatorial Southern Oscillation index was near zero. The upper and lower-level winds were both near average across most of the tropical Pacific. Convection was slightly suppressed over portions of the western tropical Pacific and enhanced over part of Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect ENSO-neutral conditions.

Overall, ENSO-neutral conditions currently prevail and La Niña is favored to develop by August – October 2016, with about a 55-60% chance of La Niña during the fall and winter 2016-17 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Three-Month Forecasts 

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 3-month Temperature, Precipitation and Sea Surface Temperature.

The Temperature anomaly for the next 3 months. The model just updated today for August.  So we are looking at the official meteorological fall period of September, October, November below.  We can see generally warmer than normal conditions.

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1-7

Here is the Precipitation Forecast for the next Fall.  Similar to the temperature predictions, the models are staying pretty consistent with the precipitation predictions as well as we move into the late summer/early fall months with near normal precipitation across all of Canada.

You can see below that the forecast is for slightly rainier than normal as possible to August/September/October that showed normal.

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season1-8

This either means a change in the models or that November may be particularly wet.

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season1-7

Global seasonal forecasts

Global Temp and Precip Spring, Summer, Fall and/or Winter forecast from current and last month runs. Only 1 of 2 seasons are within the forecasts in any given month.

This months forecasts: Fall 2016 and Winter 2016

Fall 2016:

As it was last year, the new run for the Northern Hemisphere Autumn period is interesting in how it has changed.  Two main features stand out.  The cool waters of La Niña are a little more pronounced but mostly the same. The northern Hemisphere in general looks to have shifted to the warm side with much warmer conditions in the NE Pacific and Gulf of Alaska and Pacific North West in particular which would potentially impact our weather.

On the precipitation front globally, there is not a large change from the previous month’s predictions.  The biggest change does seem to be in the Pacific Northwest with more precipitation than normal now predicted.

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_season1-2

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_season2-5
Fall (September, October, November) Temperature and Precip (below) current month forecast

NMME_ensemble_prate_season1-2

NMME_ensemble_prate_season2-4

Winter 2016

Winter 2016 looks warmer than normal again particularly in the high Arctic north of Europe.  Notably though the model has backed off a bit on the warmth in Eastern North America and much of Central Asia.  While the Southern Hemisphere is generally under normal temperature for their Summer except the waters between Australia and New Zealand.

Precipitation has not changed much but it does look suspiciously like a zone of wetter than normal very near the traditional “Pineapple Express” track.  This could signal stormy wet conditions for us.

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_season4-3

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_season5-3

NMME_ensemble_prate_season3-2

NMME_ensemble_prate_season5-4

Sea Surface Temperature next 3 months

Predictions for Sea Surface anomalies have not changed much.

NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season1-8

Last months’ forecasts.

NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season1-7

That’s it!


Monthly Timelapse Video

Monthly video unavailable see all days here:
https://www.youtube.com/user/alberniweather/videos


Daily records set this month at the Airport (and compared to other stations* for “All Time” since 1900)

One new Airport low.

*Short Term (since 1995) Airport Records are compared to the 30+ year weather stations of record since 1900 (1895 for rain) at Beaver Creek, Port Alberni “City” and Robertson Creek.  Note that records pre 1950 may be more likely to over-estimate high temperatures.


April 2016  Minimum, Mean, and High Average Temp and Total Precipitation

See last month’s and last July’s summary.

Alberniweather13.9º C, 18.6° C, 24.5º C10.9 mm
Alberni Elem. School : 13.6º C, 18.5º C, 24.0° C, 33.0 mm
Maquinna Elem. School13.3º C, 18.1º C, 24.1° C, 19.0 mm
Neptune Canada Station13.8º C, 18.3º C, 24.2° C, NA
Nick’s Station (Maquinna area): 13.2º C, 18.2º C, 22.6° C, 15.4 mm
Overall City Average: 13.6º C, 18.3º C, 23.8º C19.5 mm
Environment Canada Airport* : 11.4º C, 17.8° C, 25.2º C16.6 mm

1981-2010 (Rbrstn Creek)10.9º C, 18.3º C, 25.6° C31.0 mm

* Airport Missing two days in report – overall average calculated from CSV file. High/Low taken from incomplete summary report.


Differences from Normal

City Temperatures:
+2.7° C, +0.0º C, -1.8º C
Official Temperatures:
 +0.5º C, -0.4º C, -0.4º C
City Precipitation:
 -11.5 mm (62.9% of normal)
Official Precipitation
 -14.4 mm (53.5% of normal)


Days of Precipitation for July 2016*

Amount : Normal Days : Days This Month
>= 0.2 mm: 8.1 :  8*
>= 5 mm:  2 : 1
>= 10 mm: 0.8 : 0
>= 25 mm: 0.12 : 0

* 6th and 8th day missing from Airport Record.  Other stations recorded 0 for 6th and <5mm for 8th.


Comparison to recent months of June at Alberniweather

  • 2015: Hotter and similar rain. See July 2015 Summary Here .
  • 2014: Similar temps and rain. See the July 2014 Summary Here.
  • 2013: Higher temps 2013 and similar rain.
  • 2012: Similar temps but more rainy.
  • 2011: Bummer Summer 2011, ridiculously large amount of rain.
  • 2010: Higher highs but lower lows in 2010. Less rain.
  • 2009: Higher highs and average in 2009. More rain.
  • 2008: Higher highs, lower lows in 2008. Less rain.
  • 2007: Cooler 2016 but more rain. (almost zero in 2007)
  • 2006: Cooler 2016 but less rain.

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