Wed. Jun 26th, 2019

Hot Hot Heat Coming Saturday/Sunday!?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Wednesday 26 June 2019 - Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers this afternoon with risk of a thunderstorm. High 24. UV index 7 or high. Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Rain beginning before morning. Risk of a thunderstorm early this evening. Low 11. Thursday: Rain. High 14. UV index 2 or low. Thursday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Friday: Cloudy. High 20. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Saturday: Sunny. High 23. Saturday night: Clear. Low 10. Sunday: Sunny. High 24. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low 13. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    23.7° C
    0.8 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.92 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NE 9.7 km/h
    gusting 20.9 km/h
    Humidity
    42 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    23.7° C
    Heat Index
    23.7° C
    Dewpoint
    10.0° C
    UV
    4.6
    Solar
    880 W/m2
    Last Updated: 15:45:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:30
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (35% full)
    Civil Set
    22:13
    Day Length
    13:22:06
    Day High
    23.8° C @ 15:38 Tdy.
    Day Low
    10.0° C @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.29 kPa @ 06:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.92 kPa @ 15:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    10.0° C @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    23.8° C @ 15:38 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 14.8km/h @ 15:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1195W/m2 @ 12:28 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    6.5 @ 12:28 Tdy.

So I woke up this morning, looked at the forecast and saw this:

Screen Shot 2016-06-01 at 7.45.29 AM

So that gave me some cause for pause…. 🙂

The updated 11AM forecast from Environment Canada has not changed, so I am left to wonder what other sources saying since it was supposed to be hot, like high twenties, but not quite *that* hot.

So I have waited for the latest UWash to come out this morning which includes the first short term look at Saturday along with an update for Sunday.

Below is UWash’s short term high-res Saturday afternoon temp.

wa_tsfc.84.0000-2

Calling for a high between 29-31ºC (84-88ºF).  Not quite as high as EC but close.

Here is Sunday’s prediction, which is still long range so low res.

wa_tsfc.108.0000

It actually looks cooler, only between 26 and 29º C (80-84º F), however this might be a result of the low resolution.  Here is the same low resolution forecast for Saturday.

wa_tsfc.84.0000-3Notice it doesn’t even the 29º C heat reaching the valley.  So clearly the lower resolution products from UWash are underestimating the power (of-the-dark…) of the Valley to amplify the heat.  Considering that the low resolution shows a much broader swath of more intense heat on the Island on Sunday than Saturday, I would say that supports the notion that it will be hotter on Sunday and Saturday, and so I expect when Sundays’ high resolution forecast is released tomorrow by UWash, it will be hotter than the 31ºC max for Saturday.

All to say, yep if the forecast holds, it’s gonna very hot!

In fact, Environment Canada is so confident of the heat that they have sent around the all time records for BC for the dates of June 4, June 5, and June 6.  For Port Alberni the records (since 1900) to beat are:

June 4: 34.0º C from 1989  (seems unlikely)
June 5: 33.5º C from 2003 (possible)
June 6: 35.0º C from 2005 (not likely)

I will be in Winnipeg from Thursday until Monday, however, I am working hard to have the May 2016 summary ready to go before I leave.  I might wait to post it until Friday for some weekend reading but I’ll also keep an eye on things here to see just how hot we should get.  The weather in Winnipeg is supposed to be a pleasant 23º C with sun and clouds.