June 6, 2020

Hot Hot Heat Coming Saturday/Sunday!?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Saturday 06 June 2020 - Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers and risk of a thunderstorm. High 15. UV index 4 or moderate. Saturday night: Partly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers this evening. Fog patches developing after midnight. Low 6. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. 40 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Risk of a thunderstorm late in the afternoon. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 20. UV index 7 or high. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 15. Monday night: Rain. Low 8. Tuesday: Rain. High 18. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 11. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 17. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 18. Thursday night: Cloudy. Low 11. Friday: Cloudy. High 18.

So I woke up this morning, looked at the forecast and saw this:

Screen Shot 2016-06-01 at 7.45.29 AM

So that gave me some cause for pause…. 🙂

The updated 11AM forecast from Environment Canada has not changed, so I am left to wonder what other sources saying since it was supposed to be hot, like high twenties, but not quite *that* hot.

So I have waited for the latest UWash to come out this morning which includes the first short term look at Saturday along with an update for Sunday.

Below is UWash’s short term high-res Saturday afternoon temp.

wa_tsfc.84.0000-2

Calling for a high between 29-31ºC (84-88ºF).  Not quite as high as EC but close.

Here is Sunday’s prediction, which is still long range so low res.

wa_tsfc.108.0000

It actually looks cooler, only between 26 and 29º C (80-84º F), however this might be a result of the low resolution.  Here is the same low resolution forecast for Saturday.

wa_tsfc.84.0000-3Notice it doesn’t even the 29º C heat reaching the valley.  So clearly the lower resolution products from UWash are underestimating the power (of-the-dark…) of the Valley to amplify the heat.  Considering that the low resolution shows a much broader swath of more intense heat on the Island on Sunday than Saturday, I would say that supports the notion that it will be hotter on Sunday and Saturday, and so I expect when Sundays’ high resolution forecast is released tomorrow by UWash, it will be hotter than the 31ºC max for Saturday.

All to say, yep if the forecast holds, it’s gonna very hot!

In fact, Environment Canada is so confident of the heat that they have sent around the all time records for BC for the dates of June 4, June 5, and June 6.  For Port Alberni the records (since 1900) to beat are:

June 4: 34.0º C from 1989  (seems unlikely)
June 5: 33.5º C from 2003 (possible)
June 6: 35.0º C from 2005 (not likely)

I will be in Winnipeg from Thursday until Monday, however, I am working hard to have the May 2016 summary ready to go before I leave.  I might wait to post it until Friday for some weekend reading but I’ll also keep an eye on things here to see just how hot we should get.  The weather in Winnipeg is supposed to be a pleasant 23º C with sun and clouds.