Sat. Dec 15th, 2018

Hot Hot Heat Coming Saturday/Sunday!?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PST Saturday 15 December 2018 - Saturday: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. High 6. Saturday night: Rain. Amount 10 to 20 mm. Low plus 4. Sunday: Rain. Amount 20 mm. High 6. Sunday night: Rain. Low 6. Monday: Rain. High 7. Monday night: Rain. Low 6. Tuesday: Rain. High 7. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 7. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 7. Thursday night: Cloudy. Low plus 2. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 6.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    5.2° C
    0.6 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.04 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    5.2° C
    Heat Index
    5.2° C
    Dewpoint
    4.9° C
    UV
    0.2
    Solar
    62 W/m2
    Last Updated: 13:35:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.5 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:29
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (54% full)
    Civil Set
    16:59
    Day Length
    12:14:29
    Day High
    5.2° C @ 13:32 Tdy.
    Day Low
    2.5° C @ 07:33 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.42 kPa @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.04 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.1° C @ 01:31 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    5.2° C @ 13:32 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 7.5km/h @ 02:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    84W/m2 @ 12:29 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.5 @ 09:47 Tdy.

So I woke up this morning, looked at the forecast and saw this:

Screen Shot 2016-06-01 at 7.45.29 AM

So that gave me some cause for pause…. 🙂

The updated 11AM forecast from Environment Canada has not changed, so I am left to wonder what other sources saying since it was supposed to be hot, like high twenties, but not quite *that* hot.

So I have waited for the latest UWash to come out this morning which includes the first short term look at Saturday along with an update for Sunday.

Below is UWash’s short term high-res Saturday afternoon temp.

wa_tsfc.84.0000-2

Calling for a high between 29-31ºC (84-88ºF).  Not quite as high as EC but close.

Here is Sunday’s prediction, which is still long range so low res.

wa_tsfc.108.0000

It actually looks cooler, only between 26 and 29º C (80-84º F), however this might be a result of the low resolution.  Here is the same low resolution forecast for Saturday.

wa_tsfc.84.0000-3Notice it doesn’t even the 29º C heat reaching the valley.  So clearly the lower resolution products from UWash are underestimating the power (of-the-dark…) of the Valley to amplify the heat.  Considering that the low resolution shows a much broader swath of more intense heat on the Island on Sunday than Saturday, I would say that supports the notion that it will be hotter on Sunday and Saturday, and so I expect when Sundays’ high resolution forecast is released tomorrow by UWash, it will be hotter than the 31ºC max for Saturday.

All to say, yep if the forecast holds, it’s gonna very hot!

In fact, Environment Canada is so confident of the heat that they have sent around the all time records for BC for the dates of June 4, June 5, and June 6.  For Port Alberni the records (since 1900) to beat are:

June 4: 34.0º C from 1989  (seems unlikely)
June 5: 33.5º C from 2003 (possible)
June 6: 35.0º C from 2005 (not likely)

I will be in Winnipeg from Thursday until Monday, however, I am working hard to have the May 2016 summary ready to go before I leave.  I might wait to post it until Friday for some weekend reading but I’ll also keep an eye on things here to see just how hot we should get.  The weather in Winnipeg is supposed to be a pleasant 23º C with sun and clouds.