Sun. Nov 18th, 2018

UPDATED 1:20PM – Alberniweather power outage

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Saturday 17 November 2018 - Saturday night: Clear. Fog patches developing overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 4 overnight. Sunday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 10. UV index 1 or low. Sunday night: Clear. Fog patches overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 1. Wind chill minus 3 overnight. Monday: Sunny. High 8. Monday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 7. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 6. Thursday: Rain. High 10. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    5.4° C
    -1.7 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.61 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    ESE 3.7 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    Humidity
    89 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    5.4° C
    Heat Index
    5.4° C
    Dewpoint
    3.7° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 17:40:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:56
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (73% full)
    Civil Set
    17:11
    Day Length
    12:04:14
    Day High
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.9° C @ 04:38 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.87 kPa @ 08:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.61 kPa @ 17:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.5° C @ 02:24 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.0km/h @ 17:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    482W/m2 @ 12:21 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.3 @ 11:59 Tdy.

Update 1:20PM – Power Outage at Alberniweather

The power just went off at 1:20PM here at Alberniweather (6th and Redford).  This is unusual as we are on a main trunk line that goes out to Bamfield and used to serve the RCMP.  We are often the only ones *with* power in these storms.  So something major must have blown.

The live updating of weather data will be down on the website until power returns but obviously I can post as long as the devices have power and cell service is available.

I took this just before the power went out.  Was admiring the clouds flying past the window.

Updated 12:40PM

It has been a busy morning.  The Malahat is closed due to an accident until 1PM.

Highway 19a (old highway) is closed to Courtenay due to down power lines. And Metro Vancouver is getting a major windstorm.

It hasn’t hit us yet but it still may by 2PM as the barometer continues to fall so be prepared, get some candles and if you can avoid travelling at would probably be good.

As for the new forecast now that the morning model is done from UWash but their website appears to be down.  I will wait a while and update later either with that model or others.

15mm has fallen so far. Have fun out there. It is a great day for puddle jumping!

image

UPDATED 8:30AM – Could we see Wind Gusts to 80kph?

The first thing I noticed when I popped on the iPad this morning was the Barometer on the webpage lit up yellow as it dropped into the 99kPa range.  It continues to drop.  That means we have a strong system on our hands and a chance for wind.  But how good of a chance?

A Weather watcher in Vancouver posted:

That caught my eye… so I went and looked at the High Resolution Rapid Return for our area.

CNlaxUPUYAIS_mT

 

That says 80kph potential for our area.  As with most wind estimates, we require the wind to be funnelled up the Inlet just right to affect us.  But with all of the dead and brittle trees due to the drought there is, I think, an added possibility of trees falling.  I am worried about our own weeping birch that died this year (due to the drought last year and us doing some yard renos).  It could fall on our powerlines.  I might go tie it to something….

There is also the possibility of Thunder and Lightning.  With any intense system like this there is the possibility of a thunderclap or two but it should not be serious and thankfully with all of the rain it should not pose an immediate wildfire threat though lightning strikes are known to cause smolders that turn into fire once the warm weather returns.

Enjoy the rain (but stay out of the river beds) and keep vigilant for effects of wind.  I will have an update around noon unless something else catches my eye.

Updated 11:45PM – Special Statements Rescinded – Hours of Highest Rainfall

Environment Canada has rescinded the Special Weather Statements for Vancouver Island as of 9:45PM.  They still have a rainfall warning for Metro Vancouver.  They are calling for up to 50mm of rain through Saturday night.  The latest run of the UWash model just completed and it agrees with that estimate.  I thought I would throw up an update that has the hours of most rainfall expected so you know when you need to definitely take an umbrella.

Rainfall likely because between 2-3AM.

wa_pcp1.10.0000

Intensifies and first peak is 4-5AM

wa_pcp1.12.0000-3

The rain continues before dying off in the 9-10AM timeframe. wa_pcp1.17.0000

It returns 11-Noon, possibly as strong as early morning.

wa_pcp1.19.0000

 

We get another break around 2PM and then it is off and on after that.

I will be on the 10AM Steam train tomorrow…. with an umbrella. 🙂  I will try to post an update when I get back home around noon to see if anything has changed in the models for the next wave and to take stock of where we are at.

Enjoy the rain!

Original post….

The firehose is pointed at us.

201508290130_ir

Unlike a few other areas our Special Weather Statement did *not* get upgraded to a rainfall warning.  This is a good thing.  However, we are still slated to get a significant rainfall event as the satellite picture above makes pretty obvious.

If things change with the forecast, the warnings, or the models, this evening I will update.

You can see the Special Weather Statement here, below is the key:

 Across most areas total rainfall amounts through Saturday will be in the 20 to 40 mm range with additional amounts of 15 to 20 mm likely on Sunday.

This is a good downgrade from what was feared before. Lets see if the University of Washington Models agree with that.

Most of the rain before Saturday evening.

It just so happens that once it starts raining around midnight tonight, it isn’t supposed to stop completely until 5PM Sunday!  Which matches well with the graphics.  So, here is their 2-day (48hr) accumulation between 5PM Friday and 5PM Sunday.

wa_pcp48.60.0000-2

The Alberni Valley is within the pink range, so we can expect up to 60mm (2.56in) to fall between now and 5PM Sunday.  The actual estimate for that time is actually closer to 40mm.  But most of that, up to 30mm, will fall before 5PM Saturday.

The rain will return in the evening Sunday but only last until early morning Monday.  Total accumulation Sunday evening to Monday evening is around 20mm.

Windcast

The most likely time for strong winds appears to be Saturday evening after the low has come ashore down in Oregon.  You can see the strong southerly winds reaching up our way in green on this 2-5PM chart.

wgsfc.36.0000-2