Sun. Nov 18th, 2018

Here comes the Brrrrrrr to end 2014…. To Snow, or not To Snow? That is the question.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Saturday 17 November 2018 - Saturday night: Clear. Fog patches developing overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 4 overnight. Sunday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 10. UV index 1 or low. Sunday night: Clear. Fog patches overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 1. Wind chill minus 3 overnight. Monday: Sunny. High 8. Monday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 7. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 6. Thursday: Rain. High 10. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    6.1° C
    -1.9 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.61 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NNE 0.1 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    Humidity
    84 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    6.1° C
    Heat Index
    6.1° C
    Dewpoint
    3.6° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 17:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:56
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (73% full)
    Civil Set
    17:11
    Day Length
    12:04:14
    Day High
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.9° C @ 04:38 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.87 kPa @ 08:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.61 kPa @ 15:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.5° C @ 02:24 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.0km/h @ 17:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    482W/m2 @ 12:21 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.3 @ 11:59 Tdy.

In addition to the possibility of a few flurries tonight, especially at higher elevations (think: The Hump, Sutton Pass) Environment Canada has issued a Special Weather Statement about a cold snap likely to come our way soon:

9:47 PM PST Friday 26 December 2014
Special weather statement in effect for:

  • Inland Vancouver Island

Cold Arctic air arriving Sunday.

A strong ridge of high pressure from Yukon will advance southward towards the British Columbia coast on Sunday morning.

The ridge will spread cold Arctic air along coastal regions bringing temperatures down to 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normal values by Monday. The ridge will also create strong pressure gradients along the coast and generate intense northeasterly Arctic outflow winds through mainland valleys and inlets beginning Sunday morning. The freezing temperatures are forecast to persist for several days.

The most interesting part of that statement is the “intense northeasterly Arctic outflow winds through mainland valleys”.

This could very well set up some sort of “Strait” effect snow for the east side of the Island, but it is too soon to say for sure yet.

UWash Model for Tuesday morning showing temperatures below -4ºC (24ºF)
UWash Model for Tuesday morning showing temperatures below -4ºC (24ºF)

The UWash models are predicting temperatures just below freezing Sunday night and Monday and getting near or below -4ºC Tuesday morning (above) but that looks to be the coldest morning.

Cold weather doesn’t automatically mean snow.  UWash has no snow predicted for the entire week.

However, the Canadian “GEM” model does have a little tonight and more later in the week (it also predicts the cold to be a little deeper and last longer)

Canadian GEM model shows some snow....
Canadian GEM model shows some snow particularly later in the week

We’ll see what happens.

At least with the strong outflow winds we might have a shot at the fog drying up so we can enjoy the inevitable clear skies.   But without those winds, we could see heavy fog, be careful, especially with icey roads likely as well.

It will also mean stagnant air though, so if you have a wood-fired heating system, you will want to try to limit your emissions and try to hold off any backyard type burning until the weather changes back.

Happy Weekend!

P.S.

Webcam Updates:

My webcam system has been giving me a headache over the Christmas break, but I think it might be nearing good spot.  I’m hoping to have it up and running normally again by the end of the night tonight or by Sunday at the latest.