We are just on the edge of the rain this morning as South Vancouver Island gets it a little more than us. Here is the radar proving out last nights UWash forecast below almost exactly.
That should give pretty high confidence that what the model forecasts for the afternoon is very likely to be true, which means a lot of rain.
The wind will swing around to the south around noon and push rain on to the Island.
It will intensify through the 1-4PM period and then start to back off from 4-7PM.
The maximum accumulation forecast between 11AM and 7PM is 40mm which would be significant if it materializes.
This will occur on a rising tide though thankfully the 8ft high tide is not until 6:30PM which should be after both the peak rain and wind. The wind should not be significant, just a little gusty at times.
The good news is, Tuesday looks pretty nice as we sit in a break between systems before the next one rolls in Wednesday.