Heating up through Thursday – Hot Oceans – Crazy Tornados

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PST Friday 23 February 2018 - Friday: Light snow ending early this afternoon then cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries or rain showers. High plus 3. Friday night: A few flurries and rain showers ending near midnight then clearing. Low minus 3. Saturday: Sunny. Increasing cloudiness early in the afternoon. High 7. Saturday night: Rain or snow. Low zero. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. High 7. Sunday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low minus 2. Monday: Cloudy. High 8. Monday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low plus 1. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 2. Wednesday: Rain. High 7. Wednesday night: Rain or snow. Low plus 1. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7.

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The forecast is heating up and drying out again.  By Thursday we should hit well above 30°C even though the map below isn’t quite there.imageThe UWash model has the heat peaking on Friday and then backing off a little on the long weekend but it will still be hot and dry through the whole long weekend if the forecast holds as is.

The fire danger rating remains at high and the forecast is holding steady at high for now.  If we see this dry spell through the weekend though, then I would expect to get back to extreme by next week with no change in the pattern.

A new source of information I have recieved indicates the fire tankers across the province are on a low level of alert status, including the Martin Mars.  This is a good thing.

Unprecedented Ocean Heating?

TomW posted this link in the comments of the last post, it included this image:

Screen Shot 2015-07-28 at 9.53.27 AM

The El Niño is clearly visible along the equator.  What is impressive this year is the abnormally warm water all along the Eastern Pacific and into the Central area.

Here is another look at it using the excellent Climate Reanalyzer tool showing yesterdays averages.

GFS-025deg_NH-SAT4_SST_anom

These pictures of the anomalies, or the temperatures out of normal of the oceans.  If you’re wondering what the temperature actually is of the water, here is the same image as above, but with the temperatures rather than anomalies to help put it in some perspective.

GFS-025deg_NH-SAT4_SST

 

If you are wondering how that compares to 1997…..

CFSR_WORLD-CED2_SST_1997-07-28

Notice the green bands of warmer, 20º C water extends much further and closer in to the continent.  This will have impacts on fisheries and other things as well as on our weather patterns, particularly the amount of energy and moisture available to storms as they impact our coast.

This extension of abnormally warm water also includes the 26º C water, which is the limit for feeding tropical storms…. you can see how far the 26ºC water reaches with the blue line in the image below.  The black line is the normal extent of 26º C.

 

This could pose problems for Hawaii as stronger hurricanes/cyclones could travel deeper into that zone of ocean.

In all, it is a very interesting pattern in our oceans right now.  It is hard to say how it will affect us, particularly in the fall and winter seasons.  Traditionally strong El Niño’s bring heavy rains to California and warm winters to our shores.  We’ll see how this works out this year.

Major Tornado hits Southern Manitoba

Tornadoes are not unusual on the prairies.

But these kinds of tornadoes are.

 

Wow.

Environment Canada will have an official report on the size and force of the tornado later today.  By those pictures, it is hard to imagine it being less than an EF3 or more.