Heating up through Thursday – Hot Oceans – Crazy Tornados

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Sunday 22 April 2018 - Sunday night: Clear. Fog patches developing overnight. Low plus 1. Monday: Mainly sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 18. UV index 5 or moderate. Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low plus 4. Tuesday: Cloudy. High 21. Tuesday night: Clear. Low plus 5. Wednesday: Sunny. High 24. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 6. Thursday: Sunny. High 26. Thursday night: Clear. Low 7. Friday: Sunny. High 19. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 15.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    14.7° C
    -0.5 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.72 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NNE 4.8 km/h
    gusting 14.5 km/h
    Humidity
    44 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    14.7° C
    Heat Index
    14.7° C
    Dewpoint
    2.5° C
    UV
    0.5
    Solar
    72 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:30:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:38
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (52% full)
    Civil Set
    20:58
    Day Length
    13:17:39
    Day High
    16.3° C @ 15:04 Tdy.
    Day Low
    2.0° C @ 04:45 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:05
    Day High Barometer
    103.17 kPa @ 08:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.72 kPa @ 18:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    2.0° C @ 04:45 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    16.3° C @ 15:04 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 12.4km/h @ 16:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    914W/m2 @ 13:31 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.7 @ 13:07 Tdy.

The forecast is heating up and drying out again.  By Thursday we should hit well above 30°C even though the map below isn’t quite there.imageThe UWash model has the heat peaking on Friday and then backing off a little on the long weekend but it will still be hot and dry through the whole long weekend if the forecast holds as is.

The fire danger rating remains at high and the forecast is holding steady at high for now.  If we see this dry spell through the weekend though, then I would expect to get back to extreme by next week with no change in the pattern.

A new source of information I have recieved indicates the fire tankers across the province are on a low level of alert status, including the Martin Mars.  This is a good thing.

Unprecedented Ocean Heating?

TomW posted this link in the comments of the last post, it included this image:

Screen Shot 2015-07-28 at 9.53.27 AM

The El Niño is clearly visible along the equator.  What is impressive this year is the abnormally warm water all along the Eastern Pacific and into the Central area.

Here is another look at it using the excellent Climate Reanalyzer tool showing yesterdays averages.

GFS-025deg_NH-SAT4_SST_anom

These pictures of the anomalies, or the temperatures out of normal of the oceans.  If you’re wondering what the temperature actually is of the water, here is the same image as above, but with the temperatures rather than anomalies to help put it in some perspective.

GFS-025deg_NH-SAT4_SST

 

If you are wondering how that compares to 1997…..

CFSR_WORLD-CED2_SST_1997-07-28

Notice the green bands of warmer, 20º C water extends much further and closer in to the continent.  This will have impacts on fisheries and other things as well as on our weather patterns, particularly the amount of energy and moisture available to storms as they impact our coast.

This extension of abnormally warm water also includes the 26º C water, which is the limit for feeding tropical storms…. you can see how far the 26ºC water reaches with the blue line in the image below.  The black line is the normal extent of 26º C.

 

This could pose problems for Hawaii as stronger hurricanes/cyclones could travel deeper into that zone of ocean.

In all, it is a very interesting pattern in our oceans right now.  It is hard to say how it will affect us, particularly in the fall and winter seasons.  Traditionally strong El Niño’s bring heavy rains to California and warm winters to our shores.  We’ll see how this works out this year.

Major Tornado hits Southern Manitoba

Tornadoes are not unusual on the prairies.

But these kinds of tornadoes are.

 

Wow.

Environment Canada will have an official report on the size and force of the tornado later today.  By those pictures, it is hard to imagine it being less than an EF3 or more.