Tue. Jul 16th, 2019

Heating up through Thursday – Hot Oceans – Crazy Tornados

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 15 July 2019 - Monday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers early this evening with risk of thunderstorms. Low 15. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers in the morning. High 25. Humidex 27. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning in the evening. Low 14. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    15.7° C
    0.0 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.65 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    91 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    15.7° C
    Heat Index
    15.7° C
    Dewpoint
    14.2° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 3:10:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    04:49
    Moon Phase
    Full (100% full)
    Civil Set
    22:00
    Day Length
    13:25:19
    Day High
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.7 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.65 kPa @ 02:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 01:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

The forecast is heating up and drying out again.  By Thursday we should hit well above 30°C even though the map below isn’t quite there.imageThe UWash model has the heat peaking on Friday and then backing off a little on the long weekend but it will still be hot and dry through the whole long weekend if the forecast holds as is.

The fire danger rating remains at high and the forecast is holding steady at high for now.  If we see this dry spell through the weekend though, then I would expect to get back to extreme by next week with no change in the pattern.

A new source of information I have recieved indicates the fire tankers across the province are on a low level of alert status, including the Martin Mars.  This is a good thing.

Unprecedented Ocean Heating?

TomW posted this link in the comments of the last post, it included this image:

Screen Shot 2015-07-28 at 9.53.27 AM

The El Niño is clearly visible along the equator.  What is impressive this year is the abnormally warm water all along the Eastern Pacific and into the Central area.

Here is another look at it using the excellent Climate Reanalyzer tool showing yesterdays averages.

GFS-025deg_NH-SAT4_SST_anom

These pictures of the anomalies, or the temperatures out of normal of the oceans.  If you’re wondering what the temperature actually is of the water, here is the same image as above, but with the temperatures rather than anomalies to help put it in some perspective.

GFS-025deg_NH-SAT4_SST

 

If you are wondering how that compares to 1997…..

CFSR_WORLD-CED2_SST_1997-07-28

Notice the green bands of warmer, 20º C water extends much further and closer in to the continent.  This will have impacts on fisheries and other things as well as on our weather patterns, particularly the amount of energy and moisture available to storms as they impact our coast.

This extension of abnormally warm water also includes the 26º C water, which is the limit for feeding tropical storms…. you can see how far the 26ºC water reaches with the blue line in the image below.  The black line is the normal extent of 26º C.

 

This could pose problems for Hawaii as stronger hurricanes/cyclones could travel deeper into that zone of ocean.

In all, it is a very interesting pattern in our oceans right now.  It is hard to say how it will affect us, particularly in the fall and winter seasons.  Traditionally strong El Niño’s bring heavy rains to California and warm winters to our shores.  We’ll see how this works out this year.

Major Tornado hits Southern Manitoba

Tornadoes are not unusual on the prairies.

But these kinds of tornadoes are.

 

Wow.

Environment Canada will have an official report on the size and force of the tornado later today.  By those pictures, it is hard to imagine it being less than an EF3 or more.