Thu. Jan 17th, 2019

Heat continues, and intensifies through week. Fire Danger increases.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Thursday 17 January 2019 - Thursday: Showers. Amount 5 to 10 mm. High plus 5. Thursday night: Rain. Amount 10 to 20 mm. Temperature steady near plus 5. Friday: Rain. Amount 5 to 10 mm. High 7. Friday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Saturday: Rain. High 6. Saturday night: Showers. Low plus 3. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7. Sunday night: Clear. Low plus 2. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud with 60 percent chance of showers. High 6. Monday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 3. Tuesday: Rain. High 6. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 3. Wednesday: Cloudy. High 7.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    4.4° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    99.7 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    99 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    4.4° C
    Heat Index
    4.4° C
    Dewpoint
    4.2° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    30 W/m2
    Last Updated: 9:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    2.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:30
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (84% full)
    Civil Set
    17:28
    Day Length
    12:29:20
    Day High
    4.7° C @ 06:41 Tdy.
    Day Low
    2.4° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    1.8mm/hr @ 03:25 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    99.92 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    99.69 kPa @ 08:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    0.1° C @ 05:47 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    4.7° C @ 06:41 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 8.9km/h @ 06:40 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    40W/m2 @ 09:05 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

While we haven’t broken any records and likely won’t in the next week, it is going to feel pretty consistently hot and might even hotter as a ridge of high pressure locks in and intensifies.  We may break records on Thursday and Friday.

You can see this process in the UWash jetstream forecast.

Here are the jet stream predictions for this morning, Wednesday afternoon and early Friday.

image

image

image

As you can see there is a bit of confusion in the jet this morning as it reorganizes itself around a high building off Southern California but by Wednesday afternoon it has settled into a strong loop through southern Alaska and by Friday it has shifted slightly to the east clearing the way for very hot air to flood northwards into our area.

The low resolution, long range temperature forecast demonstrates the effect this will have after Wednesday.  We will stay in the low 30s Monday and Tuesday, Wednesday but Thursday and Friday may be very hot indeed. Reaching to the 35°C/96°F range.

Monday. High 20s/low 30s

image

Tuesday. low 30s

image

Wednesday high 20s/low 30s

image

Thursday things get really hot.  Note the Fraser Valley has some pink areas indicating up to 35.5°C (96°F). The Alberni Valley is often a little hotter than the Lower Mainland.

image

It backs off a bit Friday but still hotter than the beginning of the week.

image

Comox Main Fire is knocked down but got large.

The Fire out Comox Main appears to be in good shape this morning though it almost double in size again yesterday.  It is now 5.8 hectares, or 3.5 Martin Mars large.

image

This is what it looked like at the end of the day on Sunday thanks to hard work by ground crews to get it contained and under control.  Pictures from Charles Hubbard on Facebook.13932760_10157102991075478_8116039796427572117_n 14045643_10157102990230478_5963313376058511423_n

No doubt they will be keeping a very close eye on the remnants of the fire as the heat builds and things dry out even more.

The fire danger is now officially High again and Extreme on the South Island.  If the forecast above validates then we should see Extreme conditions creep north and east into the Interior.

dr-9

The BC Wildfire forecast has the danger rating hitting Extreme in the Alberni Valley on Wednesday the 17th.

Screen Shot 2016-08-15 at 8.13.53 AM The Monday fire weather forecast should be out in a couple hours.