Tue. Dec 11th, 2018

Gradual cooling but pleasant most of the week. Then big change coming. 100mm next week?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Tuesday 11 December 2018 - Tuesday: Rain. Amount 15 to 25 mm. High 7. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers early this evening then partly cloudy. Fog patches developing after midnight. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the morning. Rain beginning in the morning. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. Amount 10 to 15 mm. High 6. Wednesday night: Periods of rain. Low 6. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 6. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 8. Friday night: Rain. Low 6. Saturday: Rain. High 8. Saturday night: Rain. Low 7. Sunday: Rain. High 9. Sunday night: Rain. Low 7. Monday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    3.2° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.16 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 1.6 km/h
    Humidity
    99 %
    Rain Rate
    2.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    3.2° C
    Heat Index
    3.2° C
    Dewpoint
    3.0° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    7 W/m2
    Last Updated: 9:30:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    34.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:25
    Moon Phase
    Waxing crescent (17% full)
    Civil Set
    16:59
    Day Length
    12:12:35
    Day High
    5.8° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    3.2° C @ 07:47 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    8.9mm/hr @ 07:16 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.45 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.16 kPa @ 09:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.5° C @ 08:47 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    5.8° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3.8km/h @ 06:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    7W/m2 @ 09:25 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Another pleasant weekend has passed.

The mornings are definitely getting cooler, we got down to 7°C at the Airport this morning, and the sun is getting up later and going to bed earlier too.  All signs of fall approaching… And fall may be approaching in the form of a big fall storm.  Keep reading.

Here is the look at the next three days of precipitation out to Thursday morning… nothing happening.  It will remain dry and warm.

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And then here are the 3 days after, from Thursday to Sunday morning…

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Quite the dramatic shift!

While UWash has us avoiding the strongest of the moisture (and look at the sry spot near Duncan!), other models do not. Below is the Canadian long range forecast showing up to 90mm falling by Tuesday next week. (And windy on Monday too).

image

Here is the US GFS predicting up to 60mm by Monday and stormy gusts up to 50kph on Saturday.

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And here is the multi-model consensus showing up to 70mm by the middle of next week and 100mm by Labour Day.

image

So the models all agree.  The weather is about to change, and in a pretty big way.

It is still too far out in the forecast to give specifics on timing and amount.  These forecasts will change and the systems producing this moisture are not very organized, they saeem to be kind of sliding past us down the coast rather than hitting us head on.

image image

 

But obviously the computers have a very wet few days coming our way starting around Friday and lasting through Wednesday next week. It goes without saying that this could break our drought… but if we simply get a massive deluge for a few days followed by another 2 months or more of dry and heat thanks to El Niño and the blob, then where will we be?

Stay tuned.