Tue. Sep 18th, 2018

Gradual cooling but pleasant most of the week. Then big change coming. 100mm next week?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Tuesday 18 September 2018 - Tuesday: Mainly sunny. High 19. UV index 5 or moderate. Tuesday night: Increasing cloudiness. 40 percent chance of showers overnight. Low 6. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 15. UV index 2 or low. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Thursday: Showers. High 16. Thursday night: Rain. Low 8. Friday: Rain. High 15. Friday night: Showers. Low 9. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 15. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Sunday: Cloudy. High 16. Sunday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 16.

  • Current Conditions
    12.3° C
    2.0 ° C/hr
    102.08 kPa
    SW 1.3 km/h
    gusting 6.4 km/h
    86 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    12.3° C
    Heat Index
    12.3° C
    10.0° C
    707 W/m2
    Last Updated: 12:00:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.2 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (67% full)
    Civil Set
    Day Length
    Day High
    12.3° C @ 11:59 Tdy.
    Day Low
    7.3° C @ 02:06 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    Day High Barometer
    102.15 kPa @ 08:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.04 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    6.9° C @ 06:11 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    12.3° C @ 11:59 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3.1km/h @ 06:15 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    824W/m2 @ 11:39 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    3.8 @ 11:40 Tdy.

Another pleasant weekend has passed.

The mornings are definitely getting cooler, we got down to 7°C at the Airport this morning, and the sun is getting up later and going to bed earlier too.  All signs of fall approaching… And fall may be approaching in the form of a big fall storm.  Keep reading.

Here is the look at the next three days of precipitation out to Thursday morning… nothing happening.  It will remain dry and warm.


And then here are the 3 days after, from Thursday to Sunday morning…


Quite the dramatic shift!

While UWash has us avoiding the strongest of the moisture (and look at the sry spot near Duncan!), other models do not. Below is the Canadian long range forecast showing up to 90mm falling by Tuesday next week. (And windy on Monday too).


Here is the US GFS predicting up to 60mm by Monday and stormy gusts up to 50kph on Saturday.


And here is the multi-model consensus showing up to 70mm by the middle of next week and 100mm by Labour Day.


So the models all agree.  The weather is about to change, and in a pretty big way.

It is still too far out in the forecast to give specifics on timing and amount.  These forecasts will change and the systems producing this moisture are not very organized, they saeem to be kind of sliding past us down the coast rather than hitting us head on.

image image


But obviously the computers have a very wet few days coming our way starting around Friday and lasting through Wednesday next week. It goes without saying that this could break our drought… but if we simply get a massive deluge for a few days followed by another 2 months or more of dry and heat thanks to El Niño and the blob, then where will we be?

Stay tuned.