Mon. Sep 16th, 2019

Gradual cooling but pleasant most of the week. Then big change coming. 100mm next week?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Monday 16 September 2019 - Monday: Mainly cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 17. UV index 4 or moderate. Monday night: Cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers this evening. Rain beginning near midnight. Low 12. Tuesday: Rain ending in the morning then cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 19. Thursday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Friday: Cloudy. High 22. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 19. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Sunday: Cloudy. High 18.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    17.9° C
    -0.5 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.79 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSE 3 km/h
    gusting 10 km/h
    Humidity
    64 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    17.9° C
    Heat Index
    17.9° C
    Dewpoint
    11.0° C
    UV
    1.8
    Solar
    263 W/m2
    Last Updated: 15:05:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    30.2 mm since
    September 12, 2019 00:09
    Civil Rise
    06:23
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (93% full)
    Civil Set
    20:03
    Day Length
    13:14:01
    Day High
    19.2° C @ 13:09 Tdy.
    Day Low
    9.6° C @ 02:35 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    100.98 kPa @ 09:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.77 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    9.6° C @ 02:35 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    19.2° C @ 13:09 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 8km/h @ 14:45 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    958W/m2 @ 12:22 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.9 @ 13:32 Tdy.

Another pleasant weekend has passed.

The mornings are definitely getting cooler, we got down to 7°C at the Airport this morning, and the sun is getting up later and going to bed earlier too.  All signs of fall approaching… And fall may be approaching in the form of a big fall storm.  Keep reading.

Here is the look at the next three days of precipitation out to Thursday morning… nothing happening.  It will remain dry and warm.

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And then here are the 3 days after, from Thursday to Sunday morning…

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Quite the dramatic shift!

While UWash has us avoiding the strongest of the moisture (and look at the sry spot near Duncan!), other models do not. Below is the Canadian long range forecast showing up to 90mm falling by Tuesday next week. (And windy on Monday too).

image

Here is the US GFS predicting up to 60mm by Monday and stormy gusts up to 50kph on Saturday.

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And here is the multi-model consensus showing up to 70mm by the middle of next week and 100mm by Labour Day.

image

So the models all agree.  The weather is about to change, and in a pretty big way.

It is still too far out in the forecast to give specifics on timing and amount.  These forecasts will change and the systems producing this moisture are not very organized, they saeem to be kind of sliding past us down the coast rather than hitting us head on.

image image

 

But obviously the computers have a very wet few days coming our way starting around Friday and lasting through Wednesday next week. It goes without saying that this could break our drought… but if we simply get a massive deluge for a few days followed by another 2 months or more of dry and heat thanks to El Niño and the blob, then where will we be?

Stay tuned.