Fri. Oct 18th, 2019

Full Toy Run Breakfast, Run, Fair, and Poker Run forecast. Maybe some showers, but mostly lucky!

Not the perfect forecast, but good enough for a weekend ride for the kids! #portalberni #toyrun 🙂

Saturday morning Breakfast

The first event of the Toy Run is actually the Breakfast at Fanny Bay Inn (just south of the Buckley Bay/Denman Island Ferry terminal on Highway 19A) at 8:30AM. Here’s the run down if you’re going to be there.

Light showers are going to be lingering in the mountains just west of Fanny Bay in the 4-7AM hours. Below is 6-7AM.

If you’re coming up from the south there are slightly stronger showers in Nanaimo but otherwise the East side of the Island is dry including Port Alberni.

In the 8-9AM hour the East side has dried out completely and showers are only sticking to the higher terrain and the west coast.

Toy Run Should Stay Dry. (But be prompt :))

That dry pattern sticks for the 9-10AM period right before the 10AM start of the Toy Run at Little Qualicum Falls. There might be showers in the mountain pass, but it should not be bad at all.

The 10-11AM, when the Toy Run is actually on, has just slight showers creeping up into Port Alberni but it should hopefully hold off.

Saturday afternoon Rain

The showers spread into Port Alberni for good in the 11AM-12PM hour. Thankfully, the bikes should be done the parade by then.

The rain will pick up through the rest of the afternoon and not start to move off until after 6PM. Below is the 6-7PM period, you can see the band of showers moving away to the south and east.

Dry Night for the Toy Run Dance

By 7-8PM, the rain has stopped for most of the Island except a few pockets in north Nanaimo.

There might be some very light and brief showers in Port Alberni overnight, but nothing important. The south end of the Island, from Duncan south, will be getting a pretty serious soaking!

Patchy Poker Run

Breakfast starts at 8AM on Sunday. There is a persistent band of showers that starts up in the early morning and persists in the west part of the Alberni Valley all morning. Below is the 7-8AM picture. You can see it stretching over Port Alberni.

And it is still there in the 10-11AM picture, but pulled back slightly to the West.

It’s quite localized, so it might be nothing, or you might find yourself riding through a shower. I don’t expect it to accumulate much though. Most of the showers will fall on the hills.

After noon, the showers move off to the south and east in bands between Parksville and Duncan. Expect showers on and off as you go down the highway.

That’s it! It’s not a perfect forecast, but it’s better than it could be! 🙂 Lets hope that Saturday rain really does hold off at least until the afternoon!

Have fun, and Thank you!

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