Fog will lift revealing sunny, warm day! Arctic ice minimum records, global heat and ocean currents.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Wednesday 23 May 2018 - Wednesday: Sunny. High 29. Humidex 31. UV index 7 or high. Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Fog patches developing before morning. Low 10. Thursday: Mainly cloudy. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 25. UV index 6 or high. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Friday: Sunny. High 23. Friday night: Clear. Low 9. Saturday: Sunny. High 21. Saturday night: Cloudy. Low 8. Sunday: Cloudy. High 23. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Monday: Sunny. High 22. Monday night: Clear. Low 11. Tuesday: Sunny. High 23.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    26.1° C
    -0.8 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.66 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 21.1 km/h
    gusting 35.4 km/h
    Humidity
    42 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    26.1° C
    Heat Index
    26.1° C
    Dewpoint
    12.2° C
    UV
    5.5
    Solar
    928 W/m2
    Last Updated: 15:20:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:45
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (69% full)
    Civil Set
    21:47
    Day Length
    13:15:59
    Day High
    27.3° C @ 13:21 Tdy.
    Day Low
    11.4° C @ 05:57 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.01 kPa @ 06:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.66 kPa @ 15:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    11.4° C @ 05:57 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    27.6° C @ 13:20 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 23.7km/h @ 15:15 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    986W/m2 @ 14:11 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    6.8 @ 13:28 Tdy.

(I am hoping this post again goes out properly to email subscribers. Apologies for the disruption, the plugin delivering that service was causing other issues and I didn’t realise it was also handle email subscribers.)

The fog this morning will lift hopefully before noon and the clear skies above should allow us to quickly heat up to above 20°C.

Thursday will be likely follow the same pattern.  Cool damp morning and warm and sunny afternoon.

Rain will return Friday morning though, so don’t take this sunny interlude for granted. 🙂

2016 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum ties with 2007 for 2nd Lowest.

The melt season has ended in the Arctic (NSIDC). The final area of coverage of ice was approximately 4.14 million square kilometres (+-25,000km2).  That would make it second only to 2012’s minimum as you can see below.

img_8989

However, because the uncertainty is in the +-0.025 million km2 range, that means statistically, 2016 and 2007 are effectively tied.

You will notice all of the top 10 minimums have occured within only the past 11 years so we have been testing new lows for more than a decade and the trend has not slowed.

It is hard to expect this trend to reverse.  2016 was notable in that it set a big new record low *maximum* in May. You can see that in the graph below (blue line).  The extent then hugged the edge of that 2 standard deviation below average line all the way into September.  So really, we were set for a very low sea ice extend all summer long.

img_8986

This is despite what the NSIDC calls a summer of “generally stormy, cool, and cloudy—conditions that previous studies have shown to generally limit the rate of summer ice loss. That September ice extent nevertheless fell to second lowest in the satellite record is hence surprising.

They chalk up that surprising decline to a generally weak, and thin icepack affected by warmer than normal ocean waters being transported in from the south attacking the ice from below.

With August 2016 once again being the hottest monh of August in the 137 year record (NCDC), the 16th month in a row to do so.  August was also the 8th highest global temperature departure from average (1.25ºC) for any month on record.  We should not expect any change in trend in the Arctic or elsewhere.

And finally, Ocean Current videos

This is really cool!

screen-shot-2016-09-21-at-8-02-55-am

Click the link to go see the video.  Our part of North America is actually surprisingly absent of strong currents.