Tue. Jul 16th, 2019

Updated 5PM Thursday: First blustery storm for Thanksgiving – Forecast Fixed

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 15 July 2019 - Monday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers early this evening with risk of thunderstorms. Low 15. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers in the morning. High 25. Humidex 27. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning in the evening. Low 14. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    15.7° C
    0.0 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.65 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    91 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    15.7° C
    Heat Index
    15.7° C
    Dewpoint
    14.2° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 3:10:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    04:49
    Moon Phase
    Full (100% full)
    Civil Set
    22:00
    Day Length
    13:25:19
    Day High
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.7 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.65 kPa @ 02:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 01:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Update 5PM: new model this afternoon looks a little stronger both for Friday and for Saturday and Sunday. More rain predicted now for Saturday and a more vigorous front arriving earlier Saturday afternoon. Check the comparisons below.

Enjoy the calm skies this morning as they will be the last for a little while. There is a slight chance turkey dinner might be interrupted on Sunday. I will keep this post up through the weekend and update if needed.

Apologies again for the glitch on the forecast on the side of the page. The problem appears to be with my web hosting provider. They are working on the issue as we speak and I hope to have it running again by the end of the day.

10AM – My web host has fixed their issue and the forecast is back and updating properly (for the fellow geeks: they screwed up their PERL modules in an update last thursday and didn’t realize….”)

Alaska Storm Effects

The is a doozy of a fall storm moving into the gulf of Alaska. You can see the 956mb (95.6kPa) low in the image below for later today. Look at all those pressure lines!
IMG_4819.GIF

Here it is passing the Aleutians this morning on Satellite, click the link for an animation:
IMG_4820.PNG

As the ridge of high pressure to our south finally weakens, (*sniff*) this will allow some pretty strong bands from the Alaska storm to sweep down on us starting Friday and lasting into the weekend.

The wind should come first starting in the afternoon Friday and peaking around 5PM with gusts around up to 30kph 40kph possible in our area. (As always it depends chiefly on the direction but it looks like a good chance)
Thursday morning model:
IMG_4817.GIF
Thursday afternoon model:IMG_4821.GIF

The rain will follow quickly behind but looks to be short lived and light unless you are on the west coast and only really accumulating between 5-8PM.
Thursday morn. model
IMG_4815.GIF
Thursday aft. model
IMG_4822.GIF

I don’t expect more than 2-3mm to fall before Saturday.

There is now predicted to be more rain Saturday saturday

On Saturday evening we have a much more widespread and vigorous front coming through. It doesn’t look strong enough to cause any power outages (again maybe 30kph or 40) that would interrupt Turkey dinner but it is possible so you may want to be prepared. Rain will be light, no more than 5-6mm in total between Saturday and Sunday.

I will update this post tomorrow and through the weekend if things change significantly in the model and forecast but it right now the strongest winds will be right in the pre-supper hour. 3-5PM.
Thurs morn model
IMG_4818.GIF
Thurs aft. Model
IMG_4825.GIF
Thursday morn model
IMG_4816.GIF
Thurs aft. Model:
IMG_4824.GIF

Happy Thursday!