Updated 5PM Thursday: First blustery storm for Thanksgiving – Forecast Fixed

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Saturday 24 February 2018 - Saturday: Mainly sunny. Increasing cloudiness this afternoon then 40 percent chance of rain late this afternoon except wet snow over higher terrain. High 6. Saturday night: Rain ending after midnight then cloudy. Wet snow over higher terrain. Becoming windy late this evening. Low plus 2. Sunday: Rain showers or wet flurries. High 6. Sunday night: Rain showers or flurries. Low minus 2. Monday: Cloudy. High 8. Monday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Tuesday: Cloudy. High 7. Tuesday night: Clear. Low minus 2. Wednesday: Rain or snow. High plus 4. Wednesday night: Rain. Low plus 1. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 7. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7.

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    N 49° 14' 46.1" :: W 124° 47' 60" at 30 m Google View

Update 5PM: new model this afternoon looks a little stronger both for Friday and for Saturday and Sunday. More rain predicted now for Saturday and a more vigorous front arriving earlier Saturday afternoon. Check the comparisons below.

Enjoy the calm skies this morning as they will be the last for a little while. There is a slight chance turkey dinner might be interrupted on Sunday. I will keep this post up through the weekend and update if needed.

Apologies again for the glitch on the forecast on the side of the page. The problem appears to be with my web hosting provider. They are working on the issue as we speak and I hope to have it running again by the end of the day.

10AM – My web host has fixed their issue and the forecast is back and updating properly (for the fellow geeks: they screwed up their PERL modules in an update last thursday and didn’t realize….”)

Alaska Storm Effects

The is a doozy of a fall storm moving into the gulf of Alaska. You can see the 956mb (95.6kPa) low in the image below for later today. Look at all those pressure lines!
IMG_4819.GIF

Here it is passing the Aleutians this morning on Satellite, click the link for an animation:
IMG_4820.PNG

As the ridge of high pressure to our south finally weakens, (*sniff*) this will allow some pretty strong bands from the Alaska storm to sweep down on us starting Friday and lasting into the weekend.

The wind should come first starting in the afternoon Friday and peaking around 5PM with gusts around up to 30kph 40kph possible in our area. (As always it depends chiefly on the direction but it looks like a good chance)
Thursday morning model:
IMG_4817.GIF
Thursday afternoon model:IMG_4821.GIF

The rain will follow quickly behind but looks to be short lived and light unless you are on the west coast and only really accumulating between 5-8PM.
Thursday morn. model
IMG_4815.GIF
Thursday aft. model
IMG_4822.GIF

I don’t expect more than 2-3mm to fall before Saturday.

There is now predicted to be more rain Saturday saturday

On Saturday evening we have a much more widespread and vigorous front coming through. It doesn’t look strong enough to cause any power outages (again maybe 30kph or 40) that would interrupt Turkey dinner but it is possible so you may want to be prepared. Rain will be light, no more than 5-6mm in total between Saturday and Sunday.

I will update this post tomorrow and through the weekend if things change significantly in the model and forecast but it right now the strongest winds will be right in the pre-supper hour. 3-5PM.
Thurs morn model
IMG_4818.GIF
Thurs aft. Model
IMG_4825.GIF
Thursday morn model
IMG_4816.GIF
Thurs aft. Model:
IMG_4824.GIF

Happy Thursday!