October 21, 2021

Extreme Heat Starts today. Morning and Afternoon Temperatures and some Tips.

The forecast remains dangerously hot this weekend and Monday.

As I start this post at 6:37AM the low of the morning has already passed at 16.1°C. It is now 16.9°C and rising. If you don’t have Air Conditioning or a Heat Pump, the National Weather Service out of Seattle put out a great simple guide on how to keep your house as cool as possible.

Here is the image if you want to download it.

Morning and Night UWash Forecasts for Port Alberni

Friday – Starts at 16°C, High of 33-35°C

I am calling the lows and highs for Port Alberni but you can see the entire South/Central Island and Vancouver in the images. Here is the UWash model short range, high resolutions model, it is just a little different from EC but not significantly. The images are averages temperatures in 3hr increments from 2-5AM to 8-11PM.

Tap/Click the arrows to move through the slideshow.

summer extreme temperature scale

Saturday – Low 20-22°C, High 38-40°C

Saturday bring us close but hopefully not over 40°C. The morning temperature is at least manageable at 20°C.

summer extreme temperature scale

Sunday – Low 20-22°C, High 40-42°C

The model does show a pocket of over 40°C in the Alberni Valley on Sunday. There are also a couple spots near Lake Cowichan. The high resolution (1.25km) forecast only goes to 5PM Sunday then switches to 4km resolution which is still plenty high enough to see temperature trends for communities.

summer extreme temperature scale

Monday – Low 22-25°C, High 40-42°C (or more? Possible error)

The lower 12km resolution, which is the best we get at that time, has some incredible deviations from the EC forecast. They are to the point of not being credible, with 40°C spots showing in the Campbell River area and up to 45 in the Fraser Valley. These are outlier forecasts compared to other models, which is unusual in itself because UWash is generally recognized to be an excellent, reliable model at these ranges. That said, the morning low is consistent with EC and we will just have to see what the higher resolution forecasts call for Monday as we get closer.

summer extreme temperature scale

Heat Breaks Monday Night?

Most importantly though, the last picture in the model does show cool air as low as 13°C pushing onto the West Coast and Inland Vancouver Island on Monday night rather than Tuesday. This should hopefully break the heatwave and give us relief on Tuesday but we go back to around 30°C on Wednesday. Again, these models are changing a lot in the farther time periods.

Fire Rating – High to Extreme

Expect this map to change significantly for the Island today as we move from Moderate across most of the Island to High.

By the end of the weekend, the forecast from the Coastal Fire Center shows the Port Alberni region (Beaver Creek) staying high and others moving to Extreme Fire risk by Monday. I would expect Port Alberni to be Extreme by Monday or Tuesday at the latest.

Stay safe and hydrated. Water plants in early morning, late evening.

Take care out there. I just finished watering our plants that I know will get parched. Remember to water as early in the morning or late in the evening as you can to minimize evaporation. And remember to water yourself and your pets too! 🙂

I will update this post, or create a new one if things changes significantly, particularly for Monday. Stay tuned.

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