Fri. Oct 19th, 2018

Environment Canada is dreaming of a White Christmas, are you?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Friday 19 October 2018 - Friday: Fog dissipating this morning then a mix of sun and cloud. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Friday night: Partly cloudy. Fog developing this evening. Low 6. Saturday: Fog dissipating in the morning then a mix of sun and cloud. High 20. UV index 2 or low. Saturday night: Fog. Low plus 4. Sunday: Fog. High 20. Sunday night: Fog. Low 6. Monday: Fog. High 15. Monday night: Cloudy. Low 9. Tuesday: Periods of rain. High 14. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 9. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 13. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 8. Thursday: Rain. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    7.4° C
    -0.5 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.56 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    E 0.5 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    7.4° C
    Heat Index
    7.4° C
    Dewpoint
    7.1° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    7 W/m2
    Last Updated: 8:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:13
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (76% full)
    Civil Set
    18:54
    Day Length
    13:04:07
    Day High
    8.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    7.4° C @ 01:41 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.56 kPa @ 08:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.36 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    6.0° C @ 08:01 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    8.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 1.7km/h @ 07:55 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    9W/m2 @ 08:13 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

You may not have to.  Here is EC’s Special Weather Statement issued at 10AM:

Issued at 2017-12-22 18:01 UTC by Environment Canada:
Special weather statement issued for:
East Vancouver Island, B.C. (081300)
West Vancouver Island, B.C. (081400)
Inland Vancouver Island, B.C. (081500)

Current details:
If you have been dreaming of a white Christmas this year, your dreams may just come true.

The likelihood of snow is increasing as a frontal system currently developing over the Pacific is set to approach the BC Coast this weekend, reaching Vancouver Island on Sunday.

A ridge of high pressure will remain over the BC Interior into at least next week, spilling dry arctic air into the Georgia Basin. Around the south coast, daytime highs will struggle to rise above the freezing mark.

At present, snow is expected to develop across Vancouver Island during the day on Sunday and spread to the mainland coast Christmas Eve. Arctic outflow conditions could combine with this system and produce locally heavier areas of snow along East Vancouver Island.

Snowfall amounts are uncertain at this point but the prospect for appreciable accumulations lies with Vancouver Island. On the mainland side, lower amounts are possible.

If you have travel plans on Christmas Eve, please monitor forecasts and statements for updates.

So the mothership is getting pretty bullish on this whole “White Christmas”, but notice it says East Coast Vancouver Island has the best chance.

Lets look at the models:

It seems almost certain that there will be snowfall on Sunday, at least in the air.  The bigger question is whether it will stick. The incoming system looks a little too weak to really deliver the big precipitation we need to get some real accumulation.

Here is the snow depth forecast for Christmas Morning on the Island. The east side, from about Parksville south seems like a pretty good bet, but it looks like the Alberni Valley and Courtenay and points north might be getting left out!

So don’t lose hope.  One thing is for sure, we will definitely see snow flying in the air on Christmas Eve day or night, and that’s pretty special!  But don’t absolutely count on seeing that snow cover on Christmas morning.

However, if you are driving on points south of Nanaimo on Christmas Eve, be prepared and take extra care. We want to make sure everyone is home safe!