October 1, 2015

Dry Warm Forecast through next Tuesday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Tuesday 25 February 2020 - Tuesday night: Periods of rain ending this evening then cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low plus 2. Wednesday: Cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers early in the morning. 60 percent chance of showers late in the afternoon. High 8. UV index 1 or low. Wednesday night: Rain. Low plus 4. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 8. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 3. Friday: Cloudy. High 9. Friday night: Rain. Low plus 2. Saturday: Rain. High 6. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 1. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Sunday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 3. Monday: Periods of rain. High 8.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    3.9° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    103.12 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    96 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    3.9° C
    Heat Index
    3.9° C
    Dewpoint
    3.3° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 1:45:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    0.8 mm since
    February 25, 2020 00:02
    Civil Rise
    06:35
    Moon Phase
    Waxing crescent (7% full)
    Civil Set
    18:29
    Day Length
    12:32:07
    Day High
    4.0° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    3.9° C @ 00:32 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    103.14 kPa @ 00:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    103.12 kPa @ 01:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    3.9° C @ 00:32 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    4.0° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

We appear to be back into a long dry and warm regime for our weather.

While there is a small hint of rain for the mountains on Saturday other than that it is completely dry from now until next Wednesday…. and given that is almost a week out, it might not be anything at all.

This weather pattern is due to a severely kinked and split jet stream. This is what the Jet looks like today.

300j.21.0000-2

As you can see it is actually backing on itself, flowing to the West rather than predominanly east, in parts of the North Pacific.

That kink is predicted to break off from the main flow by Saturday which is going to allow the backward flow to move over us on Saturday.  This is the source of the mountain moisture.

300j.57.0000

It will then go kinked again with a big bend right offshore from us which will allow warm air to flow up from the south and clear skies.

300j.84.0000-3

How Warm?  Here is what the UWash models predict:

  • Thursday: 24º C
  • Friday: 18º C
  • Saturday: 24º C
  • Sunday: 22º C
  • Monday: 18º C

That’s pretty good for the first week of October!

Next update with be the September Summary – Quite a Month for Port Alberni… and it the Arctic set the 4th lowest ice extent since 1979.  Lots to catch up on.  Happy Thursday!