Sun. Nov 18th, 2018

Dry Warm Forecast through next Tuesday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Saturday 17 November 2018 - Saturday night: Clear. Fog patches developing overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 4 overnight. Sunday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 10. UV index 1 or low. Sunday night: Clear. Fog patches overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 1. Wind chill minus 3 overnight. Monday: Sunny. High 8. Monday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 7. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 6. Thursday: Rain. High 10. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    5.6° C
    -1.7 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.61 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    ESE 3.4 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    Humidity
    88 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    5.6° C
    Heat Index
    5.6° C
    Dewpoint
    3.7° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 17:35:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:56
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (73% full)
    Civil Set
    17:11
    Day Length
    12:04:14
    Day High
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.9° C @ 04:38 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.87 kPa @ 08:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.61 kPa @ 17:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.5° C @ 02:24 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.0km/h @ 17:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    482W/m2 @ 12:21 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.3 @ 11:59 Tdy.

We appear to be back into a long dry and warm regime for our weather.

While there is a small hint of rain for the mountains on Saturday other than that it is completely dry from now until next Wednesday…. and given that is almost a week out, it might not be anything at all.

This weather pattern is due to a severely kinked and split jet stream. This is what the Jet looks like today.

300j.21.0000-2

As you can see it is actually backing on itself, flowing to the West rather than predominanly east, in parts of the North Pacific.

That kink is predicted to break off from the main flow by Saturday which is going to allow the backward flow to move over us on Saturday.  This is the source of the mountain moisture.

300j.57.0000

It will then go kinked again with a big bend right offshore from us which will allow warm air to flow up from the south and clear skies.

300j.84.0000-3

How Warm?  Here is what the UWash models predict:

  • Thursday: 24º C
  • Friday: 18º C
  • Saturday: 24º C
  • Sunday: 22º C
  • Monday: 18º C

That’s pretty good for the first week of October!

Next update with be the September Summary – Quite a Month for Port Alberni… and it the Arctic set the 4th lowest ice extent since 1979.  Lots to catch up on.  Happy Thursday!