Dry Saturday, Showers Sunday. “Historic”, “Explosive”, “Catastrophic” Hurricane Patricia to hit near Puerto Vallarta

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 23 April 2018 - Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low plus 4. Tuesday: Mainly cloudy. High 20. UV index 4 or moderate. Tuesday night: Clearing in the evening. Low plus 5. Wednesday: Sunny. High 24. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 6. Thursday: Sunny. High 26. Thursday night: Clear. Low 7. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 8. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 16. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 7. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 15.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    6.7° C
    -0.9 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.5 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    76 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    6.7° C
    Heat Index
    6.7° C
    Dewpoint
    2.8° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 1:20:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:34
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (66% full)
    Civil Set
    21:01
    Day Length
    13:17:17
    Day High
    8.2° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    6.7° C @ 01:15 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.51 kPa @ 00:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.49 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    6.7° C @ 01:15 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    8.2° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

We have quite a nice weekend shaping up for us.  After the fog burns off in the morning we should get mostly cloudy skies today and then maybe some sunnier skies on Saturday.

There will be a weak front coming through on Sunday morning that might bring some showers before noon but it will be dry for the afternoon.

image

Strongest East Pacific Hurricane, Patricia, to slam Mexican west coast.

Much like we have had to deal with the record sea temperatures from the “blob”, near record warm sea temperatures over 30°C off of the West Coast of Mexico have given birth to a historic hurricane. It is now the strongest hurricane in recorded history. Sustained Winds of 400 kilometres per hour. No, that is not a typo. I can’t even comprehend that. And gusts would be higher.  Thankfully it will not make landfall (god help them) at that intensity, but still category 5.

The latest visible wavelength satellite imagery. Puerto Vallarta is in the bay in the top left of the image. The track is forecast to go juat to the east (right) but possibly overtop.
The latest visible wavelength satellite imagery (available here). It is a perfect specimen. Puerto Vallarta is in the bay in the top left of the image. The track is forecast to go juat to the east (right) but possibly overtop.

What makes it historic? Check out microwave imagery below which shows its development from tropical storm 48hours ago to cat5 now.  According to Jeff Masters at Wunderground and the National Hurricane Centre discussion last night it is one of the fastest forming Cat5 in the satellite era.  And now, with ridiculous 205mph estimated winds currently happening, 55mph ABOVE the 155mph Cat5 threshold, and 885mb (88.5kPa) central pressure, it is one of the strongest Western Hemisphere hurricanes ever seen.

From the 10AM update: ”

it is expected that Patricia will make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in southwestern Mexico in less than 12 hours.
In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing into Saturday.
Microwave Imagery of Patricia

The good news is, and you might notice it from the animation above, the eye of this hurricane is very small, only about 10-20 nautical miles wide. It is known as a “pinhole” eye.  These tyoes of hurricanes are very intense, but the most extreme winds are confined to that small eye.  The other good news is the West Coast of Mexico near Puerto Vallerta (which is in the Banderas Bay, the bay you see emerge in the top left at the end of the animation, is very mountainous, so the hurricane will get knocked down even faster than it ramped up when it makes landfall.

That said, for anyone not evacuated from the closest points of impact between Manzanillo in the South and Puerto Vallarta in the north, the damage will be catastrophic.

Here is some of the latest imagery.

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Latest (as of 7:50AM) showing intensity…
Screen Shot 2015-10-23 at 8.06.51 AM
This map shows Puerto Vallarta just on the outer edge of the possible track for the eye of the storm. But being as massive as it is, it will be severely affected.
This is the latest track modelling. I don't like that the models are further west than the offficial red track. That puts Puerto Vallarta in greater danger. Lets hope it stays to the more remote right. Vallarta is currently evacuating parts of the tourist district and has opened shelters. (I mostly care because my Dad has retired in Saulita, a beach community a couple hours north of Vallarta north of the Bay.
This is the latest track modelling. I don’t like that the models are further west than the offficial red track. That puts Puerto Vallarta in greater danger. Lets hope it stays to the more remote right. Vallarta is currently evacuating parts of the tourist district and has opened shelters. (I mostly care because my Dad has retired in Saulita, a beach community a couple hours north of Vallarta north of the Bay.

 

A closeup of the landfall track. The models are goin riht over PV, official is not.
A closeup of the landfall track. The models are goin riht over PV, official is not.
Rainfall modelling has 4-8in of rain falling in PV area, more in mountains.
Rainfall modelling has 4-8in of rain falling in PV area, more in mountains.
The latest hurricane hunter readings recorded an incredible 885mb pressure and
The latest hurricane hunter readings recorded an incredible 885mb pressure.
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Tropical Storm force wind forecast extends all over the Puerto Vallarta area.

 

2 Replies to “Dry Saturday, Showers Sunday. “Historic”, “Explosive”, “Catastrophic” Hurricane Patricia to hit near Puerto Vallarta”

    1. I would not be surprised if they added a Cat 6 category. The Saffir-Simpson scale goes up by roughly 10metres per second per Category. Cat 5 starts at 70m/s. If Cat 6 started at 80m/s that would have been 285kph. Still not as high as what this thing has produced. That said, when the categories are based partly on the destruction caused, and Cat5 is “catastrophic damage will occur”… then what is worse than that? “Apocalypse Now”. :+) :+|

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