Sun. Nov 18th, 2018

Update 10AM – Deepening Low on the way. Strong winds and rain possible.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Saturday 17 November 2018 - Saturday night: Clear. Fog patches developing overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 4 overnight. Sunday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 10. UV index 1 or low. Sunday night: Clear. Fog patches overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 1. Wind chill minus 3 overnight. Monday: Sunny. High 8. Monday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 7. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 6. Thursday: Rain. High 10. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    4.4° C
    -1.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.61 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    ESE 3.7 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    Humidity
    90 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    4.4° C
    Heat Index
    4.4° C
    Dewpoint
    2.9° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:25:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:56
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (73% full)
    Civil Set
    17:11
    Day Length
    12:04:14
    Day High
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.9° C @ 04:38 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.87 kPa @ 08:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.61 kPa @ 17:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.5° C @ 02:24 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.0km/h @ 17:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    482W/m2 @ 12:21 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.3 @ 11:59 Tdy.

Update 10:15AM.

My poor roof can’t handle much more.  After the big storms in December with 100kph gusts, the meager 50-60kph gusts are causing some severe flapping of our shingles.

Update 10AM:

We’ve achieved a second peak wind gust late this morning of 61.1kph at around 9:30AM.  The first peak was very early this morning around 4AM of 58kph.

image

This should be the final hoorah.  Be careful of debris on the roads. This is Cathedral Grove.

image

The sun is breaking through now.

image

Lots of power outages on the Island too.  Stay safe all. Enjoy your sunday.

Update 7PM:

The Canadian model has sustained winds of 30kph for us early tomorrow morning around 6AM. It does not give gust predictions.

Canadian high res short range.
Canadian high res short range.

The US High Res short Range with gusts up to 50kph around 4AM

US HRRR
US HRRR

and the U.S. GFS gusts up to 60kph later in the morning.

US GFS
US GFS

 

Previous:

Pictures tell the story.  From this morning’s latest run (9AM)

Notice the low approaching the Island from the west at 992mb (99.2kPa) with strong winds sweeping up the Oregon and Washington coast
10PM Saturday. Notice the low approaching the Island from the west at 992mb (99.2kPa) with strong winds sweeping up the Oregon and Washington coast
By 1AM tonight (Sunday) the winds should begin to reach us as the low continues to deepen.  In this image the low is 982mb (98.2kPa).  It is printed in red along the bottom of the image above the scale.
By 1AM tonight (Sunday) the winds should begin to reach us as the low continues to deepen. In this image the low is 982mb (98.2kPa). It is printed in red along the bottom of the image above the scale.
By 4AM the low has come ashore on the north end of the Island.  This should be at or past the peak of the winds.
By 4AM the low has come ashore on the north end of the Island. This should be at or past the peak of the winds.

Environment Canada has not issued any warnings yet.  Their special statement says they are expecting winds up to 80kph.   We often don’t feel much if the warnings in the area aren’t in the 90 or better range.  But you never know.

We should also get some heavy rain.  Expect up to 60mm by Monday.