Update 10AM – Deepening Low on the way. Strong winds and rain possible.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Saturday 17 February 2018 - Saturday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of rain showers early this evening. Rain showers beginning this evening changing to flurries near midnight. Snowfall amount 2 to 4 cm except 10 cm over southern sections. Low minus 2. Sunday: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of flurries early in the morning. Clearing late in the afternoon. High zero. Sunday night: Clear. Low minus 9. Monday: Sunny. High plus 1. Monday night: Clear. Low minus 8. Tuesday: Cloudy. High plus 3. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Low minus 3. Wednesday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High plus 4. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 1. Thursday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High plus 5. Thursday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 1. Friday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 6.

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    N 49° 14' 46.1" :: W 124° 47' 60" at 30 m Google View

Update 10:15AM.

My poor roof can’t handle much more.  After the big storms in December with 100kph gusts, the meager 50-60kph gusts are causing some severe flapping of our shingles.

Update 10AM:

We’ve achieved a second peak wind gust late this morning of 61.1kph at around 9:30AM.  The first peak was very early this morning around 4AM of 58kph.

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This should be the final hoorah.  Be careful of debris on the roads. This is Cathedral Grove.

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The sun is breaking through now.

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Lots of power outages on the Island too.  Stay safe all. Enjoy your sunday.

Update 7PM:

The Canadian model has sustained winds of 30kph for us early tomorrow morning around 6AM. It does not give gust predictions.

Canadian high res short range.
Canadian high res short range.

The US High Res short Range with gusts up to 50kph around 4AM

US HRRR
US HRRR

and the U.S. GFS gusts up to 60kph later in the morning.

US GFS
US GFS

 

Previous:

Pictures tell the story.  From this morning’s latest run (9AM)

Notice the low approaching the Island from the west at 992mb (99.2kPa) with strong winds sweeping up the Oregon and Washington coast
10PM Saturday. Notice the low approaching the Island from the west at 992mb (99.2kPa) with strong winds sweeping up the Oregon and Washington coast
By 1AM tonight (Sunday) the winds should begin to reach us as the low continues to deepen.  In this image the low is 982mb (98.2kPa).  It is printed in red along the bottom of the image above the scale.
By 1AM tonight (Sunday) the winds should begin to reach us as the low continues to deepen. In this image the low is 982mb (98.2kPa). It is printed in red along the bottom of the image above the scale.
By 4AM the low has come ashore on the north end of the Island.  This should be at or past the peak of the winds.
By 4AM the low has come ashore on the north end of the Island. This should be at or past the peak of the winds.

Environment Canada has not issued any warnings yet.  Their special statement says they are expecting winds up to 80kph.   We often don’t feel much if the warnings in the area aren’t in the 90 or better range.  But you never know.

We should also get some heavy rain.  Expect up to 60mm by Monday.