Couple more Sunny Days – Then…. the rain (for Toy Run! :( )

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Saturday 17 February 2018 - Saturday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of rain showers early this evening. Rain showers beginning this evening changing to flurries near midnight. Snowfall amount 2 to 4 cm except 10 cm over southern sections. Low minus 2. Sunday: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of flurries early in the morning. Clearing late in the afternoon. High zero. Sunday night: Clear. Low minus 9. Monday: Sunny. High plus 1. Monday night: Clear. Low minus 8. Tuesday: Cloudy. High plus 3. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Low minus 3. Wednesday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High plus 4. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 1. Thursday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High plus 5. Thursday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 1. Friday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 6.

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Wednesday and Thursday will continue beautiful, summery and clear. We should get up to highs of 25-27ºC both days.  With Wednesday being the warmer of the two.

The view of the Coastal Mountain range from the highway this morning just before sunrise was wonderful.  It was a painting of dark mountain peaks in the distance etched against a purple sky.

Friday will be the transition day as clouds start to roll in as you can see from the progression of images below from Friday early morning through to Saturday early morning.

olr-57-0000 olr-69-0000 olr-75-0000 olr-84-0000

Unfortunately, that cloud cover is not going to be benign.  It is coming packed full of our first good rainfall event of the fall starting between 5PM and 8PM Friday.

Here is the rain scale for reference below.

Rain Scale

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That rainfall will intensify overnight Friday into early Saturday morning.  Here is the accumulation expected between 5AM Friday and 5AM Saturday:

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That certainly does look like a fall rain patter to me!

First Look (long range) at Toy Run – Saturday

Here is our first look at Saturday.  We will get a better idea once the short term model updates this morning and covers Saturday fully but I don’t expect it to change too much.

There is only one image you need to see:

wa_pcp3-90-0000

That image is for between 8AM and 11AM Saturday morning.    between 8-16mm of rain is expected to fall in the central Island region.  The rain will abate a little afterwards, but it will continue to be showery or raining lightly all day ending late Saturday night.  It will also bring stormy winds to the North end of the Island.

The total between 5AM Saturday and 5AM Sunday is between 30 mm and 60 mm and between 60 and 120 mm on the West Coast.

wa_pcp24-108-0000

Unfortunately for the Toy Run, this is looking like a very damp bike ride.  Dress accordingly!

Thankfully, there will be some respite on Sunday as only some lingering showers are in the forecast but it will remain cool.

2 Replies to “Couple more Sunny Days – Then…. the rain (for Toy Run! :( )”

    1. Oh really? It must have to do with my turning off a plugin in wordpress that was causing some major problems with images on the site. I am hoping they will fix the problems soon so I can turn the plugin back on. I will try tomorrow and take a look at it. Thanks for the heads up.

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