Tue. Jul 16th, 2019

Chance of Thundershowers Sunday – Gradually returning to Hot and Dry

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Tuesday 16 July 2019 - Tuesday night: Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers early this evening. Rain beginning near midnight. Low 14. Wednesday: Rain ending late in the morning then cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Becoming windy near noon. High 22. UV index 3 or moderate. Wednesday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the evening. Low 12. Thursday: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. High 19. Thursday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 8. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 23. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 25. Saturday night: Clear. Low 12. Sunday: Sunny. High 24. Sunday night: Clear. Low 12. Monday: Sunny. High 24.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    23.3° C
    -0.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.3 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 11 km/h
    gusting 29 km/h
    Humidity
    53 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    23.3° C
    Heat Index
    23.3° C
    Dewpoint
    13.2° C
    UV
    1.5
    Solar
    252 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:00:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    04:49
    Moon Phase
    Full (100% full)
    Civil Set
    22:00
    Day Length
    13:25:19
    Day High
    24.6° C @ 13:36 Tdy.
    Day Low
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.7 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.29 kPa @ 17:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    24.6° C @ 13:36 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 19km/h @ 17:30 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1194W/m2 @ 13:30 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    7.5 @ 12:43 Tdy.

“Most of the heavy showers have moved out of the region.” Special weather statement ended.

I’m back! 🙂

Tons of unstable air and moisture out there has prompted a special weather statement from Environment Canada.

10:52 AM PDT Sunday 26 July 2015
Special weather statement in effect for:

  • Inland Vancouver Island

Brief heavy downpours and small hail likely today.

A cool upper trough has descended upon the South Coast early this morning. This unstable weather system will generate local heavy downpours of 15 to 25 mm per hour throughout the day. Isolated thunderstorms producing small (pea sized) hail are also possible this afternoon.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts as warnings may be required

The activity is all over the place on the models, so it is hard to pin down where these thundershowers will be.  So you will simply have to be prepared for all or nothing through the morning and early afternoon.

wa_pcp1.08.0000

Here is the lightning/thunder map from the model showing chances all over the Island for thundering. 🙂

lightning2.09.0000.gif-2

The chances for rain fades and pulls back to the hills by evening.

wa_pcp1.12.0000

Focused on us on Monday.

It will mostly dry out Monday, however, there is a strange little patch of rain right on top of us Monday afternoon.

wa_pcp3.39.0000-2

This might be thundershower type activity but there is no such chance on the model so probably just spotty rain.

lightning2.36.0000.gif

We should be completely dry by Tuesday and warming into the mid-to-high twenties again and higher through the end of the week.

Wildfire ratings knocked down for now.

The good news is that even though we are still at High, the fire danger rating for the whole province has taken a much different tone at least at this moment.

dr-7

Long range looking dry and hot again.

The super long range forecasts have us returning to a dry and hot pattern through the first week of August.

Screen Shot 2015-07-26 at 9.56.48 AM Screen Shot 2015-07-26 at 9.56.59 AM

 

Have a great Sunday!

 

2 thoughts on “Chance of Thundershowers Sunday – Gradually returning to Hot and Dry

    1. Thanks Tom! Definitely a stunning picture of just how warm the Pacific has become. The interesting part will be to see what scientists pin down as part of El Niño and what part will be the PDO and what part is global warming. The overriding fact here is that due simply to the surface area it covers and the properties of water itself, the Oceans are absorbing the vast majority of the additional energy being radiated back from GHGs in the atmosphere. How that energy is released (much more slowly than it would be if only land was involved, again as we know commonly from the properties of water) into the global climate system, and how it interacts with or disrupts natural cycles like El Niño and PDO, and is the great unknown that I doubt our current climate models can truly grasp. But the basic laws of thermodynamics tell us energy is never destroyed, only transferred. So we are feeding a heck of a lot of energy into a very complex and powerful system. Results will surely be dramatic at times.

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