Tue. May 21st, 2019

Chance of Thundershowers Sunday – Gradually returning to Hot and Dry

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Tuesday 21 May 2019 - Tuesday: Mainly sunny. High 20. UV index 7 or high. Tuesday night: Clear. Fog patches developing before morning. Low 8. Wednesday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 27. UV index 7 or high. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 8. Thursday: Sunny. High 26. Thursday night: Clear. Low 12. Friday: Sunny. High 23. Friday night: Clear. Low 9. Saturday: Sunny. High 28. Saturday night: Clear. Low 12. Sunday: Sunny. High 25. Sunday night: Clear. Low 12. Monday: Sunny. High 24.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    21.7° C
    0.8 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.71 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NE 3.2 km/h
    gusting 9.7 km/h
    Humidity
    54 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    21.7° C
    Heat Index
    21.7° C
    Dewpoint
    12.0° C
    UV
    5.9
    Solar
    740 W/m2
    Last Updated: 14:10:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:48
    Moon Phase
    Full (90% full)
    Civil Set
    21:44
    Day Length
    13:15:49
    Day High
    21.9° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day Low
    10.4° C @ 06:33 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    100.74 kPa @ 11:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.64 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    10.4° C @ 06:33 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    21.9° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.4km/h @ 12:50 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1243W/m2 @ 14:02 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    6.9 @ 13:55 Tdy.

“Most of the heavy showers have moved out of the region.” Special weather statement ended.

I’m back! 🙂

Tons of unstable air and moisture out there has prompted a special weather statement from Environment Canada.

10:52 AM PDT Sunday 26 July 2015
Special weather statement in effect for:

  • Inland Vancouver Island

Brief heavy downpours and small hail likely today.

A cool upper trough has descended upon the South Coast early this morning. This unstable weather system will generate local heavy downpours of 15 to 25 mm per hour throughout the day. Isolated thunderstorms producing small (pea sized) hail are also possible this afternoon.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts as warnings may be required

The activity is all over the place on the models, so it is hard to pin down where these thundershowers will be.  So you will simply have to be prepared for all or nothing through the morning and early afternoon.

wa_pcp1.08.0000

Here is the lightning/thunder map from the model showing chances all over the Island for thundering. 🙂

lightning2.09.0000.gif-2

The chances for rain fades and pulls back to the hills by evening.

wa_pcp1.12.0000

Focused on us on Monday.

It will mostly dry out Monday, however, there is a strange little patch of rain right on top of us Monday afternoon.

wa_pcp3.39.0000-2

This might be thundershower type activity but there is no such chance on the model so probably just spotty rain.

lightning2.36.0000.gif

We should be completely dry by Tuesday and warming into the mid-to-high twenties again and higher through the end of the week.

Wildfire ratings knocked down for now.

The good news is that even though we are still at High, the fire danger rating for the whole province has taken a much different tone at least at this moment.

dr-7

Long range looking dry and hot again.

The super long range forecasts have us returning to a dry and hot pattern through the first week of August.

Screen Shot 2015-07-26 at 9.56.48 AM Screen Shot 2015-07-26 at 9.56.59 AM

 

Have a great Sunday!

 

2 thoughts on “Chance of Thundershowers Sunday – Gradually returning to Hot and Dry

    1. Thanks Tom! Definitely a stunning picture of just how warm the Pacific has become. The interesting part will be to see what scientists pin down as part of El Niño and what part will be the PDO and what part is global warming. The overriding fact here is that due simply to the surface area it covers and the properties of water itself, the Oceans are absorbing the vast majority of the additional energy being radiated back from GHGs in the atmosphere. How that energy is released (much more slowly than it would be if only land was involved, again as we know commonly from the properties of water) into the global climate system, and how it interacts with or disrupts natural cycles like El Niño and PDO, and is the great unknown that I doubt our current climate models can truly grasp. But the basic laws of thermodynamics tell us energy is never destroyed, only transferred. So we are feeding a heck of a lot of energy into a very complex and powerful system. Results will surely be dramatic at times.

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