Fri. Dec 14th, 2018

Campfire ban lifts Thursday – 43 Years of Salmon Festival Weather

Salmon Festival Weekend Rain and Temperature Stats from Robertson Creek station.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - WIND WARNING IN EFFECT
    Issued: 3:52 PM PST Friday 14 December 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Friday 14 December 2018 - Friday night: Rain ending this evening then cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Wind east 30 km/h becoming southwest 50 gusting to 90 early this evening then light late this evening. Low plus 3. Saturday: Cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the morning. Rain beginning near noon. High 6. Saturday night: Rain. Temperature steady near plus 5. Sunday: Rain. High 6. Sunday night: Rain. Low 6. Monday: Rain. High 7. Monday night: Rain. Low 6. Tuesday: Rain. High 7. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 7. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 7.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    6.8° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.2 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 16.8 km/h
    gusting 32.2 km/h
    Humidity
    79 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    3.9° C
    Heat Index
    6.8° C
    Dewpoint
    3.4° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 20:00:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    43.9 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:28
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (47% full)
    Civil Set
    16:59
    Day Length
    12:14:00
    Day High
    10.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    6.4° C @ 17:54 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    9.1mm/hr @ 08:02 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    100.36 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    99.05 kPa @ 14:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    0.3° C @ 17:37 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 39.7km/h @ 17:30 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    32W/m2 @ 14:11 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Two things seem sure in life, good things must come to an end, and the weather must always be iffy, if not downright soggy for Salmon Festival/Labour Day weekend.  And now I have the stats to prove it!

I will update again on Friday, but as of now, it’s looking like the gorgeous summer weather will end today and rain will invade starting Saturday. It’s not all bad though, fish like rain right? Plus, the forecast has encouraged the Coastal Fire Centre to lift the campfire ban at noon on Thursday.

Today (Wednesday)

Soak it up. The sky is clear and sun will be warm once it gets over the mountain.
IMG_4543.JPG
I took my pair of very sleepy children out to the lake last night to see the stars and Milky Way. It was a perfect night for it and they were suitably impressed even though the light from the City still washed it out a bit.

Thursday/Friday:

We are looking at a transition to a cooler and wetter mode. We should cloud over Thursday and by Thursday night and Friday morning we may very well get some rain.

43rd Salmon Festival! – Stats say yup, it’s usually a little soggy.

I will get into more detail on the actual forecast on Friday when things are more settled in the models but it looks like we are in for periodic rain showers Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

And unfortunately this is pretty typical!

Salmon Festival Weekend Rain and Temperature Stats from Robertson Creek station.
Salmon Festival Weekend Rain and Temperature Stats from Robertson Creek station. Red: Over 25º Blue: Under 20º Green: Over 5mm. Click for full size.

I’ve compiled the stats for the Labour Day weekend rain totals and average highs over the 3 days since the Salmon Festival started in 1971.  Here are the results!  There has been rain measured during the weekend nearly two thirds of the time and when it does rain it’s not a small amount… over 10mm.  You’ll notice that. 🙂

The good news is, the average high temperature isn’t bad… 23.4ºC.  It is still summer after all.  The warm years have won slightly (30% over 25º)  over the chilly low years (28% under 20º).

That said, the die may have already been cast for this weekend and the forecast looks sure to add to the ‘cool and rainy’ columns than the warm and dry.

No matter what though, it will be a fun weekend.  Good luck out there!

2 thoughts on “Campfire ban lifts Thursday – 43 Years of Salmon Festival Weather

  1. now , can you cross reference those stats with the salmon caught? strenghth of the runs? 🙂 good luck and thanks

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