Campfire ban lifts Thursday – 43 Years of Salmon Festival Weather

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Tuesday 24 April 2018 - Tuesday night: Clearing this evening. Low plus 4. Wednesday: Sunny. High 25. UV index 5 or moderate. Wednesday night: Clear. Low plus 5. Thursday: Sunny. High 26. Thursday night: Clear. Low 7. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 23. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 7. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers. High 22. Saturday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Sunday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 15. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 5. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 16.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    22.1° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.94 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NNE 8.8 km/h
    gusting 19.3 km/h
    Humidity
    29 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    22.1° C
    Heat Index
    22.1° C
    Dewpoint
    3.2° C
    UV
    1.0
    Solar
    144 W/m2
    Last Updated: 17:35:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:34
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (73% full)
    Civil Set
    21:01
    Day Length
    13:17:17
    Day High
    22.5° C @ 15:32 Tdy.
    Day Low
    2.9° C @ 06:35 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.54 kPa @ 07:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.94 kPa @ 17:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    2.9° C @ 06:35 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    22.5° C @ 15:32 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 11.0km/h @ 13:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    904W/m2 @ 13:17 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.7 @ 13:16 Tdy.

Two things seem sure in life, good things must come to an end, and the weather must always be iffy, if not downright soggy for Salmon Festival/Labour Day weekend.  And now I have the stats to prove it!

I will update again on Friday, but as of now, it’s looking like the gorgeous summer weather will end today and rain will invade starting Saturday. It’s not all bad though, fish like rain right? Plus, the forecast has encouraged the Coastal Fire Centre to lift the campfire ban at noon on Thursday.

Today (Wednesday)

Soak it up. The sky is clear and sun will be warm once it gets over the mountain.
IMG_4543.JPG
I took my pair of very sleepy children out to the lake last night to see the stars and Milky Way. It was a perfect night for it and they were suitably impressed even though the light from the City still washed it out a bit.

Thursday/Friday:

We are looking at a transition to a cooler and wetter mode. We should cloud over Thursday and by Thursday night and Friday morning we may very well get some rain.

43rd Salmon Festival! – Stats say yup, it’s usually a little soggy.

I will get into more detail on the actual forecast on Friday when things are more settled in the models but it looks like we are in for periodic rain showers Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

And unfortunately this is pretty typical!

Salmon Festival Weekend Rain and Temperature Stats from Robertson Creek station.
Salmon Festival Weekend Rain and Temperature Stats from Robertson Creek station. Red: Over 25º Blue: Under 20º Green: Over 5mm. Click for full size.

I’ve compiled the stats for the Labour Day weekend rain totals and average highs over the 3 days since the Salmon Festival started in 1971.  Here are the results!  There has been rain measured during the weekend nearly two thirds of the time and when it does rain it’s not a small amount… over 10mm.  You’ll notice that. 🙂

The good news is, the average high temperature isn’t bad… 23.4ºC.  It is still summer after all.  The warm years have won slightly (30% over 25º)  over the chilly low years (28% under 20º).

That said, the die may have already been cast for this weekend and the forecast looks sure to add to the ‘cool and rainy’ columns than the warm and dry.

No matter what though, it will be a fun weekend.  Good luck out there!

2 Replies to “Campfire ban lifts Thursday – 43 Years of Salmon Festival Weather”

  1. now , can you cross reference those stats with the salmon caught? strenghth of the runs? 🙂 good luck and thanks

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