Fri. Sep 20th, 2019

Big shift in Models means possible storm coming Thursday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Friday 20 September 2019 - Friday night: Partly cloudy. Fog patches developing before morning. Low 12. Saturday: Becoming cloudy in the morning. Rain beginning in the afternoon. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 19. UV index 2 or low. Saturday night: Rain. Amount 15 to 25 mm. Low 13. Sunday: Rain. High 18. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 7. Monday: Periods of rain. High 14. Monday night: Periods of rain. Low 11. Tuesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 16. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 16.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    15.2° C
    -0.8 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.92 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 3 km/h
    Humidity
    87 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    15.2° C
    Heat Index
    15.2° C
    Dewpoint
    13.1° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 22:25:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    06:29
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (59% full)
    Civil Set
    19:54
    Day Length
    13:12:35
    Day High
    22.9° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day Low
    13.7° C @ 07:43 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.93 kPa @ 21:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.71 kPa @ 02:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    13.7° C @ 07:43 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    22.9° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 13km/h @ 17:30 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    861W/m2 @ 11:26 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.7 @ 12:41 Tdy.

We have had a bit of a shift in the forecast!

On Monday I said that after a few showers Tuesday and Wednesday (those will be finishing up before noon today) we should be mostly dry until the weekend as a system will be hitting mostly the north island on early Friday morning like this:

pcp3-93-0000-2

And that was due to a low going into the central coast:

slp-99-0000

Well, change of plans…. here is this morning’s model run.

slp-51-0000-2

That is a big change. The action is going to happen earlier (Thursday night vs. Friday morning) the low pressure centre is now forecast to be significantly further south (ie. more chance for wind) and the meat of the precipitation closer to our part of the Island and more intense.

pcp3-51-0000

Since the model has changed so much I am going to wait to provide more details until this morning and tonight’s model run.  Then we will be about 12 hours out and confident that what the model is telling us is what will happen.

Stay Tuned for Thursday but be prepared, we might be getting our first Fall storm of the system a little sooner than expected!