Fri. Nov 16th, 2018

Big shift in Models means possible storm coming Thursday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Friday 16 November 2018 - Friday: Mainly cloudy. High 10. UV index 1 or low. Friday night: Mainly cloudy. Low plus 4. Saturday: Clearing in the morning. High 8. UV index 1 or low. Saturday night: Clear. Low minus 1. Sunday: Sunny. High 7. Sunday night: Clear. Low minus 2. Monday: Sunny. High 7. Monday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 5. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 10. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 6. Thursday: Rain. High 10.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    11.3° C
    0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.52 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NE 3.0 km/h
    gusting 16.1 km/h
    Humidity
    76 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    11.3° C
    Heat Index
    11.3° C
    Dewpoint
    7.2° C
    UV
    1.0
    Solar
    351 W/m2
    Last Updated: 10:45:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:55
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (61% full)
    Civil Set
    17:12
    Day Length
    12:04:02
    Day High
    11.3° C @ 10:40 Tdy.
    Day Low
    9.8° C @ 06:45 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.52 kPa @ 09:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.21 kPa @ 00:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    8.4° C @ 07:01 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    11.3° C @ 10:40 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 10.7km/h @ 10:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    397W/m2 @ 10:27 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.0 @ 10:22 Tdy.

We have had a bit of a shift in the forecast!

On Monday I said that after a few showers Tuesday and Wednesday (those will be finishing up before noon today) we should be mostly dry until the weekend as a system will be hitting mostly the north island on early Friday morning like this:

pcp3-93-0000-2

And that was due to a low going into the central coast:

slp-99-0000

Well, change of plans…. here is this morning’s model run.

slp-51-0000-2

That is a big change. The action is going to happen earlier (Thursday night vs. Friday morning) the low pressure centre is now forecast to be significantly further south (ie. more chance for wind) and the meat of the precipitation closer to our part of the Island and more intense.

pcp3-51-0000

Since the model has changed so much I am going to wait to provide more details until this morning and tonight’s model run.  Then we will be about 12 hours out and confident that what the model is telling us is what will happen.

Stay Tuned for Thursday but be prepared, we might be getting our first Fall storm of the system a little sooner than expected!