Sun. Feb 17th, 2019

Big shift in Models means possible storm coming Thursday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Sunday 17 February 2019 - Sunday: Clearing this morning. Fog patches dissipating this morning. High plus 5. UV index 2 or low. Sunday night: A few clouds. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 4. Wind chill minus 6 overnight. Monday: Increasing cloudiness. High plus 3. UV index 2 or low. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low minus 1. Tuesday: Flurries or rain showers. High plus 5. Tuesday night: Periods of snow. Low minus 3. Wednesday: Sunny. High 6. Wednesday night: Clear. Low minus 5. Thursday: Sunny. High 6. Thursday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 1. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries or rain showers. High plus 5. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low zero. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries or rain showers. High 6.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    0.4° C
    0.9 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.39 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    99 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    0.4° C
    Heat Index
    0.4° C
    Dewpoint
    0.3° C
    UV
    1.1
    Solar
    341 W/m2
    Last Updated: 10:50:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:51
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (95% full)
    Civil Set
    18:16
    Day Length
    12:33:12
    Day High
    0.4° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    -1.2° C @ 05:48 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.39 kPa @ 10:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.51 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    -1.2° C @ 05:48 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    0.4° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.5km/h @ 04:30 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    376W/m2 @ 10:47 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.1 @ 10:46 Tdy.

We have had a bit of a shift in the forecast!

On Monday I said that after a few showers Tuesday and Wednesday (those will be finishing up before noon today) we should be mostly dry until the weekend as a system will be hitting mostly the north island on early Friday morning like this:

pcp3-93-0000-2

And that was due to a low going into the central coast:

slp-99-0000

Well, change of plans…. here is this morning’s model run.

slp-51-0000-2

That is a big change. The action is going to happen earlier (Thursday night vs. Friday morning) the low pressure centre is now forecast to be significantly further south (ie. more chance for wind) and the meat of the precipitation closer to our part of the Island and more intense.

pcp3-51-0000

Since the model has changed so much I am going to wait to provide more details until this morning and tonight’s model run.  Then we will be about 12 hours out and confident that what the model is telling us is what will happen.

Stay Tuned for Thursday but be prepared, we might be getting our first Fall storm of the system a little sooner than expected!