Big shift in Models means possible storm coming Thursday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Monday 21 May 2018 - Monday: Mainly cloudy. Clearing near noon. Fog patches dissipating this morning. High 24. UV index 7 or high. Monday night: Clear. Low 9. Tuesday: Mainly sunny. High 28. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 12. Wednesday: Sunny. High 28. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 26. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Friday: Sunny. High 26. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Sunday: Cloudy. High 18.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    9.9° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.86 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    92 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    9.9° C
    Heat Index
    9.9° C
    Dewpoint
    8.6° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    6 W/m2
    Last Updated: 5:55:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:47
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (43% full)
    Civil Set
    21:45
    Day Length
    13:15:49
    Day High
    10.5° C @ 00:22 Tdy.
    Day Low
    9.7° C @ 02:09 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.87 kPa @ 02:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.82 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    9.7° C @ 02:09 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.5° C @ 00:22 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3.1km/h @ 00:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    7W/m2 @ 05:53 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

We have had a bit of a shift in the forecast!

On Monday I said that after a few showers Tuesday and Wednesday (those will be finishing up before noon today) we should be mostly dry until the weekend as a system will be hitting mostly the north island on early Friday morning like this:

pcp3-93-0000-2

And that was due to a low going into the central coast:

slp-99-0000

Well, change of plans…. here is this morning’s model run.

slp-51-0000-2

That is a big change. The action is going to happen earlier (Thursday night vs. Friday morning) the low pressure centre is now forecast to be significantly further south (ie. more chance for wind) and the meat of the precipitation closer to our part of the Island and more intense.

pcp3-51-0000

Since the model has changed so much I am going to wait to provide more details until this morning and tonight’s model run.  Then we will be about 12 hours out and confident that what the model is telling us is what will happen.

Stay Tuned for Thursday but be prepared, we might be getting our first Fall storm of the system a little sooner than expected!