May 26, 2020

Big shift in Models means possible storm coming Thursday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Tuesday 26 May 2020 - Tuesday: Clearing this morning. High 22. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: A few clouds. Low plus 4. Wednesday: Sunny. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud near noon. High 25. UV index 8 or very high. Wednesday night: Cloudy. Low 12. Thursday: Increasing cloudiness. High 25. Thursday night: Cloudy. Low 13. Friday: Sunny. High 23. Friday night: Clear. Low 10. Saturday: Cloudy. High 22. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Sunday: Cloudy. High 17. Sunday night: Cloudy. Low 9. Monday: Cloudy. High 17.

We have had a bit of a shift in the forecast!

On Monday I said that after a few showers Tuesday and Wednesday (those will be finishing up before noon today) we should be mostly dry until the weekend as a system will be hitting mostly the north island on early Friday morning like this:

pcp3-93-0000-2

And that was due to a low going into the central coast:

slp-99-0000

Well, change of plans…. here is this morning’s model run.

slp-51-0000-2

That is a big change. The action is going to happen earlier (Thursday night vs. Friday morning) the low pressure centre is now forecast to be significantly further south (ie. more chance for wind) and the meat of the precipitation closer to our part of the Island and more intense.

pcp3-51-0000

Since the model has changed so much I am going to wait to provide more details until this morning and tonight’s model run.  Then we will be about 12 hours out and confident that what the model is telling us is what will happen.

Stay Tuned for Thursday but be prepared, we might be getting our first Fall storm of the system a little sooner than expected!