Sun. Nov 18th, 2018

Beautiful Weather Continues – A Look Back at Fall Fair Weather

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Saturday 17 November 2018 - Saturday night: Clear. Fog patches developing overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 4 overnight. Sunday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 10. UV index 1 or low. Sunday night: Clear. Fog patches overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 1. Wind chill minus 3 overnight. Monday: Sunny. High 8. Monday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 7. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 6. Thursday: Rain. High 10. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    5.7° C
    -1.7 ° C/hr
    102.61 kPa
    E 1.7 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    86 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    5.7° C
    Heat Index
    5.7° C
    3.5° C
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 17:30:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (73% full)
    Civil Set
    Day Length
    Day High
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.9° C @ 04:38 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    Day High Barometer
    102.87 kPa @ 08:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.61 kPa @ 17:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.5° C @ 02:24 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.0km/h @ 17:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    482W/m2 @ 12:21 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.3 @ 11:59 Tdy.

The Jetstream Loop:

The sunny and warm weather is just going to keep on rolling.  There will be fog in the mornings like there has been the past few days but it will burn off everyday.
There is no rain in the forecast until at least next Tuesday!

The culprit is a warped jet stream that is headed way to the north of us.

300j.81.0000As you can see it then dives down along the Rockies.  It is dragging cold air and snow and rain deep into Alberta and the Prairies.  This will be a very tough year for farmers who started late, had a cold summer, and now might lose everything to more rain and frost.

Fall Fair:

Since I did it with the Salmon Festival Weekend, I thought I would look back at the weather for the Fall Fair Weekend.  The Fall Fair celebrated its 69th anniversary this weekend.  It’s one of the oldest fairs in Western Canada.

Here’s the details, click the image for larger.

The 4 day precipitation and average high temperature for the weekend following Labour Day. Includes first and last 30 year split.
The 4 day precipitation and average high temperature for the weekend following Labour Day. Includes first and last 30 year split.

This year’s weekend average of 29.7º C was the 4th warmest on record after 1950 (32.8º C) , 2011 (32.5º C), and 1980 (30.3º C).  We received no rain over the weekend.   It rains 64.3% of the time over the 4 days of the fair.

Since the Fair has been going for so long, I also broke down the first 30 years and the last 29 years to see if anything has changed much over the life of the fair.  The result is interesting.

From 1945-1975 there was an equal occurrence of 29% of warm (at least 25º C) and cold (less than 20º C).  The average temperature in that time was 22.6º C. However since 1975, the  occurrence rose for warm weekends (30%) and even more for cold weekends (35%) and the average temperature was slightly higher at 22.9º C.

Occurrence and average accumulation of rain over the weekend dropped slightly from 64.5% and 15.5 mm  in the first 30 years to 62.5% and 14.8 mm in the last.

You can download the full sheet in PDF format here.

That’s all the stats I can do for today!  Have a great hump day!