Beautiful Weather Continues – A Look Back at Fall Fair Weather

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Saturday 24 February 2018 - Saturday: Mainly sunny. Increasing cloudiness this afternoon then 40 percent chance of rain late this afternoon except wet snow over higher terrain. High 6. Saturday night: Rain ending after midnight then cloudy. Wet snow over higher terrain. Becoming windy late this evening. Low plus 2. Sunday: Rain showers or wet flurries. High 6. Sunday night: Rain showers or flurries. Low minus 2. Monday: Cloudy. High 8. Monday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Tuesday: Cloudy. High 7. Tuesday night: Clear. Low minus 2. Wednesday: Rain or snow. High plus 4. Wednesday night: Rain. Low plus 1. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 7. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7.

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The Jetstream Loop:

The sunny and warm weather is just going to keep on rolling.  There will be fog in the mornings like there has been the past few days but it will burn off everyday.
There is no rain in the forecast until at least next Tuesday!

The culprit is a warped jet stream that is headed way to the north of us.

300j.81.0000As you can see it then dives down along the Rockies.  It is dragging cold air and snow and rain deep into Alberta and the Prairies.  This will be a very tough year for farmers who started late, had a cold summer, and now might lose everything to more rain and frost.

Fall Fair:

Since I did it with the Salmon Festival Weekend, I thought I would look back at the weather for the Fall Fair Weekend.  The Fall Fair celebrated its 69th anniversary this weekend.  It’s one of the oldest fairs in Western Canada.

Here’s the details, click the image for larger.

The 4 day precipitation and average high temperature for the weekend following Labour Day. Includes first and last 30 year split.
The 4 day precipitation and average high temperature for the weekend following Labour Day. Includes first and last 30 year split.

This year’s weekend average of 29.7º C was the 4th warmest on record after 1950 (32.8º C) , 2011 (32.5º C), and 1980 (30.3º C).  We received no rain over the weekend.   It rains 64.3% of the time over the 4 days of the fair.

Since the Fair has been going for so long, I also broke down the first 30 years and the last 29 years to see if anything has changed much over the life of the fair.  The result is interesting.

From 1945-1975 there was an equal occurrence of 29% of warm (at least 25º C) and cold (less than 20º C).  The average temperature in that time was 22.6º C. However since 1975, the  occurrence rose for warm weekends (30%) and even more for cold weekends (35%) and the average temperature was slightly higher at 22.9º C.

Occurrence and average accumulation of rain over the weekend dropped slightly from 64.5% and 15.5 mm  in the first 30 years to 62.5% and 14.8 mm in the last.

You can download the full sheet in PDF format here.

That’s all the stats I can do for today!  Have a great hump day!