May 26, 2020

Update: Seattle will Obliterate persistent heat record – Back to Extreme Fire Rating – Hot Weather for the Weekend – No rain before mid-August

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 25 May 2020 - Monday night: Mainly cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low 10. Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers early in the morning. Clearing in the morning. High 22. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: A few clouds. Low plus 4. Wednesday: Sunny. High 25. Wednesday night: Cloudy. Low 12. Thursday: Sunny. High 28. Thursday night: Cloudy. Low 12. Friday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 23. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 18.

Update: Seattle set to Obliterate Record.

As alerted to by Scott Sistek of KOMO news. Today will mark the 10th day of the year over 90°F (32°C) in Seattle, WA. The first time ever that this has been recorded in their 120yr history. They will likely add two more by Saturday. And it is only the beginning of August. By the end of the summer, who knows how many days the old record of 9 days (in 1959) will have grown to.”Smashed” simply won’t be a good enough adjective for the magnitude of the meteorological achievement. Welcome to climate change.

…..

As I tweeted last night, we are back to an extreme fire rating for our area and other parts of the Island are rising as well.  Below is the latest map, I will update it when it changes after 12PM.

dr-8

The latest Fire Weather forecasts predict dry conditions to continue in the short term with light winds today and heating over today and the wekeend and slightly stronger winds over the weekend.  Their long range forecast matches mine with a slight cooling Monday/Tuesday but a return to hot dry weather later next week.

It will get up to 35º C today… the hottest day of the week.

All dry to mid August.

Here is the longest range forecast.

Screen Shot 2015-07-30 at 10.16.13 AM

Only 6.9mm on the consensus (Dark blue) line… but there is huge uncertainty with the top end at 150mm.  Put your money on the dark blue line.

Are are 10 day forecasts

Canadian:

Screen Shot 2015-07-30 at 10.23.20 AMAnd American:

Screen Shot 2015-07-30 at 10.24.26 AM

Nearly identical.  5mm of rain isn’t going to make any difference to our drought.

Enjoy the fine weather folks.  But beware out there, and please conserve water the best you can.