Updated 10:15PM Monday. Slight chance of snow remains for East island only.
This will be the final update on this post. Ill have one tomorrow with the outcome and outlook.
The lates Uwash models released tonight back off again on the strength of the Arctic outflow which means less bitter cold air rushing across the Strait to create snow on the East Coast.
Here is the latest prediction for snowfall to 4AM Tuesday.
The snow is concentrated on the high elevations above the Nanaimo/Parksville area and in Shawnigan lake. The best chance for lower elevation/sea level snow appears to be between North Nanaimo and Courtenay and in Ladysmith. Saltspring, and Mill Bay but only the Nanaimo area seems possible to get the largest amount.
The determinating factor of all this will be the wind and associated temperature drop. Here is the current temperature map on Vancouver Island from Islandweather.ca.
The East is definitely cooler (3°C cooler) than the West Island but as you can see from the image below the map, the wind is still generally NW. We are waiting for it to switch around to the East which should bring cold alpng with it. That switch is likely around midnight.
Stay tuned tomorrow. Drive safely and expect anything on the roads from bare and wet to icy and slushy. Goodnight all!
Updated 10:15AM Snow Chances Increasing on entire East Island. Drive Carefully Tuesday!
The morning model from UWash is out and it has more moisture hanging around after the wind change tonight than the last prediction did.
This is the previous followed by the latest:
We should get one more model run in before the wind shifts tonight but I will likely be in a council meeting so stay tuned to EC for updates. However, if this model run proves true then judging by the totals below for the 24hrs between 4AM Monday/Tuesday we could could easily see 5-10cm of snow in pockets from Courtenay all the way to Shawnigan Lake.
It is unlikely the Alberni Valley or Port Alberni will see any snow from this event. We don’t generally get snow from these “outflow” events since we are protected by Mt. Arrowsmith and the Beauforts.
If you are planning to drive Highway 19 or Highway 1 (including the Malahat tomorrow). Prepare to use caution.
Update: 5:30AM Monday – Special Statement ended – early Rain/Snow chance extends slightly including for us.
Environment Canada has ended the Special Weather Statement. I Will keep it in the original post below though.
The updated model last night says the drizzle right now and should gradually intensify to showers and then rain around 7AM. If the temperature drops this will fall as wet snow, especially on the mountains passes.
It will also last until after sundown instead of only noon. The wind will then turn around to the north, get very cold, and bring the threat of snow for the whole east island stretching into Port Alberni rather than just Duncan.
The snow will now fly around midnight. Here is the general precip map. Notice it is across the whole east island and includes us.
Here is the snow map for the same time.
Notice it no longer is concentrated on Duncan, but rather us with very slight snow. I will take this to mean that depending on the wind factor bringing down the temperature, there is potential for snow all across the Island when we wake up on Tuesday morning.
Stay tuned. I will try to update this post again later this morning when the new model run is out.
11:36 AM PST Sunday 22 November 2015
Special weather statement in effect for:
Inland Vancouver Island
Arctic air and possible difficult travel conditions by early Tuesday.
The first Arctic outbreak of the season will bring cold and breezy conditions and potentially difficult travel to the South Coast of British Columbia late Monday night and early Tuesday.
The Arctic air will arrive from the east, spilling out the coastal inlets and valleys first, spreading west toward Vancouver Island on Tuesday. As the leading edge of the coldest air of the season arrives, bursts of snowflurries may rapidly reduce visibility. Local snowfalls of a few centimetres are possible as the Arctic air arrives. Windchill equivalent temperatures between -5 and -10c are likely in areas exposed to outflow winds for Tuesday night.
Near Whistler, snow is expected to begin tonight. The village will likely receive at least 15 cm of snow by Monday afternoon before the Arctic air arrives. Snowfall warnings may be required…
After the Arctic arrival, the South Coast will settle into an extended period (4-6 days) of chilly but otherwise weather-less winter days.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.
Here are the possibilities for snow here based on this mornings UWash model.
The first chance of snow will occur Monday morning as a front sweeps down from the North. UWash is predicting rain and high elevation snow starting before sunrise.
Unforunately for the snow lovers, this is our best chance for snow. All the models now agree with the UWash and are only predicting rain for us. It will end around noon Monday. So unless it unexpectedly reaches freezing tonight, or close to freezing and the rain falls hard enough to drag down the snow, then aside from Sutton Pass and maybe the Hump we probably will not get much if any snow in the Valley.
The same cannot be said for the South and East Island on Monday night and Tuesday. The winds will switch around and Arctic Air is going to spill out of the Fraser Valley and shoot across to Vancouver Island picking up moisture along the way and dumping it mostly onnthe Cowichan Valley.
Watch the wind barbs turn around and the snow start in these shots from the forecast at 7PM Monday, 1AM Tuesday and 4AM Tuesday.
Here is the 24 hour accumulation Between Monday and Tuesday afternoon.
We will see if this forecast changes at all on Monday. Stay tuned. And Bundle up! 🙂
P.S. And congrats to Sarah Riddalls for winning the Facebook Like draw!