Fri. Sep 20th, 2019

A White Christmas? Lynn Ruttan the Snow winner! Winter Solstice 8:48PM tonight

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Friday 20 September 2019 - Friday night: Partly cloudy. Fog patches developing before morning. Low 12. Saturday: Becoming cloudy in the morning. Rain beginning in the afternoon. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 19. UV index 2 or low. Saturday night: Rain. Amount 15 to 25 mm. Low 13. Sunday: Rain. High 18. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 7. Monday: Periods of rain. High 14. Monday night: Periods of rain. Low 11. Tuesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 16. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 16.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    15.2° C
    -0.8 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.94 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    88 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    15.2° C
    Heat Index
    15.2° C
    Dewpoint
    13.2° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 22:30:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    06:29
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (59% full)
    Civil Set
    19:54
    Day Length
    13:12:35
    Day High
    22.9° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day Low
    13.7° C @ 07:43 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.94 kPa @ 22:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.71 kPa @ 02:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    13.7° C @ 07:43 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    22.9° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 13km/h @ 17:30 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    861W/m2 @ 11:26 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.7 @ 12:41 Tdy.

Welcome to the last day of Fall!

(The winter solstice is officially set for 8:48PM December 21st)

For the first time, we have had a repeat winner in our snow contest! Congratulations to Lynn Ruttan whose guess of 3:05PM Thursday was closest to the time we received 5cm of snow at Alberniweater. Lynn wins a gift from Healthy Habits and Laura J. as the runner up (5:30AM) wins a gift certificate for Boomerangs!  Thanks everyone for playing this year.

If you had asked me before the fall how likely it would be for us to have snow for Christmas or even in the mountains, I would have said not very. However, the unexpected track of the jetstream over the past few weeks that has taken it right over or very close to Vancouver Island rather than further north which would be more normal for an El Niño year has meant we’ve received plenty of precipitation and it has broken down “the Blob”.  I’ll have more about that in December’s Monthly Summary.

So is it going to snow for Christmas!?

Maybe.  Below is what the various models predict.  I will update these as the models update today.

First UWash’s “snow depth” graphic for 4PM Christmas Eve (today’s run):

Screen Shot 2015-12-21 at 9.28.31 AM

The coverage is clearly within range of us.  Especially higher elevations in the Valley.

If the Canadian GEM 10 day forecast is to be believed, we won’t be getting any rain at all between now and Christmas and it will all fall as snow.  This has already been proven wrong this morning, so take with an extra large grain of salt.

Screen Shot 2015-12-21 at 7.54.30 AM

That said, the US GFS says much the same thing… again, proven wrong this morning as we are getting rain, not snow as is predicted in this graphic.

Screen Shot 2015-12-21 at 7.55.54 AM

So.  All the models say we are going to get snow while reality at least today seems to show that where they predict snow, we are actually getting rain.

So while the possibility of a white Christmas is definitely there.  I wouldn’t hold your breath :).  Better to assume it will not happen and be happy when it does than expect it to happen and be disappointed when it doesn’t.  As we are often reminded this time of year, our historical chances of a white Christmas in this part of the world are around 10%.

So when we will get stuff falling from the Sky?

It’s much easier to simply predict when stuff will fall from the sky rather than what form it will take.  We will be hovering around 1-3ºC over the next many days so expect rain, snow, or sleet anytime stuff is falling:

After this mornings rain clears away in a few hours, precipitation should start again tonight between 6-7PM.

wa_pcp1.15.0000

But it will be brief and be gone by sunrise Tuesday morning.

Precipitation will begin again Tuesday after 1PM.

wa_pcp1.33.0000

 

The heavier rain on Tuesday afternoon could lead to bouts of heavy snow, especially at higher elevations.  Here is the snow map, showing it might not be a good evening to drive.

wa_snow3.36.0000

 

Wednesday will be very wet, or snowy, as well and then we will get a break Wednesday night before one last threat of rain/snow on Thursday morning.

Never a dull moment it seems.  Have a great Monday and HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE!