We had a decent little blow last night with some rain along with it. But if the forecast holds for tonight then be on your toes for a stronger bout of wind and a whole lot of rain.

They are calling for 40-50mm of rain for our region, if you are headed to Nanaimo, be careful going around Cameron Lake.

Here is the synopsis from Environment Canada:

An intense frontal system will approach the British Columbia coast late today. The strongest winds ahead of the front will develop over the Queen Charlottes, exposed sections of north and central coast, and North Vancouver Island this afternoon. The frontal system will spread strong southeast winds of 70 to 80 km/h to West Vancouver Island, exposed sections of East Vancouver Island and the Sunshine Coast, Southern Gulf Islands, and metro Vancouver this evening. Winds are expected to ease tonight in the wake of the front.

Once we get through tonight and the next day or so, it should clear up before another front comes in on Friday.

At least now we’re getting normal weather for the season! Now the question is, when will be our first 20C day (they’re calling for 20C back East next week!)

So I wake up this morning at 5:30 to get ready for work, I glance out my front window and there is a bunch of white stuff all over the place!

What!?

Here they were calling for 10-20mm of rain overnight last night and instead we get a dump of wet and nasty slush all over the place. Probably about 3cm worth in spots here at Alberniweather.

Be careful driving on Highway 4 today. I just went to drivebc and they are reporting Compact Snow with Slippery sections all the way from Tofino/Ucluelet Junction to Qualicum junction.

This should be the last we see of the white stuff. And later today we should also get a good blast of wind everywhere but in Port Alberni. On my drive home Wed. Afternoon Mr. Madryga said there was a gust of wind at Sartina Island off Cape Scott of 145kph. That’s Cat 2 hurricane strength! Yeeha.

Have fun in the snow all. Stay warm. We should warm up to more seasonal temperatures by Sunday.

Come on, admit it. You’re secretly wishing for it aren’t you ;)
Welcome to Vancouver, Need an Umbrella? :D

UPDATE: This is getting a little more serious now. As of this morning (Monday) the GFS has increased its estimate up to 210mm Thursday through Sunday. With the largest amounts coming Friday night and Sunday morning. The probability of strong winds has also increased particularly for all of Saturday but also on Thursday night . Saturday is still 6 days away, so this forecast could still change but at this point it is pretty ugly.

On the bright side, the temperatures aren’t forecast to be above 8 degrees. So maybe, juuuuuust maybe, Cypress Bowl will get a big dump of snow right in time for the Olympics.

Or maybe they’ll still have to snowboard on the straw bales and 2 month old snow, while it pukes down sleet.

Oh I don’t envy those athletes nor the organizers one bit. They’re really not getting much of a break!

We’ll see how it pans out.

Full Disclosure: My wife, daughter and I will be at the Opening Ceremonies on Friday (nosebleeds! 5 from the top of BC Place!) and Canada vs. Slovakia womens hockey on Saturday. We’re extremely excited and I really hope the weather is OK. We’re also very thankful to my friends in Vancouver who have put us up (or are putting up with us? :) ) for 3 nights! Thanks Rod and Roz, you’re the best!!

UPDATE: Flood Watch Ended for Port Alberni thanks to cooler temps/snow in mountains—But Flood Warning for Cowichan Valley issued (details here)

As Jeff Masters at WUnderground and many other weather bloggers have said… this year hasn’t been your typical El Nino year in North America. Why? Because we had an exceptionally negative Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation that kinked the jetstream all crazy like and allowed waves of very cold Arctic air to flow down into North America and Europe (and very warm air to flow into Alaska and Greenland).

Well… that weather pattern is breaking down now… and it looks like the jetstream will move south into a more El Nino like pattern and flow across the continent, bringing more storms to California rather than us and warmth to the Eastern US.

Before that happens though, we need to get through this weekend. We’re expecting over 100mm over the next couple days, and then probably another shot over 50mm on Sunday/Monday.

Once we hit late next week, the temperatures should cool off a bit and while we won’t be getting any large dumps of snow, it should at least calm the nerves of VANOC as the snow comes back to the local mountains.

Oh and, and speaking of the Olympics. Apparently there is a new data gathering service being set up by the NOAA flying out of Japan to coincide with the Olympics in Vancouver . Their goal is to gather weather data from the West and Central North Pacific waters where data is sparse right now.

The Pacific is literally where most of the weather comes from for North America, so this data will be fed directly into computer models and should make them more accurate in their long term forecasts not just for us, but all of North America.

Update 2: The Snowfall Warning has now ended. I’ll have a new post up tomorrow.

UPDATE:
We have a Winner! Zsolt Hengsperger! The Winner has Won a Fabulous NOMA LED Flashlight! Could the winner please email me at chrisale at gmail dot com and we can set up a time for him to come pick up his prize! Congratulations!! And thank you everyone for playing!!

OK. So we’ve been teased for the past week… I’ve never seen forecasts so variable and unreliable right up to the day of.

But now, it seems… they’re getting serious. They’re talking about a Winter Storm. Those are not words they use often around here. It basically means wind, and snow… lots of both.

Batten down the hatches folks, get out the snow shovels and make sure you have your chains ready. Even though the forecast has been so weird… they seem pretty serious this time, and last I checked, there were snowflakes in the air outside.

Here’s the SnowFall Warning:

Start Quote:

A major winter storm with heavy snow expected for the south coast beginning later today with 10 to 20 cm snowfall accumulation by Tuesday.

This is a warning that significant snowfall is expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A strong Arctic ridge of high pressure over the British Columbia interior will continue to bring cold dry Arctic air across the north and central coast regions. Strong outflow winds through the inlets and valleys will combine with cold temperatures to give wind chill values of minus 20 or below to the north and central coasts tonight into Tuesday.

A moist frontal system arriving from the pacific will mix with the Arctic air over the south coast giving snow at times heavy over parts of Vancouver Island late this afternoon and then spread to the Lower Mainland early this evening. Total snowfall amounts of 10 to 20 centimetres are expected before the snow changes to rain on Tuesday. Freezing rain will begin during the transition to rain particularly over the Lower Fraser Valley and eastern sections of metro Vancouver. The freezing rain will end over eastern sections of metro Vancouver Tuesday morning and over the Fraser Valley in the afternoon. Strong easterly winds 50 to 70 km/h will also develop this evening over West Vancouver Island ahead of the frontal system and then ease overnight.