Wed. Dec 12th, 2018

Winter chill in the news

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Tuesday 11 December 2018 - Tuesday night: Rain ending early this evening then cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Becoming partly cloudy this evening. Fog patches developing after midnight. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the morning. Rain beginning in the morning. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. Amount 10 to 15 mm. High 6. Wednesday night: Periods of rain. Amount 15 to 25 mm. Temperature steady near 6. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 6. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 8. Friday night: Rain. Low 6. Saturday: Rain. High 8. Saturday night: Rain. Low 7. Sunday: Rain. High 9. Sunday night: Rain. Low 7. Monday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    0.3° C
    -1.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.7 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    99 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    0.3° C
    Heat Index
    0.3° C
    Dewpoint
    0.2° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 3:45:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:26
    Moon Phase
    Waxing crescent (23% full)
    Civil Set
    16:59
    Day Length
    12:13:03
    Day High
    2.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    0.3° C @ 03:44 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.7 kPa @ 03:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.14 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    -1.0° C @ 02:12 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    2.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 4.8km/h @ 00:10 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

You’ll likely see this popping up in local news outlets a lot in the next few days.

Last week, Accuweather.com released their winter forecast and singled out the lower mainland and Vancouver island for an especially cold and possibly snowy winter.

You can see the video that is causing all the fuss here.

Accuweather forecast

You should note that he is quite confident in the low temperatures, but less so on the snow. This is because we generally get our cold from northerly artic outflows out of the Interior… This brings dry air. Where as for snow, we need some moisture, which mostly comes from the southwest off the Pacific.

What it sounds like to me is like a possible repeat of 2009/2010 when we had epic snowfall on the East Coast, particularly in Parksville due mostly to a ‘lake effect’ of sorts as the arctic air flowed out across the Strait and dumped snow on Oceanside but left us in the Valley and West Coast basically free and clear.

This is all due to a repeat moderate La Nina and the lowest to second lowest sea ice extent (depending on the methods used) in the Arctic creating another blocking weather pattern over northern Quebec as it has over the past couple year. This will likely bring more ‘Snowmageddon’ type events on the Eastern seaboard.
Bret Anderson also released an updated weekly forecast this morning and it’s looking like the cold than normal temperatures could start as soon as Halloween.

Accuweather cold first week of nov.

Oh, and a shout-out to my dad who’s down in Sayulita near Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. He’ll be in or very near the eye of Category 3 Hurricane Jova tonight. I’ll be watching up here, hoping he stays safe, and maybe has a video camera handy. 🙂

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