Fri. Feb 22nd, 2019

Winter chill in the news

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Thursday 21 February 2019 - Thursday night: Cloudy. Periods of snow beginning late this evening. Amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 1. Wind chill minus 3 in the evening. Friday: Periods of snow ending near noon then cloudy with 40 percent chance of rain showers. Snowfall amount 2 to 4 cm. High 6. UV index 1 or low. Friday night: Cloudy. Flurries beginning late in the evening. Amount 2 cm. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill near minus 4. Saturday: Flurries or rain showers. High plus 4. Saturday night: Clear. Low minus 4. Sunday: Sunny. High plus 5. Sunday night: Clear. Low minus 5. Monday: Sunny. High 7. Monday night: Clear. Low minus 5. Tuesday: Sunny. High 6. Tuesday night: Clear. Low minus 5. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High plus 5.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    3.6° C
    -0.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.63 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 1.6 km/h
    gusting 6.4 km/h
    Humidity
    75 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    3.6° C
    Heat Index
    3.6° C
    Dewpoint
    -0.4° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 0:00:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:42
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (90% full)
    Civil Set
    18:24
    Day Length
    12:32:40
    Day High
    9.3° C @ 15:11 Ystd
    Day Low
    -4.2° C @ 06:45 Ystd
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.25 kPa @ 08:59 Ystd
    Day Low Barometer
    101.63 kPa @ 23:59 Ystd
    Day Low Windchill
    -5.5° C @ 03:07 Ystd
    Day High Heat Index
    9.3° C @ 15:11 Ystd
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 11.8km/h @ 22:00 Ystd
    Day High Solar Radiation
    575W/m2 @ 12:52 Ystd
    Day High UV Index
    2.0 @ 12:38 Ystd

You’ll likely see this popping up in local news outlets a lot in the next few days.

Last week, Accuweather.com released their winter forecast and singled out the lower mainland and Vancouver island for an especially cold and possibly snowy winter.

You can see the video that is causing all the fuss here.

Accuweather forecast

You should note that he is quite confident in the low temperatures, but less so on the snow. This is because we generally get our cold from northerly artic outflows out of the Interior… This brings dry air. Where as for snow, we need some moisture, which mostly comes from the southwest off the Pacific.

What it sounds like to me is like a possible repeat of 2009/2010 when we had epic snowfall on the East Coast, particularly in Parksville due mostly to a ‘lake effect’ of sorts as the arctic air flowed out across the Strait and dumped snow on Oceanside but left us in the Valley and West Coast basically free and clear.

This is all due to a repeat moderate La Nina and the lowest to second lowest sea ice extent (depending on the methods used) in the Arctic creating another blocking weather pattern over northern Quebec as it has over the past couple year. This will likely bring more ‘Snowmageddon’ type events on the Eastern seaboard.
Bret Anderson also released an updated weekly forecast this morning and it’s looking like the cold than normal temperatures could start as soon as Halloween.

Accuweather cold first week of nov.

Oh, and a shout-out to my dad who’s down in Sayulita near Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. He’ll be in or very near the eye of Category 3 Hurricane Jova tonight. I’ll be watching up here, hoping he stays safe, and maybe has a video camera handy. 🙂

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