Sat. May 25th, 2019

Winter chill in the news

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Saturday 25 May 2019 - Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers this morning and early this afternoon then a mix of sun and cloud. High 18. UV index 4 or moderate. Saturday night: Clearing this evening. Fog patches developing overnight. Low 8. Sunday: Sunny. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud in the afternoon. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 29. UV index 7 or high. Sunday night: Clear. Low 9. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers. High 27. Monday night: Clear. Low 11. Tuesday: Sunny. High 25. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Wednesday: Sunny. High 24. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 11. Thursday: Sunny. High 22. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    13.1° C
    -0.3 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.18 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 1.6 km/h
    Humidity
    80 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    13.1° C
    Heat Index
    13.1° C
    Dewpoint
    9.7° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    29 W/m2
    Last Updated: 6:05:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:42
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (61% full)
    Civil Set
    21:50
    Day Length
    13:16:10
    Day High
    15.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    13.1° C @ 05:53 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.34 kPa @ 01:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.18 kPa @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    13.1° C @ 05:53 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    15.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 8.1km/h @ 00:50 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    30W/m2 @ 06:02 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

You’ll likely see this popping up in local news outlets a lot in the next few days.

Last week, Accuweather.com released their winter forecast and singled out the lower mainland and Vancouver island for an especially cold and possibly snowy winter.

You can see the video that is causing all the fuss here.

Accuweather forecast

You should note that he is quite confident in the low temperatures, but less so on the snow. This is because we generally get our cold from northerly artic outflows out of the Interior… This brings dry air. Where as for snow, we need some moisture, which mostly comes from the southwest off the Pacific.

What it sounds like to me is like a possible repeat of 2009/2010 when we had epic snowfall on the East Coast, particularly in Parksville due mostly to a ‘lake effect’ of sorts as the arctic air flowed out across the Strait and dumped snow on Oceanside but left us in the Valley and West Coast basically free and clear.

This is all due to a repeat moderate La Nina and the lowest to second lowest sea ice extent (depending on the methods used) in the Arctic creating another blocking weather pattern over northern Quebec as it has over the past couple year. This will likely bring more ‘Snowmageddon’ type events on the Eastern seaboard.
Bret Anderson also released an updated weekly forecast this morning and it’s looking like the cold than normal temperatures could start as soon as Halloween.

Accuweather cold first week of nov.

Oh, and a shout-out to my dad who’s down in Sayulita near Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. He’ll be in or very near the eye of Category 3 Hurricane Jova tonight. I’ll be watching up here, hoping he stays safe, and maybe has a video camera handy. 🙂

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