October 23, 2020

What will Friday Bring?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 10:37 AM PDT Thursday 22 October 2020

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Thursday 22 October 2020 - Thursday night: Increasing cloudiness. Wet snow over higher terrain overnight. Rain beginning late this evening. Low plus 3. Friday: Rain. Wet snow over higher terrain in the morning. Becoming windy in the morning. High plus 5. Friday night: A few showers ending in the evening then clearing. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 7 overnight. Saturday: Sunny. High plus 5. Saturday night: Clear. Low minus 5. Sunday: Sunny. High plus 5. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low zero. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 8. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low 6. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers. High 11. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers. High 12.

That is the question.

So far, it’s not looking pretty. This forecast will likely change, but here’s what the models (NAM and GFS) are saying.

First chance at precip starts at 4AM Friday, the coldest part of the day of course, soo….

Snow – to start starting light-getting heavier 4AM-9AM. We should be in the -2 to -5C range overnight Thursday/Friday. Plenty cold to turn even warm pineapple express rain to wet snow. Expect at least a little bit (<5CM) before things start to change. Sleet/Freezing Rain/Rain – 9AM-4PM through the day it is going to be ugly. If we are lucky, either the gods will make the arctic air hold strong and it all falls as snow… or pump up the heat and make it all rain, but both are unlikely at least for some portion of the day.

We will likely get a very nasty mix of sleet and freezing rain. The cold air and frozen ground will make for very treacherous conditions.

Rain: I expect it to turn to rain at some point. When will be the biggest question but I’m leaning towards evening time on Friday night. It will be heavy and if there is a lot of snow already on the ground, it will make a mess, and cause flooding.

Wind: Oh, but it doesn’t stop there. The pressure is slated to plummet to around 97kPa, that will mean that there will be strong wind with this storm. Whether it hits Port Alberni is always very hard to tell, but the West and East Coast will certainly get it. And combine it with mixed snow and it could be pretty terrible.

Tides: A little good news. Since we’re talking flooding potential, then we need to include Tides. Luckily, high tide is at 9AM on Friday, which should either be before everything turns to rain, or if it is rain to start, then it won’t be an issue. Low tide is at 4PM which is closer to the peak of the wind and rain, so hopefully Tides should not add to our potential problems.

There ya go. I will update again tomorrow with the new runs of the models.

Oh, and Thursday should be OK. 🙂 Nothing big to report, but it will be cold so any ice, snow, etc, expect it to be crusty and slippery. But you know that already! Stay safe!

2 thoughts on “What will Friday Bring?

  1. I was just going to type the samething Bill. If I remember right, a Winter Storm Warning is when they expect 4 hours or more of freezing rain or drizzle.

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