Tue. Oct 15th, 2019

What will Friday Bring?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Tuesday 15 October 2019 - Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Amount 10 mm. Windy early this evening. Temperature steady near 11. Wednesday: Periods of rain ending late in the afternoon then cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Amount 10 to 20 mm. High 14. UV index 1 or low. Wednesday night: Cloudy. 60 percent chance of showers in the evening. Rain beginning near midnight. Amount 10 mm. Low 10. Thursday: Showers. High 13. Thursday night: Showers. Low 8. Friday: Rain. High 11. Friday night: Rain. Low 7. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud with 60 percent chance of showers. High 15. Saturday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low plus 5. Sunday: Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers. High 12. Sunday night: Periods of rain. Low 8. Monday: Rain. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    9.7° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.9 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 5 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    9.7° C
    Heat Index
    9.7° C
    Dewpoint
    9.4° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 21:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    07:06
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (95% full)
    Civil Set
    19:02
    Day Length
    13:04:57
    Day High
    10.5° C @ 12:48 Tdy.
    Day Low
    9.2° C @ 07:39 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.61 kPa @ 00:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.9 kPa @ 20:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    8.1° C @ 20:45 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.5° C @ 12:48 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 5km/h @ 20:55 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    142W/m2 @ 12:31 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.1 @ 12:30 Tdy.

That is the question.

So far, it’s not looking pretty. This forecast will likely change, but here’s what the models (NAM and GFS) are saying.

First chance at precip starts at 4AM Friday, the coldest part of the day of course, soo….

Snow – to start starting light-getting heavier 4AM-9AM. We should be in the -2 to -5C range overnight Thursday/Friday. Plenty cold to turn even warm pineapple express rain to wet snow. Expect at least a little bit (<5CM) before things start to change. Sleet/Freezing Rain/Rain – 9AM-4PM through the day it is going to be ugly. If we are lucky, either the gods will make the arctic air hold strong and it all falls as snow… or pump up the heat and make it all rain, but both are unlikely at least for some portion of the day.

We will likely get a very nasty mix of sleet and freezing rain. The cold air and frozen ground will make for very treacherous conditions.

Rain: I expect it to turn to rain at some point. When will be the biggest question but I’m leaning towards evening time on Friday night. It will be heavy and if there is a lot of snow already on the ground, it will make a mess, and cause flooding.

Wind: Oh, but it doesn’t stop there. The pressure is slated to plummet to around 97kPa, that will mean that there will be strong wind with this storm. Whether it hits Port Alberni is always very hard to tell, but the West and East Coast will certainly get it. And combine it with mixed snow and it could be pretty terrible.

Tides: A little good news. Since we’re talking flooding potential, then we need to include Tides. Luckily, high tide is at 9AM on Friday, which should either be before everything turns to rain, or if it is rain to start, then it won’t be an issue. Low tide is at 4PM which is closer to the peak of the wind and rain, so hopefully Tides should not add to our potential problems.

There ya go. I will update again tomorrow with the new runs of the models.

Oh, and Thursday should be OK. 🙂 Nothing big to report, but it will be cold so any ice, snow, etc, expect it to be crusty and slippery. But you know that already! Stay safe!

2 thoughts on “What will Friday Bring?

  1. I was just going to type the samething Bill. If I remember right, a Winter Storm Warning is when they expect 4 hours or more of freezing rain or drizzle.

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