September 26, 2020

Wednesday snow start of mild, greener, pattern

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Saturday 26 September 2020 - Saturday: Showers ending late this afternoon then mainly cloudy. Risk of a thunderstorm this afternoon. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Saturday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers this evening. Low 8. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 17. UV index 6 or high. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 7. Monday: Sunny. High 22. Monday night: Clear. Low 7. Tuesday: Sunny. High 27. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 9. Wednesday: Sunny. High 27. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 10. Thursday: Sunny. High 23. Thursday night: Clear. Low 10. Friday: Sunny. High 22.

All accounts, forecasts and models are predicting snow for Wednesday night now. It should start after 4PM?

There is a chance that it will be purely rain. I’m just throwing that out there so no one is surprised if it happens. (covering ones, uh, options, I think it is called :))

With the trapped cool air, the not-so-vigorous system, and the later hour of the day though, we can be confident that there will be flakes in the air and snow on the ground in places, especially at higher elevations. (ie Beaver Creek, Sproat Lake, Sutton Pass)

Brett Anderson is tweeting that areas over 100m can expect snow in Vancouver. So that should translate to snow here too with our valley cooling effects.

Longer term, the models are continuing to show this as the start of an active pattern for the next two weeks at least. They are now also trending toward warmer (more normal) temperatures, which would unfortunately mean less chance of white on Christmas.

We will see though. To wet your appetite, here are Environment Canadas’ probabilities for a white Christmas.

We are likely somewhat better off than Vancouver/Victorias 11% chance.

It’s worth noting that our region is one of very few in Canada (St John’s being the other) where Climate Change looks to have increased our chances at a white or even ‘perfect’ Christmas.