Fri. Sep 21st, 2018

Wednesday snow start of mild, greener, pattern

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 3:44 PM PDT Friday 21 September 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Friday 21 September 2018 - Friday night: Periods of rain. Risk of thunderstorms this evening. Amount 10 to 20 mm. Low 12. Saturday: Showers. Amount 5 to 10 mm. High 15. UV index 2 or low. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 10. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 18. Sunday night: Clear. Low 6. Monday: Sunny. High 19. Monday night: Clear. Low 6. Tuesday: Sunny. High 23. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 8. Wednesday: Sunny. High 21. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 8. Thursday: Sunny. High 21.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    14.9° C
    -0.8 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.79 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    95 %
    Rain Rate
    19.6 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    14.9° C
    Heat Index
    14.9° C
    Dewpoint
    14.1° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    8 W/m2
    Last Updated: 16:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    18.5 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:31
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (91% full)
    Civil Set
    19:51
    Day Length
    13:12:10
    Day High
    16.9° C @ 10:50 Tdy.
    Day Low
    11.6° C @ 06:51 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    19.6mm/hr @ 16:10 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.5 kPa @ 00:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.79 kPa @ 16:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    11.6° C @ 06:51 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    16.9° C @ 10:50 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 22.7km/h @ 12:30 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    601W/m2 @ 10:13 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    2.7 @ 11:49 Tdy.

All accounts, forecasts and models are predicting snow for Wednesday night now. It should start after 4PM?

There is a chance that it will be purely rain. I’m just throwing that out there so no one is surprised if it happens. (covering ones, uh, options, I think it is called :))

With the trapped cool air, the not-so-vigorous system, and the later hour of the day though, we can be confident that there will be flakes in the air and snow on the ground in places, especially at higher elevations. (ie Beaver Creek, Sproat Lake, Sutton Pass)

Brett Anderson is tweeting that areas over 100m can expect snow in Vancouver. So that should translate to snow here too with our valley cooling effects.

Longer term, the models are continuing to show this as the start of an active pattern for the next two weeks at least. They are now also trending toward warmer (more normal) temperatures, which would unfortunately mean less chance of white on Christmas.

We will see though. To wet your appetite, here are Environment Canadas’ probabilities for a white Christmas.

We are likely somewhat better off than Vancouver/Victorias 11% chance.

It’s worth noting that our region is one of very few in Canada (St John’s being the other) where Climate Change looks to have increased our chances at a white or even ‘perfect’ Christmas.