Tue. Oct 22nd, 2019

Wednesday snow start of mild, greener, pattern

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 21 October 2019 - Monday night: Showers ending after midnight then clearing. Fog patches developing before morning. Low 8. Tuesday: Mainly sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 14. UV index 2 or low. Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Fog patches developing before morning. Low plus 3. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 12. Wednesday night: Cloudy. Low 6. Thursday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 14. Thursday night: Showers. Low 8. Friday: Periods of rain. High 14. Friday night: Clear. Low plus 3. Saturday: Sunny. High 12. Saturday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Sunday: Sunny. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    10.4° C
    -0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.93 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N 2 km/h
    gusting 8 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    10.4° C
    Heat Index
    10.4° C
    Dewpoint
    10.1° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 1:35:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    07:17
    Moon Phase
    Waning crescent (41% full)
    Civil Set
    18:49
    Day Length
    13:03:39
    Day High
    10.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    10.3° C @ 01:34 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.93 kPa @ 01:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.78 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    10.3° C @ 01:34 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 2km/h @ 01:35 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

All accounts, forecasts and models are predicting snow for Wednesday night now. It should start after 4PM?

There is a chance that it will be purely rain. I’m just throwing that out there so no one is surprised if it happens. (covering ones, uh, options, I think it is called :))

With the trapped cool air, the not-so-vigorous system, and the later hour of the day though, we can be confident that there will be flakes in the air and snow on the ground in places, especially at higher elevations. (ie Beaver Creek, Sproat Lake, Sutton Pass)

Brett Anderson is tweeting that areas over 100m can expect snow in Vancouver. So that should translate to snow here too with our valley cooling effects.

Longer term, the models are continuing to show this as the start of an active pattern for the next two weeks at least. They are now also trending toward warmer (more normal) temperatures, which would unfortunately mean less chance of white on Christmas.

We will see though. To wet your appetite, here are Environment Canadas’ probabilities for a white Christmas.

We are likely somewhat better off than Vancouver/Victorias 11% chance.

It’s worth noting that our region is one of very few in Canada (St John’s being the other) where Climate Change looks to have increased our chances at a white or even ‘perfect’ Christmas.