Tue. Jan 22nd, 2019

Wednesday snow start of mild, greener, pattern

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Monday 21 January 2019 - Monday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning late this evening. Amount 5 to 10 mm. Low plus 2. Tuesday: Rain. Amount 10 mm. Temperature steady near plus 3. Tuesday night: Rain. Amount 10 mm. Temperature steady near plus 2. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 6. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low minus 1. Thursday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 6. Thursday night: Cloudy. Low plus 2. Friday: Cloudy. High plus 5. Friday night: Cloudy. Low plus 3. Saturday: Cloudy. High 8. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 1. Sunday: Cloudy. High 8.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    2.2° C
    0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.57 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    99 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    2.2° C
    Heat Index
    2.2° C
    Dewpoint
    2.0° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 4:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    4.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:26
    Moon Phase
    Full (97% full)
    Civil Set
    17:35
    Day Length
    12:30:48
    Day High
    2.2° C @ 03:49 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.8° C @ 01:00 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    2.3mm/hr @ 01:47 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    102.65 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.57 kPa @ 04:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.8° C @ 01:00 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    2.2° C @ 03:49 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.7km/h @ 01:25 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

All accounts, forecasts and models are predicting snow for Wednesday night now. It should start after 4PM?

There is a chance that it will be purely rain. I’m just throwing that out there so no one is surprised if it happens. (covering ones, uh, options, I think it is called :))

With the trapped cool air, the not-so-vigorous system, and the later hour of the day though, we can be confident that there will be flakes in the air and snow on the ground in places, especially at higher elevations. (ie Beaver Creek, Sproat Lake, Sutton Pass)

Brett Anderson is tweeting that areas over 100m can expect snow in Vancouver. So that should translate to snow here too with our valley cooling effects.

Longer term, the models are continuing to show this as the start of an active pattern for the next two weeks at least. They are now also trending toward warmer (more normal) temperatures, which would unfortunately mean less chance of white on Christmas.

We will see though. To wet your appetite, here are Environment Canadas’ probabilities for a white Christmas.

We are likely somewhat better off than Vancouver/Victorias 11% chance.

It’s worth noting that our region is one of very few in Canada (St John’s being the other) where Climate Change looks to have increased our chances at a white or even ‘perfect’ Christmas.