Wednesday snow start of mild, greener, pattern

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 4:43 PM PST Thursday 22 February 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Thursday 22 February 2018 - Thursday night: Clear. Increasing cloudiness after midnight. Low minus 5. Friday: Cloudy. Snow beginning early in the morning. Snow mixed with rain late in the afternoon. Snowfall amount 5 to 10 cm. High plus 2. Friday night: Light snow mixed with drizzle changing to flurries in the evening and ending overnight then cloudy. Local snowfall amount 2 to 4 cm. Low minus 3. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 8. Saturday night: Periods of rain or snow. Low zero. Sunday: Showers. High plus 5. Sunday night: Cloudy periods with 40 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 2. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 8. Monday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low plus 1. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7.

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All accounts, forecasts and models are predicting snow for Wednesday night now. It should start after 4PM?

There is a chance that it will be purely rain. I’m just throwing that out there so no one is surprised if it happens. (covering ones, uh, options, I think it is called :))

With the trapped cool air, the not-so-vigorous system, and the later hour of the day though, we can be confident that there will be flakes in the air and snow on the ground in places, especially at higher elevations. (ie Beaver Creek, Sproat Lake, Sutton Pass)

Brett Anderson is tweeting that areas over 100m can expect snow in Vancouver. So that should translate to snow here too with our valley cooling effects.

Longer term, the models are continuing to show this as the start of an active pattern for the next two weeks at least. They are now also trending toward warmer (more normal) temperatures, which would unfortunately mean less chance of white on Christmas.

We will see though. To wet your appetite, here are Environment Canadas’ probabilities for a white Christmas.

We are likely somewhat better off than Vancouver/Victorias 11% chance.

It’s worth noting that our region is one of very few in Canada (St John’s being the other) where Climate Change looks to have increased our chances at a white or even ‘perfect’ Christmas.