Wednesday snow start of mild, greener, pattern

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 16 July 2018 - Monday night: Clear. Low 14. Tuesday: Mainly sunny. High 34. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 14. Wednesday: Sunny. High 29. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 13. Thursday: Sunny. High 27. Thursday night: Clear. Low 10. Friday: Sunny. High 26. Friday night: Clear. Low 12. Saturday: Sunny. High 24. Saturday night: Clear. Low 12. Sunday: Sunny. High 27.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    21.3° C
    -2.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.5 kPa
    rising
    Wind
    10.9 km/h
    gusting 20.9 km/h
    Humidity
    51 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    NA° C
    Heat Index
    31.9° C
    Dewpoint
    23° C
    UV
    1.5
    Solar
    499 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:25:00 PDT
    Station Reports Delayed
    263 minutes
    Showing Nearest Official Station

    Observed at: Port Alberni 10:00 PM PDT Monday 16 July 2018
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:49
    Moon Phase
    Waxing crescent (21% full)
    Civil Set
    22:00
    Day Length
    13:25:19
    Day High
    34.8° C @ 16:42 Tdy.
    Day Low
    14.5° C @ 06:08 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.7 kPa @ 07:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.33 kPa @ 18:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    14.5° C @ 06:08 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    34.8° C @ 16:42 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 15.7km/h @ 13:45 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    967W/m2 @ 13:56 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    7.9 @ 13:24 Tdy.

All accounts, forecasts and models are predicting snow for Wednesday night now. It should start after 4PM?

There is a chance that it will be purely rain. I’m just throwing that out there so no one is surprised if it happens. (covering ones, uh, options, I think it is called :))

With the trapped cool air, the not-so-vigorous system, and the later hour of the day though, we can be confident that there will be flakes in the air and snow on the ground in places, especially at higher elevations. (ie Beaver Creek, Sproat Lake, Sutton Pass)

Brett Anderson is tweeting that areas over 100m can expect snow in Vancouver. So that should translate to snow here too with our valley cooling effects.

Longer term, the models are continuing to show this as the start of an active pattern for the next two weeks at least. They are now also trending toward warmer (more normal) temperatures, which would unfortunately mean less chance of white on Christmas.

We will see though. To wet your appetite, here are Environment Canadas’ probabilities for a white Christmas.

We are likely somewhat better off than Vancouver/Victorias 11% chance.

It’s worth noting that our region is one of very few in Canada (St John’s being the other) where Climate Change looks to have increased our chances at a white or even ‘perfect’ Christmas.