June 4, 2020

Wednesday snow start of mild, greener, pattern

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Thursday 04 June 2020 - Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain or drizzle this morning and early this afternoon then a mix of sun and cloud. High 20. UV index 4 or moderate. Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Low 7. Friday: Cloudy. High 21. UV index 4 or moderate. Friday night: Cloudy. Low 9. Saturday: Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers. High 14. Saturday night: Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 16. Sunday night: Cloudy periods with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Monday: Sunny. High 18. Monday night: Cloudy. Low 10. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 15. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 17.

All accounts, forecasts and models are predicting snow for Wednesday night now. It should start after 4PM?

There is a chance that it will be purely rain. I’m just throwing that out there so no one is surprised if it happens. (covering ones, uh, options, I think it is called :))

With the trapped cool air, the not-so-vigorous system, and the later hour of the day though, we can be confident that there will be flakes in the air and snow on the ground in places, especially at higher elevations. (ie Beaver Creek, Sproat Lake, Sutton Pass)

Brett Anderson is tweeting that areas over 100m can expect snow in Vancouver. So that should translate to snow here too with our valley cooling effects.

Longer term, the models are continuing to show this as the start of an active pattern for the next two weeks at least. They are now also trending toward warmer (more normal) temperatures, which would unfortunately mean less chance of white on Christmas.

We will see though. To wet your appetite, here are Environment Canadas’ probabilities for a white Christmas.

We are likely somewhat better off than Vancouver/Victorias 11% chance.

It’s worth noting that our region is one of very few in Canada (St John’s being the other) where Climate Change looks to have increased our chances at a white or even ‘perfect’ Christmas.