Mon. Jul 15th, 2019

UPDATED: Weather Data Back Online – Summer, the PDO, and you.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 15 July 2019 - Monday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers early this evening with risk of thunderstorms. Low 15. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers in the morning. High 25. Humidex 27. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning in the evening. Low 14. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    19.5° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    101.65 kPa
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    83 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    19.5° C
    Heat Index
    19.5° C
    16.5° C
    52 W/m2
    Last Updated: 20:00:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    1.5 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    Moon Phase
    Full (99% full)
    Civil Set
    Day Length
    Day High
    27.1° C @ 14:22 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.6° C @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    4.1mm/hr @ 17:06 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.81 kPa @ 00:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.51 kPa @ 14:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.6° C @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    27.2° C @ 14:22 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 20km/h @ 15:35 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1134W/m2 @ 14:22 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    6.8 @ 13:05 Tdy.

UPDATED I’ve received my telus router (the new one is quite nice actually!) and I believe everything is back up and running. Hooray!
My continuing apologies for the data outage over the past week. Alberniweather has never been offline for this long. You can blame a faulty Telus DSL router and their nearest office in Burnaby for the delay. The kind person on the phone promised the replacement would be sent by Courier, and arrive in 3-5 days. Well, today is Day 4 so I’m hoping it will come.

On the weather front, we are heading back to cloudier skies over the next couple days but at least it shouldn’t be too wet and it should warm again by Sunday and Monday.

Summer and the PDO:

I’ve been watching the summer forecasts and they seem to be slowly but steadily improving. We’ve gone from below normal temperatures and wet to a call for normal values.

I think the thing really holding us back from warmer times is what I have seen referred to as a ‘classic’ strong signature of a cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. (PDO)

Here is the current Sea Surface Temperature anomaly chart. Purple being much below normal and red being above.


The classic signature is apparently that blob of very warm water above Hawaii right next to the very cold waters off of North America. Until those cold waters warm up, we should expect them to help cool our summer down some. But on the bright side this pattern does tend to enhance salmon and other native fisheries in our region.

You should also notice the tell tale signature of a fledgling El Nino extending warm waters off the tropical coast of South America. La Nina has officially ended but whether the trend grows into a full blown El Nino is still uncertain.

Global temperature trends:

And finally it’s worth mentioning that when
some meteorologists
saw the PDO switching to a cold phase a couple years back they confidently declared that the days of record high global temperatures were coming to an end and we could even experience a cooling off period. Well, even though that has been true to an extent here in our part of the world, closest to the phenomenon, globally, not so much.

Data from the GISS here and elsewhere tell a very different story.

The following are the global temperature anomaly maps for 2008, 2009, 2010 and Spring 2011. The global overall anomaly temperature (between 0.43C and 0.62C) is at the top right of each. You will see it has continued to increase and even our very cool spring has not dampened the global average much.





Even more shocking are these two graphs. They show the temperature anomalies based on latitude. -90 is the South Pole and +90 is the North Pole, look at the difference! No doubt this difference is due to the massive continent of Antarctica changing much more reluctantly than the open sea ice of the Arctic.

2008 Latitude differences


2010 Latitude differences

2C anomaly in 2008 and 3C in 2010… And below is for this spring, a 4C temperature anomaly in the Arctic. Stunning numbers.


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