Fri. Oct 19th, 2018

UPDATED: Weather Data Back Online – Summer, the PDO, and you.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Friday 19 October 2018 - Friday: Fog dissipating this morning then a mix of sun and cloud. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Friday night: Partly cloudy. Fog developing this evening. Low 6. Saturday: Fog dissipating in the morning then a mix of sun and cloud. High 20. UV index 2 or low. Saturday night: Fog. Low plus 4. Sunday: Fog. High 20. Sunday night: Fog. Low 6. Monday: Fog. High 15. Monday night: Cloudy. Low 9. Tuesday: Periods of rain. High 14. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 9. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 13. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 8. Thursday: Rain. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    7.4° C
    0.0 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.6 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NE 0.8 km/h
    gusting 8.0 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    7.4° C
    Heat Index
    7.4° C
    Dewpoint
    7.1° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    31 W/m2
    Last Updated: 9:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:13
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (76% full)
    Civil Set
    18:54
    Day Length
    13:04:07
    Day High
    8.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    7.3° C @ 08:36 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.6 kPa @ 09:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.36 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    6.0° C @ 08:01 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    8.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 1.7km/h @ 07:55 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    33W/m2 @ 09:14 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

UPDATED I’ve received my telus router (the new one is quite nice actually!) and I believe everything is back up and running. Hooray!
…..
My continuing apologies for the data outage over the past week. Alberniweather has never been offline for this long. You can blame a faulty Telus DSL router and their nearest office in Burnaby for the delay. The kind person on the phone promised the replacement would be sent by Courier, and arrive in 3-5 days. Well, today is Day 4 so I’m hoping it will come.
……
Weather:

On the weather front, we are heading back to cloudier skies over the next couple days but at least it shouldn’t be too wet and it should warm again by Sunday and Monday.

Summer and the PDO:

I’ve been watching the summer forecasts and they seem to be slowly but steadily improving. We’ve gone from below normal temperatures and wet to a call for normal values.

I think the thing really holding us back from warmer times is what I have seen referred to as a ‘classic’ strong signature of a cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. (PDO)

Here is the current Sea Surface Temperature anomaly chart. Purple being much below normal and red being above.

20110623-074946.jpg

The classic signature is apparently that blob of very warm water above Hawaii right next to the very cold waters off of North America. Until those cold waters warm up, we should expect them to help cool our summer down some. But on the bright side this pattern does tend to enhance salmon and other native fisheries in our region.

You should also notice the tell tale signature of a fledgling El Nino extending warm waters off the tropical coast of South America. La Nina has officially ended but whether the trend grows into a full blown El Nino is still uncertain.

Global temperature trends:

And finally it’s worth mentioning that when
some meteorologists
saw the PDO switching to a cold phase a couple years back they confidently declared that the days of record high global temperatures were coming to an end and we could even experience a cooling off period. Well, even though that has been true to an extent here in our part of the world, closest to the phenomenon, globally, not so much.

Data from the GISS here and elsewhere tell a very different story.

The following are the global temperature anomaly maps for 2008, 2009, 2010 and Spring 2011. The global overall anomaly temperature (between 0.43C and 0.62C) is at the top right of each. You will see it has continued to increase and even our very cool spring has not dampened the global average much.

20110623-082923.jpg

20110623-082931.jpg

20110623-082937.jpg

20110623-083128.jpg

Even more shocking are these two graphs. They show the temperature anomalies based on latitude. -90 is the South Pole and +90 is the North Pole, look at the difference! No doubt this difference is due to the massive continent of Antarctica changing much more reluctantly than the open sea ice of the Arctic.

2008 Latitude differences

20110623-084248.jpg

2010 Latitude differences
20110623-084259.jpg

2C anomaly in 2008 and 3C in 2010… And below is for this spring, a 4C temperature anomaly in the Arctic. Stunning numbers.

20110623-081931.jpg

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