Sat. Dec 15th, 2018

Warm wind for the next 5 days – Important Climate study update

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Saturday 15 December 2018 - Saturday night: Cloudy. Rain at times heavy beginning early this evening. Amount 30 to 40 mm. Temperature steady near plus 4. Sunday: Rain. Amount 20 mm. Temperature steady near plus 5. Sunday night: Showers. Amount 5 to 10 mm. Temperature steady near plus 5. Monday: Rain. High 7. Monday night: Rain. Low 6. Tuesday: Rain. High 7. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 7. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 7. Thursday night: Cloudy. Low plus 2. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 6.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    5.6° C
    -0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.9 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    95 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    5.6° C
    Heat Index
    5.6° C
    Dewpoint
    4.8° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    5 W/m2
    Last Updated: 16:00:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.5 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:29
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (55% full)
    Civil Set
    16:59
    Day Length
    12:14:29
    Day High
    5.8° C @ 14:42 Tdy.
    Day Low
    2.5° C @ 07:33 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.42 kPa @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.9 kPa @ 15:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.1° C @ 01:31 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    5.8° C @ 14:42 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 7.5km/h @ 02:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    84W/m2 @ 12:29 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.5 @ 09:47 Tdy.

The rain will continue, as will the warm winds until at least Tuesday and possibly Thursday. Mt. Washington is open starting today with a 100cm base.. If you can’t wait to get up the mountain this weekend make sure you are prepared for whiteout conditions. The snow will be fresh, and flying!

In other news:

A major study was published in Environmental Review Letters checking whether current observations from multiple sources of world temperatures and sea levels match IPCC predictions for global warming and climate change. They also did something fairly unique I believe in that they adjusted temperatures to remove the variability from volcanic eruptions, variations in solar activity and most importantly, variations in El Niño/La Nina patterns which greatly affect year-to-year temperatures. Strip those away and you finally get to see the underlying trend.

The answer, yes weve been right for temperatures, but No for sea levels, where we have underestimated.

Here are temperatures, pink and red unadjusted and adjusted temperatures are nicely in the middle over the last 30 years.

20121130-074948.jpg

Figure 1. Observed annual global temperature, unadjusted (pink) and adjusted for short-term variations due to solar variability, volcanoes and ENSO (red) as in Foster and Rahmstorf (2011). 12-months running averages are shown as well as linear trend lines, and compared to the scenarios of the IPCC (blue range and lines from the third assessment, green from the fourth assessment report). Projections are aligned in the graph so that they start (in 1990 and 2000, respectively) on the linear trend line of the (adjusted) observational data.

Here are sea levels, the red and yellow observations (satellites and tide gauges respectively) are quite a bit higher than the IPCC forecasts.

20121130-081047.jpg

Figure 2. Sea level measured by satellite altimeter (red with linear trend line; AVISO data from (Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales) and reconstructed from tide gauges (orange, monthly data from Church and White (2011)). Tide gauge data were aligned to give the same mean during 1993–2010 as the altimeter data. The scenarios of the IPCC are again shown in blue (third assessment) and green (fourth assessment); the former have been published starting in the year 1990 and the latter from 2000.

The upshot is that this study will be included in the next IPCC update due out next fall and we can expect it to have a major impact on how fast they predict sea levels to rise as Greenland and the Antarctic peninsula melts, the sea warms and expands, and the East Antarctic ice shelf fails to gather as much snow as once thought.