Mon. Sep 16th, 2019

Warm wind for the next 5 days – Important Climate study update

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 16 September 2019 - Monday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers this evening. Rain beginning near midnight. Amount 10 to 15 mm. Low 12. Tuesday: Rain ending in the morning then cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Risk of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Amount 5 to 10 mm. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with 60 percent chance of showers. High 21. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 19. Thursday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Friday: Cloudy. High 22. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 19. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Sunday: Cloudy. High 18.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    17.1° C
    -1.0 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.79 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SE 8 km/h
    gusting 11 km/h
    Humidity
    73 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    17.1° C
    Heat Index
    17.1° C
    Dewpoint
    12.2° C
    UV
    1.3
    Solar
    197 W/m2
    Last Updated: 16:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    06:23
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (93% full)
    Civil Set
    20:03
    Day Length
    13:14:01
    Day High
    19.2° C @ 13:09 Tdy.
    Day Low
    9.6° C @ 02:35 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    100.98 kPa @ 09:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.77 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    9.6° C @ 02:35 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    19.2° C @ 13:09 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 13km/h @ 15:35 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    958W/m2 @ 12:22 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.9 @ 13:32 Tdy.

The rain will continue, as will the warm winds until at least Tuesday and possibly Thursday. Mt. Washington is open starting today with a 100cm base.. If you can’t wait to get up the mountain this weekend make sure you are prepared for whiteout conditions. The snow will be fresh, and flying!

In other news:

A major study was published in Environmental Review Letters checking whether current observations from multiple sources of world temperatures and sea levels match IPCC predictions for global warming and climate change. They also did something fairly unique I believe in that they adjusted temperatures to remove the variability from volcanic eruptions, variations in solar activity and most importantly, variations in El Niño/La Nina patterns which greatly affect year-to-year temperatures. Strip those away and you finally get to see the underlying trend.

The answer, yes weve been right for temperatures, but No for sea levels, where we have underestimated.

Here are temperatures, pink and red unadjusted and adjusted temperatures are nicely in the middle over the last 30 years.

20121130-074948.jpg

Figure 1. Observed annual global temperature, unadjusted (pink) and adjusted for short-term variations due to solar variability, volcanoes and ENSO (red) as in Foster and Rahmstorf (2011). 12-months running averages are shown as well as linear trend lines, and compared to the scenarios of the IPCC (blue range and lines from the third assessment, green from the fourth assessment report). Projections are aligned in the graph so that they start (in 1990 and 2000, respectively) on the linear trend line of the (adjusted) observational data.

Here are sea levels, the red and yellow observations (satellites and tide gauges respectively) are quite a bit higher than the IPCC forecasts.

20121130-081047.jpg

Figure 2. Sea level measured by satellite altimeter (red with linear trend line; AVISO data from (Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales) and reconstructed from tide gauges (orange, monthly data from Church and White (2011)). Tide gauge data were aligned to give the same mean during 1993–2010 as the altimeter data. The scenarios of the IPCC are again shown in blue (third assessment) and green (fourth assessment); the former have been published starting in the year 1990 and the latter from 2000.

The upshot is that this study will be included in the next IPCC update due out next fall and we can expect it to have a major impact on how fast they predict sea levels to rise as Greenland and the Antarctic peninsula melts, the sea warms and expands, and the East Antarctic ice shelf fails to gather as much snow as once thought.