Tue. May 21st, 2019

Warm today then wet, virtually impossible heat in Australia, global action works.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Tuesday 21 May 2019 - Tuesday: Mainly sunny. High 20. UV index 7 or high. Tuesday night: Clear. Fog patches developing before morning. Low 8. Wednesday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 27. UV index 7 or high. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 8. Thursday: Sunny. High 26. Thursday night: Clear. Low 12. Friday: Sunny. High 23. Friday night: Clear. Low 9. Saturday: Sunny. High 28. Saturday night: Clear. Low 12. Sunday: Sunny. High 25. Sunday night: Clear. Low 12. Monday: Sunny. High 24.

  • Current Conditions
    21.4° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    100.71 kPa
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    53 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    21.4° C
    Heat Index
    21.4° C
    11.4° C
    607 W/m2
    Last Updated: 14:30:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    Moon Phase
    Full (90% full)
    Civil Set
    Day Length
    Day High
    21.9° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day Low
    10.4° C @ 06:33 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    Day High Barometer
    100.74 kPa @ 11:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.64 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    10.4° C @ 06:33 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    21.9° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.4km/h @ 12:50 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1243W/m2 @ 14:02 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    6.9 @ 13:55 Tdy.

It should be pretty nice today with some sun and some cloud. We are slated to get to around 12°C.

Tomorrow afternoon we will get into some serious rain. It should start around noon and deliver 16mm by Wednesday. I’ll have more details tomorrow.

Australian Heat Virtually Impossible with Human Influence

The World Meteorological Organization (the body that attempts to compile the worlds weather data amongst all of the nations) has released a report on the global state of the climate in 2013.

There is a ton of interesting information from around the world, but they spent some time on Australia’s record summer in 2012/2013 and record hot year overall, they conclude: (emphasis added)


In summary, comparing climate model simulations with and without human factors shows that the record hot Australian summer of 2012/2013 was about five times as likely as a result of human-induced influence on climate and that the record hot calendar year of 2013 would have been virtually impossible without human contributions of heat-trapping gases, illustrating that some extreme events are becoming much more likely due to climate change.

Those are the strongest words I’ve read from any official report attributing global warming/climate change and extreme weather to humanity.

And to deflect the deflect any inevitable ‘the earth has been here before’ arguments from your friends, yes, no one is arguing that. But this is not millions of years ago. This is today in this Epoch, within an otherwise stable climate that has allowed the human species and millions of others to flourish for 100s of thousands and millions of years.

Record high Greenhouse Gas Levels

The report states carbon dioxide (CO2) levels are now 41% higher, methane (CH4) concentrations are 160% higher, and nitrous oxide (N2O) 20% higher, than pre-industrial levels which represents a 32% increase in total radiative forcing in the atmosphere (ie. the amount of heat it traps) relative to the year 1750.

That means since the industrial revolution (but mostly concentration in the post-WWII era) humanity has caused the earth to be able to trap 1/3rd more heat.

We are simultaneously the proverbial frog in the pot of water on the stove as well as the invisible hand turning the heat dial up from 3, to 4.

Global action works – see shrinking Ozone hole

The report mentions the Ozone hole and how it is slowly shrinking after being at its largest in 2000 and 2006. It can only be shrinking because the world decided in Montreal in 1998 to end the use of CFCs. So we know global action works and can reverse the damage humanity has done to the atmosphere.

We can, and must, stop arguing about CO2, ignore the lobbying of the oil companies. and act in the interest of the world.>