Tue. Dec 11th, 2018

Warm today then wet, virtually impossible heat in Australia, global action works.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PST Tuesday 11 December 2018 - Tuesday: Rain. Amount 15 to 25 mm. High 6. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers early this evening then partly cloudy. Fog patches developing after midnight. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the morning. Rain beginning in the morning. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. Amount 10 to 15 mm. High 6. Wednesday night: Periods of rain. Low 6. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 6. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 8. Friday night: Rain. Low 6. Saturday: Rain. High 8. Saturday night: Rain. Low 7. Sunday: Rain. High 9. Sunday night: Rain. Low 7. Monday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    5.4° C
    0.0 ° C/hr
    100.06 kPa
    S 1.2 km/h
    gusting 6.4 km/h
    100 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    5.4° C
    Heat Index
    5.4° C
    5.4° C
    25 W/m2
    Last Updated: 15:25:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    37.8 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    Moon Phase
    Waxing crescent (19% full)
    Civil Set
    Day Length
    Day High
    5.8° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    3.2° C @ 07:47 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    8.9mm/hr @ 07:16 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.45 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    99.93 kPa @ 10:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.1° C @ 11:14 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    5.8° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.6km/h @ 14:25 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    499W/m2 @ 13:25 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.9 @ 13:21 Tdy.

It should be pretty nice today with some sun and some cloud. We are slated to get to around 12°C.

Tomorrow afternoon we will get into some serious rain. It should start around noon and deliver 16mm by Wednesday. I’ll have more details tomorrow.

Australian Heat Virtually Impossible with Human Influence

The World Meteorological Organization (the body that attempts to compile the worlds weather data amongst all of the nations) has released a report on the global state of the climate in 2013.

There is a ton of interesting information from around the world, but they spent some time on Australia’s record summer in 2012/2013 and record hot year overall, they conclude: (emphasis added)


In summary, comparing climate model simulations with and without human factors shows that the record hot Australian summer of 2012/2013 was about five times as likely as a result of human-induced influence on climate and that the record hot calendar year of 2013 would have been virtually impossible without human contributions of heat-trapping gases, illustrating that some extreme events are becoming much more likely due to climate change.

Those are the strongest words I’ve read from any official report attributing global warming/climate change and extreme weather to humanity.

And to deflect the deflect any inevitable ‘the earth has been here before’ arguments from your friends, yes, no one is arguing that. But this is not millions of years ago. This is today in this Epoch, within an otherwise stable climate that has allowed the human species and millions of others to flourish for 100s of thousands and millions of years.

Record high Greenhouse Gas Levels

The report states carbon dioxide (CO2) levels are now 41% higher, methane (CH4) concentrations are 160% higher, and nitrous oxide (N2O) 20% higher, than pre-industrial levels which represents a 32% increase in total radiative forcing in the atmosphere (ie. the amount of heat it traps) relative to the year 1750.

That means since the industrial revolution (but mostly concentration in the post-WWII era) humanity has caused the earth to be able to trap 1/3rd more heat.

We are simultaneously the proverbial frog in the pot of water on the stove as well as the invisible hand turning the heat dial up from 3, to 4.

Global action works – see shrinking Ozone hole

The report mentions the Ozone hole and how it is slowly shrinking after being at its largest in 2000 and 2006. It can only be shrinking because the world decided in Montreal in 1998 to end the use of CFCs. So we know global action works and can reverse the damage humanity has done to the atmosphere.

We can, and must, stop arguing about CO2, ignore the lobbying of the oil companies. and act in the interest of the world.>