Fri. Sep 20th, 2019

TSUNAMI Anniversary – Being Prepared – Rain today, then showers. Then warm Monday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Friday 20 September 2019 - Friday night: Partly cloudy. Fog patches developing before morning. Low 12. Saturday: Becoming cloudy in the morning. Rain beginning in the afternoon. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 19. UV index 2 or low. Saturday night: Rain. Amount 15 to 25 mm. Low 13. Sunday: Rain. High 18. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 7. Monday: Periods of rain. High 14. Monday night: Periods of rain. Low 11. Tuesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 16. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 16.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    15.6° C
    -1.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.92 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    86 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    15.6° C
    Heat Index
    15.6° C
    Dewpoint
    13.2° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 21:55:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    06:29
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (60% full)
    Civil Set
    19:54
    Day Length
    13:12:35
    Day High
    22.9° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day Low
    13.7° C @ 07:43 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.92 kPa @ 21:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.71 kPa @ 02:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    13.7° C @ 07:43 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    22.9° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 13km/h @ 17:30 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    861W/m2 @ 11:26 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.7 @ 12:41 Tdy.

On this day 50 years ago, the largest recorded Earthquake in North American, measuring 9.2, struck in Alaska. it caused huge deformations in Alaska, including Anchorage.

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It sent a Tsunami that wiped out much of low lying Port Alberni. It was totally unexpected, and struck around midnight so the fact there were no deaths is a near miracle.

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My 6yr old son declared a few days ago when we were chatting about this that if there is an earthquake then we all have to go to the hospital because that’s a safe place and it’s high up. I don’t know if he would be so clear minded after 3 minutes of shaking from a major Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake off our shore but it’s at least encouraging he’s got the right idea. There will be drills this morning and an event down at the Maritime Discovery Centre commemorating the day. Check the newspapers or the Peak for details.

The Peak reported this morning that we have a 1 in 9 chance of seeing that major earthquake, and likely resulting Tsunami in the next 50 years. You’d play the lottery on those odds.

There was no video taken of the Tsunami in 1964 of course. So it is a little hard to imagine just what it would look like. However, we do have other examples that we can look to. The most obvious, and most similar, is the 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami. The video below is, I think, the best example of what would happen here. It looks like a town similar in size, and geography. As was the case here apparently in 1964, it was the second wave, not the first, that brought the greatest damage. So I recommend watching the whole thing.

And here is another from ground level in a different town. Obviously these people thought they’d be fine… they were wrong. (Skip to 3min in if you want to speed things up)

Unlike this Japanese town, Port Alberni has no sea walls that would protect itself even from a small Tsunami, let alone a massive one like this one, or the one we would receive from The Big One. So our only escape, once the shaking stopped, would be to get to high ground within 10 minutes. The Tsunami would start within 15 minutes. Note the lucky individuals in this video are likely in a concrete multi-storey building that obviously could withstand the wave. We have no such structures in our Tsunami zone. It does make me wonder just how much our government believes we are willing to allow to be washed away and destroyed given our obvious risk to this kind of disaster.

Preparation is key. And in the event of a disaster, you would be on your own for as long as a week or two weeks before help arrived in earnest. This website likely would not be running, so sorry, you are truly, on your own. 😉

The forecast

It’s already raining and it’s going to keep right on raining all day Friday. The weekend will be pretty showery and wet too but not too bad.

We should get some relief Monday. The charts below show it is supposed to be well over 10°C and partly sunny.

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