Mon. Jul 15th, 2019

TSUNAMI Anniversary – Being Prepared – Rain today, then showers. Then warm Monday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 15 July 2019 - Monday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers early this evening with risk of thunderstorms. Low 15. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers in the morning. High 25. Humidex 27. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning in the evening. Low 14. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    19.2° C
    -0.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.65 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    86 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    19.2° C
    Heat Index
    19.2° C
    Dewpoint
    16.8° C
    UV
    0.5
    Solar
    99 W/m2
    Last Updated: 19:25:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    1.5 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    04:47
    Moon Phase
    Full (99% full)
    Civil Set
    22:01
    Day Length
    13:25:13
    Day High
    27.1° C @ 14:22 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.6° C @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    4.1mm/hr @ 17:06 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.81 kPa @ 00:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.51 kPa @ 14:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.6° C @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    27.2° C @ 14:22 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 20km/h @ 15:35 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1134W/m2 @ 14:22 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    6.8 @ 13:05 Tdy.

On this day 50 years ago, the largest recorded Earthquake in North American, measuring 9.2, struck in Alaska. it caused huge deformations in Alaska, including Anchorage.

20140328-071411.jpg

It sent a Tsunami that wiped out much of low lying Port Alberni. It was totally unexpected, and struck around midnight so the fact there were no deaths is a near miracle.

20140328-072302.jpg

My 6yr old son declared a few days ago when we were chatting about this that if there is an earthquake then we all have to go to the hospital because that’s a safe place and it’s high up. I don’t know if he would be so clear minded after 3 minutes of shaking from a major Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake off our shore but it’s at least encouraging he’s got the right idea. There will be drills this morning and an event down at the Maritime Discovery Centre commemorating the day. Check the newspapers or the Peak for details.

The Peak reported this morning that we have a 1 in 9 chance of seeing that major earthquake, and likely resulting Tsunami in the next 50 years. You’d play the lottery on those odds.

There was no video taken of the Tsunami in 1964 of course. So it is a little hard to imagine just what it would look like. However, we do have other examples that we can look to. The most obvious, and most similar, is the 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami. The video below is, I think, the best example of what would happen here. It looks like a town similar in size, and geography. As was the case here apparently in 1964, it was the second wave, not the first, that brought the greatest damage. So I recommend watching the whole thing.

And here is another from ground level in a different town. Obviously these people thought they’d be fine… they were wrong. (Skip to 3min in if you want to speed things up)

Unlike this Japanese town, Port Alberni has no sea walls that would protect itself even from a small Tsunami, let alone a massive one like this one, or the one we would receive from The Big One. So our only escape, once the shaking stopped, would be to get to high ground within 10 minutes. The Tsunami would start within 15 minutes. Note the lucky individuals in this video are likely in a concrete multi-storey building that obviously could withstand the wave. We have no such structures in our Tsunami zone. It does make me wonder just how much our government believes we are willing to allow to be washed away and destroyed given our obvious risk to this kind of disaster.

Preparation is key. And in the event of a disaster, you would be on your own for as long as a week or two weeks before help arrived in earnest. This website likely would not be running, so sorry, you are truly, on your own. 😉

The forecast

It’s already raining and it’s going to keep right on raining all day Friday. The weekend will be pretty showery and wet too but not too bad.

We should get some relief Monday. The charts below show it is supposed to be well over 10°C and partly sunny.

20140328-065455.jpg20140328-065459.jpg