Updated Thursday: Travelling this weekend? Prepare for Significant Snow.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Sunday 22 July 2018 - Sunday: Sunny. High 31. Humidex 33. UV index 8 or very high. Sunday night: Clear. Low 13. Monday: Sunny. High 32. Humidex 33. Monday night: Clear. Low 13. Tuesday: Sunny. High 34. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 13. Wednesday: Sunny. High 35. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 13. Thursday: Sunny. High 34. Thursday night: Clear. Low 14. Friday: Sunny. High 29. Friday night: Clear. Low 15. Saturday: Sunny. High 29.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    14.1° C
    1.7 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.38 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    84 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    14.1° C
    Heat Index
    14.1° C
    Dewpoint
    11.4° C
    UV
    0.5
    Solar
    77 W/m2
    Last Updated: 7:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:57
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (77% full)
    Civil Set
    21:52
    Day Length
    13:25:41
    Day High
    17.4° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.4° C @ 06:05 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.38 kPa @ 07:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.3 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.4° C @ 06:05 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    17.4° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:25 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    83W/m2 @ 07:19 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.5 @ 07:10 Tdy.

Update: BRRR! It’s cold out there. The models have shifted the snow from Sunday to Monday morning. Environment Canada has also issued a Special Weather statement warning of the possibility of a snow storm.

We have to wait until the forecast comes into the short term before saying for sure where and when and how much… But the possibility continues.

I will have a full update tomorrow.


Unlike November and December where we had a few times when snow was in the models but never really materialized, this weekend looks different.
20140205-064852.jpg

Above is the snow forecast for Sunday between 4AM and 7AM. It shows a strong band of 2 or more inches of snow falling in that 3 hour period all the way from sea level in Barkley Sound to the highlands of Cowichan Lake.

That is by far the strongest indicator I’ve seen this winter for snow. And because it has that band extending even into Barkley Sound and the south end of the Alberni Inlet I’m inclined to believe there might be a little more snow in our future than the models predict right now.

This is what is expected for between 4AM Sunday and Monday.
20140205-065433.jpg
This is a lower resolution 12KM forecast. We will have to wait a couple more days before the 4KM resolution forecast comes in that can give us a specific forecast for the Valley, but the image above is pretty clear.

Widespread snowfall of 8-10cm (3.5″ to 4″) from Port Alberni, to Cowichan, Nanaimo, and Duncan.

The biggest thing that could change between now and Sunday is the exact position of the strongest part of this snow. Right now, points slightly north in Qualicum and Courtenay are unlikely to get more than an inch or two… If the system shifts slightly to the north, both Alberni and the North Island (including Mt. Washington) might get a bit more. If it shifts south, Victoria might get more.

No matter what, if you are planning on travelling this weekend, you are going to want to be prepared for the worst. There is always the chance this snow forecast evaporates into thin air like others have… But at this point, given how strong and consistent the models have been for the past week, I think we are 80% sure to have snow on the ground Sunday morning.

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