Tue. Sep 18th, 2018

Torrential rain. Here and elsewhere

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Tuesday 18 September 2018 - Tuesday: Mainly sunny. High 19. UV index 5 or moderate. Tuesday night: Increasing cloudiness. 40 percent chance of showers overnight. Low 6. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 15. UV index 2 or low. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Thursday: Showers. High 16. Thursday night: Rain. Low 8. Friday: Rain. High 15. Friday night: Showers. Low 9. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 15. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Sunday: Cloudy. High 16. Sunday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 16.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    13.9° C
    2.8 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.05 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 0.1 km/h
    gusting 3.2 km/h
    Humidity
    78 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    13.9° C
    Heat Index
    13.9° C
    Dewpoint
    10.1° C
    UV
    3.8
    Solar
    619 W/m2
    Last Updated: 12:40:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:27
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (68% full)
    Civil Set
    19:58
    Day Length
    13:13:14
    Day High
    13.9° C @ 12:37 Tdy.
    Day Low
    7.3° C @ 02:06 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.15 kPa @ 08:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.04 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    6.9° C @ 06:11 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    13.9° C @ 12:37 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3.1km/h @ 06:15 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    824W/m2 @ 11:39 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.1 @ 12:30 Tdy.

A short update.


Now that’s rain:

Yesterday we got caught in another thunderstorm, the third in the past few weeks. And this time it came with impressive rainfall. We received at Alberniweather 12mm of rain.. Which isnt much. But, we got it in a hurry. As the graph below shows. The rain rate hit 59mm/hr.

20130918-072616.jpg

This is likely similar to the rainfall they had in Parksville a couple weeks back that caused all the flooding, in that case though, it was either just a little stronger or lasted a little longer.

To really put it into perspective though compare it to the Colorado rains that just ended. Read this excellent work comparing Colorado and Alberta.

On September 12th alone, Boulder received 230mm of rain and some areas got over 250mm in only six hours! So imagine yesterday’s downpour lasting for six hours, or a whole day. Imagine the havoc that would cause. Could it happen here? The last time we had major flooding, in 2006, we got I believe around 80mm in a 12 hour period. So roughly 1/3 what the event in Colorado produced. We don’t have the strong influence of the tropics or the extreme height of the Rockies to provide, and squeeze out, all that moisture. But if a similar low pressure area stalled over us and sent us wave after wave of moisture for a week or more, we likely wouldn’t be having any fun, especially if it happened in springtime with the freshet.

There is a presentation at Char’s Landing (the old church across from City Hall) by Keith Hunter of First Nations Wildcrafters. He’ll be talking about forests, it’s ancient and modern uses in our area, current practices, and maybe a bit about how current practices combine with changing weather patterns to change what we experience. Check it out, it starts at 7PM.

Wet Friday

Next major weather for us will be Friday when what looks like a small, but strong, vigorous front moves across the Island.

The green is rainfall accumulation of 25mm, over 3 hours.
20130918-074247.jpg

It will get to us by late morning Friday. It might be a little windy on Thursday before the front gets here too.