Sun. Dec 9th, 2018

The Warmup that Never Happened – The Freeze up that Will

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Sunday 09 December 2018 - Sunday night: Showers ending before morning then cloudy. Amount 5 to 10 mm. Low plus 3. Monday: Cloudy. Rain beginning late in the afternoon. Temperature steady near plus 4. Monday night: Rain. Amount 10 to 15 mm. Low plus 5. Tuesday: Rain. High plus 5. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 2. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High plus 5. Wednesday night: Rain. Low plus 4. Thursday: Rain. High 9. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 3. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7. Friday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 4. Saturday: Rain. High 8.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    6.4° C
    -0.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.57 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NE 0.4 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    Humidity
    100 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    6.4° C
    Heat Index
    6.4° C
    Dewpoint
    6.4° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    23.4 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:24
    Moon Phase
    New (7% full)
    Civil Set
    16:59
    Day Length
    12:11:40
    Day High
    7.3° C @ 14:47 Tdy.
    Day Low
    2.0° C @ 00:56 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    7.4mm/hr @ 04:02 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    102.19 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.35 kPa @ 07:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    0.1° C @ 04:27 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    7.3° C @ 14:47 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 7.8km/h @ 11:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    93W/m2 @ 12:50 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.6 @ 12:37 Tdy.

So did we all enjoy yesterday’s little surprise? We might have another, perhaps more dangerous, surprise today and tomorrow. More below:

I know more than a few that didn’t enjoy yesterday.

What we had yesterday was what we were expecting a few weeks ago but never happened. A bunch of cold air got trapped in the Alberni Valley and instead of maybe a little wet snow flying followed by a bunch of rain, we got enough snow to cause 4 hours or so of chaos (5cm) and then a whole bunch of rain to turn it all into a flooding mess. Thankfully it doesn’t look like the City had any ill effects from the rapid melt.

Here are three temperature graphs from the Islandweather.ca network.
AlberniWeather.day.temperature
AlberniElementary.day.temperature

VIU.day.temperature

Alberniweather, Alberni Elementary School, and Vancouver Island University. The two Alberni stations show brief hints at warmth late on Tuesday but both quickly returned to their posts near or just above freezing (and so did the Airport). By contrast, VIU started warming much earlier in the day and hit over 7C around midnight and stayed there.

We got a couple little hints at the warm air that was flowing over our heads, but it just never happened. But wait, here’s something even more strange, look at the same graph from Maquinna Elementary:

Maquinna.day.temperature

Ah micro-climates… aren’t they fun?

The danger over the next day or so will be the freeze up. We are still hovering at just above freezing which means much of the snow never really melted especially the parts that did manage to get plowed and piled up.

That means it’s probably going to be melting all day and when the cold comes tonight and tomorrow it is going to freeze.

Beware of icy conditions on Thursday

The Cooldown should begin late Wednesday night. We should start around 0C Thursday Morning and go down from there.

slp.36.0000

There is also some residual moisture in the air which means there is a possibility we will get some more drizzle or flurries over the next 24 hours until things finally clear out and cool off. Thursday, Friday and Saturday all look like pretty clear, crisp winter days. Lets hope they turn out that way and that the ice isn’t too bad.

-6 on Friday! Brrr!